Confectionery plan. What will the owner of a confectionery store have to face. Organizational form and taxation system

Such stores are characterized by a high level of competition, but, despite this, such entrepreneurial activity is very profitable.

Before the confectionery can be sold, several milestones, because if even the slightest mistake is made, the business may cease to exist.

Project description

Often a pastry shop looks like a small cafe where you can find delicious pastries and drinks, sit at a table and taste these goodies or buy takeaway products. Such an institution does not involve long gatherings, therefore, a large room is not needed, because the flow of customers is quickly replaced.

The place is only needed to accommodate shop windows and a small number of tables and chairs. For the location of the production workshop, an adjacent room is usually used, the territorial area of \u200b\u200bwhich is somewhat larger.

If placing a mini-bakery and a cafe in the same room is not possible, then they can be located separately, but at the same time, it is necessary to think over the organization of the delivery of finished products to the place of sale - it must preserve both the presentation and taste.

It can also be a simple store that sells confectionery products purchased from third-party organizations.

You can distinguish an institution from the background of the rest with the help of the original name, author's recipes for cakes or specialization in baking (selling) of any one product. For example, the menu may include only puffs with a variety of toppings.

Often, a modern client can only be attracted by something unusual, so you should not get hung up on standard products. Offer the customer something they have never tried before. Anything can be unusual - both the form of baking and the combination of toppings.

You can watch a useful interview with the owner of such a business in the following video:

Market and competition analysis

According to statistics, the sale of food has always been profitable. Confectionery, although not included in the category of essential goods, still sells well. Of course, cakes scare away many buyers with their high prices, but not a single holiday or anniversary is complete without some kind of sweetness on the table.

The main features of the Russian confectionery market are:

a short period of sale of products;
huge assortment;
complete dependence of the manufacturer on the quality of the supplier's raw materials;
the tradition of consuming home-made baked goods;
a large selection of local raw materials used as a filler (berries, nuts, fruits);
intense competition among inexpensive products and low competition in terms of natural, high-quality, expensive goods;
quantitative advantage of small business among fresh baked goods.

If you decide to organize such a project, then you should pay attention to the following important points:

if you have not yet decided what to produce, then you should take into account that the snack zone is too full, and short-term cream products are in a phase of acute shortage;
the presence of a properly selected place and a competent calculation of turnover - this is something without which it is impossible effective work point of sale;
The quality and popularity of future products depends on the right supplier.

Implementation confectionery- This is a rather specific area in which such factors as the cleanliness of the seller and the level of cleanliness in the premises are of great importance.

Such products contain a lot of sugar, which is very attractive to various insects, the presence of which scares off buyers. Given that the products are perishable products, we can safely say that negligence in relation to cleaning can significantly reduce the profitability of the establishment.

Production plan

A store that has a traditional assortment is best located near the market or children's institution. If next to suitable place there is a supermarket, then it is better to abandon this idea, since a large part of the customers will be lost. Another good accommodation option is housing area. And if you plan to sell exclusive products, then it is better to turn your attention to business and shopping centers, this will allow you to count on ordering branded cakes for any corporate events.

When drawing up a business plan, such an important point as the area should be taken into account. For example, for a store it will be enough 40-50 sq. m. However, if a small cafe area is planned, then you need to take care of the presence of an additional 10-30 squares.

The room must have communications: high-quality cold and hot water, electricity and sewerage. In addition, an effective fire extinguishing and ventilation system must be provided.

If the location of the institution is a residential building, then there must be a separate evacuation entrance and exit. You need to take the goods from the side of the building where there are no windows, and the garbage container should be no closer than 25 m.

The next item of expenditure is the purchase of equipment, since without this the effective operation of the outlet is simply impossible. In the minimum standard set you can find:

a rack, which is necessary so that the buyer can view sweets, cookies and other products;
refrigeration equipment: a showcase designed for cakes and pastries, an ice cream chest, a chamber for other products, as well as a refrigerator for drinks;
showcase, counter;
cash machine;
a computer.

In addition, each employee must have overalls. If we talk about such a format as a cafe-confectionery, then you will also need to purchase the appropriate furniture, dishes and tablecloths.

Financial plan

This section should contain information about what financial investments necessary to open an institution and adjust its work.

Expenditure part consists of costs:

on the ;
to rent or purchase equipment;
for the purchase of goods;
for the salaries of employees;
for advertising.

The size of capital investments is also influenced by the population size. So, if we talk about a multi-million city, then 1 sq. m. of the area of the future store will cost an average at 60 thousand rubles., and if about a small town with a population of 300-400 thousand people, then the amount will immediately decrease significantly - 10-15 thousand rubles.

Opening a small point will cost approximately at 600 thousand rubles., of which 30% - rent, 30% - purchase necessary equipment, 15% - purchase of products, 15% - payment of wages, 10% - other expenses.

In general, the cost side of the discovery question depends on:

from the location (the numerical composition of the city);
from the number of employees;
on the format (shop, or shop + cafe);
from the rent, transport costs and utility bills.

organizational plan

The implementation of the project initially assumes the presence of reliable suppliers of goods. An average of 300-400 thousand rubles is spent monthly on the purchase of products. The optimal range includes the following:

several types of bakery products - at least 10 types;
pies and cakes - at least 20 types;
gingerbread, waffles and cookies - at least 20 types;
cakes - at least 10 types;
jam, jam, honey - at least 5 varieties;
sweets and marmalade - at least 40 types;
chocolate - at least 20 items;
several related products - chewing gum, lollipops, etc.;
tea, coffee and a range of other drinks.

The initial assortment range should include at least 60 items. The most important thing is to ensure that the presented product has a high level of quality and is fresh. It is necessary to conclude contracts only with reliable, long-established suppliers.

When drawing up a business plan, the minimum required number of personnel should also be taken into account. Opening a store is impossible without 2 salespeople, cleaning lady and accountant(may be part-time). Among the main requirements for the seller, one can single out cleanliness, neatness and the ability to quickly choose for the client exactly what he wants. Considering that peak sales are observed in holidays, it is expedient to decide on the exit of an additional seller during such a period.

Launch Schedule

The main stages of opening can be visualized in the following table:

No. p / p	Stage name	Implementation period
1	Business plan development	March 2016
2	Registration as an individual entrepreneur	April 2016
3	Renting or buying suitable premises	April 2016
4	Purchase of equipment and furniture (if necessary)	May 2016
5	Finding suitable suppliers and concluding contracts with them for the supply of goods	May 2016
6	Start of activity	June 2016

Marketing plan and advertising

Every entrepreneur who decides to start selling confectionery products should be aware that buyers will not go to him immediately after the official opening. It takes time and some effort to promote the institution.

Distribution of flyers, containing information about promotions in honor of the opening, about the timing of their validity and how to get to point of sale. Leaflets should be handed out near the store, near the nearest metro stations or other transport stops, but no further than 500 meters from the establishment.
Present. It can even be a symbolic candy or chocolate bar - the buyer will be pleased.
Guerrilla Marketing. The principle is extremely simple: a specially hired person walks the nearby streets and asks passers-by if they know about the newly opened store. In this case, you need to pronounce the full name and the main product - this information a potential buyer will remember involuntarily.

When the work of the institution is in full swing, you can leave a well-designed signboard and periodic advertising in the media. mass media(Internet, local newspapers and TV).

Risk Analysis

This section can be called the most important, because, as you know, "forewarned is forearmed."

Risks are usually associated with:

with an unstable supply of raw materials;
with unstable demand;
with wear and tear of equipment;
with an unstable political situation (strike, war);
with natural disasters (earthquake, flood, etc.).

There may also be a risk for one of the following reasons:

the sales market has not been sufficiently studied;
competitors were underestimated;
the demand for the product has fallen sharply.

You can reduce them by:

detailed market research;
minimizing contacts with unknown suppliers;
analysis of financial and economic activities;
property insurance.

Dear visitors of the site, below is an example of a business plan with economic calculations cafe-confectionery. This document compiled by professional economists and can be used to adapt to your project. If you have any questions or you do not find the section you need, or you have questions about its preparation or formation of calculations, you can always contact us via mail, the VKontakte group or by leaving a comment on the business plan.

Business plan summary

Name of the project: "Creation of a cafe-confectionery"

The goal of the project is to create a successful profitable cafe-pastry shop for middle-income visitors.

Initiator of the project

The initiator of the project is an already existing network of cafes and restaurants. This cafe-confectionery is a way to diversify your business. The project will be implemented by one initiator.

Investment costs

As part of the project, it is planned to conclude a lease for a room in the city center. Its repair under the design project of the company, the purchase and installation of equipment, the design of the cafe. The total cost of investment expenses will be 2,300 thousand rubles. including the cost of equipment, repairs, the cost of acquiring raw materials and maintaining the enterprise until it reaches the payback point.

Construction work will be carried out by a company that has been operating in the construction services market for a long time and has proven itself well when opening previous cafes.

The equipment will be supplied by an enterprise that is a dealer of one of the domestic manufacturers of equipment for the production of confectionery and commercial equipment. The company is fully responsible for the supply and installation of the equipment, and also gives a guarantee for the equipment for 3 years.

Project financing

The project will be financed from its own funds (30% of the total investment) and from loans (70% of the total investment). As part of the project, a loan in the amount of 1,610 thousand rubles will be received. at a rate of 15% per annum with an annuity repayment schedule for 5 years. As part of the loan, a pledge will be issued for the premises of one of the cafes owned by the project initiator.

Based on the estimated income and expenses, a project payback model was built, on the basis of which the following performance indicators were obtained:

Inflation - 10%;
Simple payback period - 4.75 years;
- 5.67 years;
NPV - 3,063 thousand rubles.

These indicators indicate that the project is interesting in terms of payback and may be attractive to investors.

Suppliers of raw materials and materials

The suppliers of raw materials and materials will be large raw material companies of the city, with which the cafe chain has already established long-term and mutually beneficial relations. Some types of cafe raw materials are taken directly from manufacturers. All raw materials and materials are brought directly to the cafe, so there is no need to distract staff and there is no need to spend money on delivery.

Products

Within the framework of the project, products will be manufactured and sold, which we have divided into the following product groups:

Cakes
Pies and pie
cakes
Macarons
Cookie
Marmalade and marshmallow
Tea, coffee, water
Alcoholic products

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Investment plan

Investment size

The volume of investments in the project is 2,300 thousand rubles. and consists of the following costs:

Naming of expenditures	Sum
Business Registration and Permits
Creation legal entity	1 000
Obtaining permission from Rospotrebnadzor	10 000
Obtaining permission from the State Fire Supervision Authority	2 000
Obtaining a license for alcohol	10 000
Repair work
Design layout development	20 000
Repair work	1 000 000
Fire and security alarm installation	50 000
Video surveillance installation	70 000
Power supply repair	200 000
Repair of water supply and sewerage	160 000

Shop equipment
Showcases	60 000
Cash machine	12 000
Furniture for visitors (tables, chairs)	130 000
tablecloths	20 000

Equipment for the production of
coffee machine	50 000
combi steamer	30 000
Mixer	10 000
Blender	10 000

Marketing Campaign
Opening time decorations	10 000
Distribution of leaflets and business cards about the opening	10 000
Making a sign	60 000
window dressing	7 000

other expenses
low value equipment	60 000
Raw materials for production	30 000
Investments before reaching the breakeven point	278 000

TOTAL	2 300 000

The opening of the cafe-confectionery is planned to be carried out six months after the start construction works. The work schedule is shown in the diagram below:

room

For the work of the cafe-confectionery, a room was chosen in the city center, which meets all the norms and requirements of the SES and state fire supervision. A long-term lease agreement has been concluded with the owner of the premises. The contract implies a rental holiday for 6 months - the time of repair. Subsequently, the rent will be 100,000 rubles. VAT included.

The premises has the following rooms:

Production room and kitchen;
Changing and rest room for staff;
Director and management staff room;
Hall for visitors;
Wardrobe;
Bar counter;
Warehouse of raw materials and materials.

The layout of the room is shown in the figure below:

Also below is a layout of equipment and a layout of tables in the hall for visitors:

The cafe's opening hours will be limited from 10-00 to 22-00 due to the fact that this is the time when the flow of customers provides the revenue necessary for the operation of the enterprise.

Manufacturing process

In the production and sale of products, the following process will be used and the following employees of the enterprise will participate:

The warehouse of the enterprise receives raw materials and materials for the manufacture of products, the storekeeper receives the products and draws up the relevant documents.
The chef gives the chefs an indication of what kind of products need to be made today and in what volume.
Chefs take the order to work, take the required amount of raw materials and bake products, transfer them to the bartender.
The bartender puts products on display.
The waiter approaches the visitor, takes the order and passes it to the bartender.
The bartender passes finished order waiter who takes it to the visitor.
The visitor, after eating, orders the bill and pays it.

Production cost

On the basis of technological maps and product cost estimates, the cost was calculated by product groups (the cost was calculated on average for the product group per unit of measurement of the product in proportion to the planned volume of its sale):

Cakes - 324 rubles / kg
Pies and pie - 176 rubles / kg
Cakes - 298 rubles / kg
Macarons - 452 rubles / kg
Cookies - 189 rubles / kg
Marmalade and marshmallow - 345 rubles / kg
Kishi -267 rub./kg
Tea, coffee, water - 30 rubles/l
Alcoholic products - 1000 rubles / l

Marketing plan

Competition

Today, there are about 100 patisserie cafes in the city, which is a rather low figure for a million-plus city, so the market is quite free and is just beginning to develop. The main competition for the enterprise can be coffee houses, but consumer interest in them has faded to a sufficient extent, there are quite a few new coffee houses, and the old ones practically do not invest in their further development.

Location

For the location of the cafe-confectionery, a place located in the city center was chosen. Near this place there are large shopping and office centers, whose employees will potential clients institutions. It is planned that these workers will be able to both eat inside the cafe and take confectionery with them to the office.

Range

In order to provide the highest quality products in the cafe-confectionery, it was decided not to greatly inflate the range of products, but to take only the most popular and popular products. Product groups It was also decided not to inflate due to the limited capacity of the kitchen. The range of quantities will be presented below. We will not name specific products, since over time it can change both within the group and the groups themselves, depending on fashion trends and customer tastes.

Cakes - 6 items;
Pies and shares - 10 items;
Cakes - 4 items;
Macarons - 7 items;
Cookies - 5 items;
Marmalade and marshmallow - 7 items;
Kishi -3 items;
Tea, coffee, water - 10 items;
Alcoholic products - 20 items.

Price policy

The establishment will focus on buyers with an average income level, therefore, prices will be set based on the average prices of establishments of this level. In addition, the selected range of products will help maximize the marginal profit from the sale of products.

Product prices, cost and marginal profit are presented in the table below:

Product group	prime cost (rub/kg)	Price (rub/kg)	Share (%%)	Marginal profit(rub/kg)
Cakes	324	600	14%	276
Pies and pie	176	300	14%	124
cakes	298	500	10%	202
Macarons	452	900	7%	448
Cookie	189	400	19%	211
Marmalade and marshmallow	345	700	16%	355
Kishi	267	500	4%	233
Tea, coffee, water	30	200	9%	170
Alcoholic products	1000	2000	8%	1000
TOTAL	321,65	634,00	100%	312,35

Below is the sales chart:

Volume of sales

We will calculate the sales plan based on the average check for such establishments and the possible throughput of the enterprise, taking into account hours when there are few customers and peak hours. At the same time, the received monthly volume is the revenue when the enterprise reaches its full capacity (there will be sufficient fame and promotion of the institution). Until that time, this volume of sales will be subject to coefficients for the cafe to reach full capacity, as well as seasonality coefficients.

Average check enterprises are planned in the amount of 400 rubles;

The average planned number of checks per day is 100;

The calculation of the average monthly revenue of a cafe-confectionery is presented below:

"Revenue" \u003d "average check" x "number of checks" x "number of days" \u003d 400 x 100 x 30 \u003d 1,200,000 rubles.

The table below shows the seasonality coefficients for sales of similar enterprises:

The table below shows the coefficients for cafes to reach full capacity:

As we can see from the graph, for the first 8 months the company will be preparing for launch, and after the opening, it will gradually increase its revenue. The planned sales volume will be reached 21 months after the start of the project.

Advertising strategy

placement of advertisements in specialized magazines for cafes and establishments - 10,000 rubles per month;
distribution of leaflets and business cards in the first month - 10,000 rubles / month;
holding price promotions in the first month of work - 40,000 rubles;
installation of a large sign and window dressing with a facade - 120,000 rubles;
decorating with balloons inside and outside the premises at the time of opening - 10,000 rubles;
placement of stretch marks for the first 3 months of opening an institution - 30,000 rubles. production, 15,000 rubles / month for placement;
accommodation flyers in existing establishments of the cafe network - 1,000 rubles. for manufacturing.

organizational plan

It is planned that the enterprise will be opened as a company with limited liability. The founder of the legal entity will be one natural person.

To simplify and optimize taxation, it is planned to work on a simplified taxation system in the form of 15% of the “income minus expenses” base.

Enterprise personnel

The staff of the cafe-confectionery and its planned salary are presented below in the staffing table:

Job title	Qty	Salary	Prize
Director	1	30 000	10% of the company's profit
Chef	1	20 000	2% of revenue
cooks	3	15 000	1.5% of revenue
Administrator	1	20 000	2% of revenue
Waiters	6	10 000	1% of revenue
Cleaning woman	1	10 000

TOTAL		105 000

Below is a diagram of the subordination of the staff of the cafe-confectionery:

Financial plan

Input data

To calculate the payback of the project, we proceeded from the following prerequisites and macroeconomic indicators:

inflation rate - 10%;
discount rate - 11%;

Tax environment:

income tax - 15%;
contributions to social funds - 34.2%;
personal income tax - 13%;
VAT - 0% due to the fact that cafes will work on a simplified taxation system.

Project financing

In order to finance the project, it is planned to obtain a bank loan. The loan amount will be 70% of required amount investments, which is equal to 1,610 thousand rubles. The cost of funds will be calculated at a rate of 15% per annum with an annuity repayment schedule for 5 years. As part of the loan, a pledge will be issued for the premises of one of the cafes owned by the project initiator.

Project payback indicators

The calculation of the model gave the following indicators of the effectiveness of the investment project:

Model building period - 10 years;
Inflation - 10%;
Simple payback period - 4.75 years;
Discounted payback period - 5.67 years;
NPV - 3,063 thousand rubles.

This suggests that the project is interesting from the point of view of investment and has an interesting return on investment for the initiator of the project.

Break even point calculation

For the current structure and today's prices for the sale of products and the purchase of raw materials, the break-even point of the project was calculated, which showed that the cafe-confectionery will be able to make a profit if its revenue is more than 783 thousand rubles. per month. With an average monthly planned revenue of 1,200 thousand rubles. this is quite an achievable indicator and will be achieved by the 7th month of the enterprise's operation.

conclusions

This calculation of an example of a business plan for a cafe-confectionery shows good payback rates, so this project is interesting from an investment point of view and may be of interest to both private investors and credit organizations.

Fragrant croissants, bright pastries and breathtaking cakes, hidden behind the glass of pastry cafes, delight the eye and heart. The very thought of a beautiful cozy pastry shop evokes a sense of celebration. That is why there are many who want to open such an institution in order to work in an easy atmosphere and get good money for it.

But by no means any business is what it seems at first glance, and the dream confectionery is no exception. In order for a business to generate income and pay off, you need to make a lot of efforts and foresee a lot of “pitfalls”. Novice businessmen will have to say goodbye to illusions already at the stage of preparation for the opening, because a confectionery that is so desirable for you may turn out to be completely unnecessary for other townspeople. Therefore, before embarking on an opening, study the market.

Where to begin?

There are two possible paths here. The first of them is to order a full-fledged marketing research in specialized company. This option is only suitable for those who are not limited in money: the price of the study is quite high. For example, in Orenburg it is about 90 thousand rubles. For this money, you get a complete report on existing competitors, including their products and pricing policy.

For those who have every penny in their account, it is better to resort to the second way of studying the market - to do everything yourself. There are no special difficulties in this. First you need to identify similar points in the city and go around them, personally buy products in them and try it, and also take a closer look at what others are buying.

It will not be superfluous to look into large supermarkets, where there is own production baking and confectionery. This will allow you to better understand what people are buying and in what volume.

After such a campaign, you should form an idea about your target audience.

It is best to pay attention to such an audience as mothers with children.

The fact is that in recent years there has been a demographic boom, many children are being born. Over time, they grow up, but there is, in fact, nowhere to go with them. Therefore, any business, one way or another focused on children, is quite promising.

Once you have decided on the portrait of your buyer, it will be much easier to solve the issue of pricing. The price of products, and all other nuances of the business, will depend on which format of the confectionery you choose. Here again, there are two possibilities.

The first- confectioneries of a lower price segment, which offer an assortment for every day: the types of products most popular with buyers.

Second- premium confectionery. In such establishments, the price tag is higher due to the use of more expensive ingredients. And they can be expensive for a number of reasons, for example, because all products are only natural - no ready-made mixtures used in conventional confectionery - or because these ingredients are rare in Russia.

Investment size

Investments in this business can to a large extent vary depending on the format of the confectionery. Opening a full-fledged cafe-confectionery, designed for the average consumer, will cost no less than 3 million rubles. This amount will include the rent of a room in a residential area, repairs, as well as the purchase of equipment: a refrigerator table, a freezer table, several stoves for 4 burners, an induction cooker, two baking display cases, a bread display case, a coffee machine.

Selling bread in a pastry shop will allow you to "lure" more customers - people often buy cakes by going to the store for bread, but they go directly for sweets less often.

Prices for such equipment will vary greatly depending on its type and supplier. According to experience, the cost of the most necessary is about 650 thousand rubles:

217 thousand rubles per showcase,
64,000 rubles - for a refrigerator table,
77.7 thousand rubles - for a freezer table,
168 thousand rubles - for "induction",
122.6 thousand rubles - per stove.

How much you spend on the purchase of consumables depends on what kind of confectionery you plan to cook and sell.

Where to get money?

Obviously, even 3 million rubles is “hidden” by far not every budding entrepreneur. Therefore, before those who want to open their own confectionery, the question arises: "Where can I get the money?". And here you can go in several ways: borrow from relatives or friends, get a loan from a bank or apply to various business support institutions for a grant.

From personal experience

To open a confectionery, you have to take out a loan. The likelihood that you will be given a grant when you are just about to open a company is very small. It is worth contacting the support fund when your business is already running. A gratuitous grant will make it easier for you to pay off your loan. Keep in mind that getting a grant is a rather troublesome business: you need to prepare a lot of documents, come to the commission and prove to it that you want to work, that you are the best and that you have grandiose plans. All this takes a lot of time and effort, but still brings results.

Pastry shop expenses

Investments in the confectionery business are quite large, but it will not be possible to reach profitability immediately. Therefore, at first, and possibly in the future, the entrepreneur will want to save on current expenses. To understand what you can save on, you need to know the main items of expenditure.

First of all, the owner of the confectionery will have to spend monthly on rent, payroll and utilities. By the way, the costs for the last item will be quite large: a lot of electricity is needed to operate ovens, freezers and shop windows. But it is on it that you can save. To do this, first of all, you need to work with the staff, set it up for savings and rational use technology.

A large article of financial losses is associated with the write-off of products. What is written off, as you know, is no longer suitable for sale. But the problem is that not only “out of condition” or expired goods can be written off, but also quite good products and finished goods. But they will not go to the trash, but home to unscrupulous sellers and confectioners.

To minimize this possibility, the issue of write-offs must be carefully controlled. To do this, you will have to constantly analyze sales, watch seasonal surges or recessions, maintain a special schedule-calendar, based on the work of the last month, last week and last year. Such a schedule should always be in front of your eyes. Only such scrupulous control allows you to save on write-offs.

Step-by-step instruction

As mentioned above, in order to open your own confectionery, you first need to analyze the market. This will help determine whether your city needs a confectionery at all and what kind it should be. After the analysis has been carried out, it is already easier to choose the format: economy or premium. Keep in mind that there is not much room for expansion for a premium candy store. If working with the economy, you can eventually build up a whole network, then a city with a population of one million will be enough for one or two establishments with premium sweets.

After you analyze the market and choose the format, you need to start looking for suppliers of equipment and raw materials. Equipment suppliers must be selected both by price and by reviews. For the latter, you can always turn to the forums of entrepreneurs, this will help you learn necessary information. Even if after reading you still have some questions, you can always write a message to one of the participants in the discussion to clarify how this or that device behaves in production.

Advice

It will also not be superfluous to contact equipment repair companies. A conversation with the master will help you understand which manufacturer's equipment needs repair most often. It is better not to purchase the most "unstable" models: the cost of their repair can cover all profits.

As for raw materials, here again everything depends on the chosen format of the confectionery. In economy, it is better to work with ready-made mixtures. Such "powdered" products are now produced for almost everything: biscuits, bread, cheesecakes, etc. Cooking from such mixtures is faster and easier, your pastry chef has almost no chance of spoiling the products.

The premium segment involves working with "live" products, and this implies additional difficulties. Confectionery products require strict adherence to proportions and recipes and do not tolerate any experiments or connivance. Accordingly, the likelihood of an all-natural cake being spoiled by too much baking powder or insufficiently beaten eggs is much higher than when working with powders.

For beginners, it is preferable to work with ready-made mixtures.

Many people start with this, and later switch to natural products, because it is more interesting for confectioners by vocation to work this way.

Whatever you choose - powders or natural products - you need to choose suppliers of raw materials according to approximately the same criteria. The first thing to pay attention to is the composition. The more natural it is, the higher the quality of the products. The second is taste. Before buying a large batch of powders or milk, you need to taste the products. If you decide to make a "fashionable" institution where everything is made from farm products, you must visit farming and assess its condition, see in what conditions animals are kept or cereals and fruits are grown.

It will not be superfluous to start looking at the staff for the confectionery in advance. You will need both the confectioner directly and the sellers. Moreover, the latter are no less important for the case. The seller must monitor the labeling of products, their expiration date. He also monitors compliance with the temperature regime and cleans the products in the refrigerator.

For the seller, he will have to prescribe from A to Z the entire algorithm for working and communicating with customers: he must know the assortment and pass certification for this knowledge, he must know “clichés” - certain words for communicating with a guest, especially a guest who has come for the first time.

In addition, the seller must understand where he works. Yes, yes, and this is not just about the name of the confectionery. He must know the main features of your confectionery, understand how it differs from others.

Given that the bakery is open daily, you will need at least two pastry chefs and two sales assistants. They can work according to the schemes "2 working days - 2 days off" or "3 working days - 3 days off". The choice of such a scheme is not accidental. Firstly, your confectionery must have a certain mode of operation. It is important to open before the visitors working on a standard five-day work day begin their working day. Many of them drive their children to school by 8 am, and then stop by the candy store for coffee and breakfast while there is time before work. The same applies to work in the evening.

You have to "hook" people who are hurrying home and decide to stop by on the way for pastries. Therefore, there is absolutely no point in closing at 6 pm, it is better to work until 8-9 pm.

At the same time, the staff is in the confectionery not only directly during working hours. Usually employees arrive about an hour before opening. This time is spent on turning on and warming up the coffee machine, bringing the frozen semi-finished products to readiness so that there are fresh pastries by the opening, putting everything on the display case. But even immediately after closing, the staff does not leave, because there is still a lot of things to do: cleaning, closing the cash desk and calculating revenue, etc.

In parallel with the search for staff, you need to choose a room for a confectionery, and the requirements for it will again largely depend on the chosen format.

The premium-segment confectionery is the best place - in the city center, although rent there is more expensive. So you will not only “hook” people walking and relaxing who are ready to spend money on sweets, but also those who are ready to come from a remote area for some kind of culinary masterpiece.

More simple pastry shops with the most popular assortment and modest prices are best placed in a residential area. Good place also in shopping malls with good attendance. A particularly good solution is to place such a confectionery at the exit of the supermarket.

Also, the first floor of a residential building is quite suitable for accommodation. Confectioneries, as a rule, do not cause any complaints from the neighbors. After all, there is no loud music, no alcohol - nothing that irritates the tenants of the house. Although it is still better not to open a pastry shop in a high-rise building. According to the rules, food production must be equipped with ventilation and exhaust. The latter should be displayed two meters above the roof level.

According to the requirements of the legislation, the confectionery must comply with the requirements of the SES for the enterprise Catering. However, in practice, no one imposes too strict requirements on confectionery.

The rules that are written in the documents are very outdated. Therefore, each entrepreneur adapts the existing premises to the concept that he has chosen for himself. But there is no super complexity with the choice of premises in terms of repair.

The area of the confectionery depends mainly on your capabilities. For example, we have a small point for the sale of confectionery in the shopping center, fitting in 15 square meters. m. This is our smallest confectionery. And the largest one occupies two floors: on the first one you can buy takeaway cakes or drink coffee right here at the table, and on the second floor, the confectioner is engaged in cooking.

Much more important is the condition of the room. It must have ventilation, water and electricity. To get started, you will have to invite the SES, which will check the premises for "suitability" for the organization food production. In addition, SES will have to conclude an agreement on laboratory and production control. This means that officials will take samples of your products and check if they are safe.

In addition, the premises must comply with the requirements of fire supervision, so contracts will also have to be concluded with this authority. The confectionery is a fire hazardous production, because powerful ovens work in it. Therefore, a fire alarm must be installed. You also need a second entrance in case of emergency.

The documents

Any business requires mandatory registration. A cafe-confectionery can be registered both as an LLC and as an individual entrepreneur. The second form is still preferable because it is easier to work with. LLC is mainly needed by those establishments where alcohol is sold, and the confectionery does not imply this.

But working as an individual entrepreneur, you can, for example, abandon the cash register. At the same time, not only the cash desk itself is obligatory for the LLC, but also a special contract for its maintenance.

For an individual entrepreneur, all costs associated with taxes will be significantly lower.

For example, when working as an IP, you can use patent system taxation, which will allow you to do without regular deductions of personal income tax, VAT and property tax of individuals. Instead, it is enough to buy a patent and forget about going to the tax office for the entire period of its validity. This move saves both money and time.

Also, when registering a business, it is worth knowing that according to OKVED, a confectionery passes as “Production of bread and flour confectionery products of non-durable storage” and has code 15.81.

Now all communication with the SES and Rospotrebnadzor is of a notification nature. That is, to open a confectionery, you do not need to obtain any permits, you just need to notify the sanitary services that you are.

By law, an inspection from the SES or Rospotrebnadzor can only come to you after three years of work, and during this time it is quite possible to have time to get on your feet and eliminate some minor flaws, if any. But keep in mind, in the event of a complaint from visitors or neighbors, if you opened in a residential building, services will descend upon you immediately. When gross violations they can shut down the establishment for 90 days, which is a huge loss. Therefore, it is better to work according to the rules.

To do this, you will need to conclude an agreement with disinfestation and deratization stations. According to it, the confectionery will be treated from pests and rodents.

* Calculations use average data for Russia

3 142 000 ₽

Starting investments

2 300 000 - 5 500 000 ₽

1 000 000 - 3 400 000 ₽

Net profit

Payback period

There is practically no competition in the field of premium confectionery in Russia, which makes it promising to organize a business designed for an audience with a high income level. To open a cafe-confectionery in this format, 3.14 million rubles will be required, which can be paid back within six months.

1. Summary of the project "Cafe-confectionery"

The goal of the project is to open a cafe-confectionery in the premium price segment in St. Petersburg. The project involves the production and sale of a wide range of confectionery products. The confectionery is located on a rented area in the central part of the city, in close proximity to tourist routes. The positioning of the project is carried out in the segment of environmentally friendly handmade products. The maximum capacity of the cafe is 30 people, the total area is 100 m2.

The main success factors of the project are:

wide original assortment and carefully developed recipe

using only natural ingredients

handmade, full production cycle without semi-finished products

good cafe location

active cooperation with online services that provide services of tourist guides around the city

Investment costs are aimed at the acquisition of fixed assets, the implementation of the launch advertising campaign, as well as the formation of a working capital fund, the funds from which are used to cover losses until the project reaches payback.

Table 1. Key performance indicators of the project

2. Description of the company and the confectionery industry

Confectionery - high-calorie and easily digestible food products with a high sugar content and a pleasant taste and aroma. Usually produced using the following ingredients: flour, sugar, honey, fruits and berries, milk and cream, fats, eggs, yeast, starch, cocoa, nuts and so on. A distinctive feature of the confectionery market in Russia is the high quality of theoretical and practical base, which is a direct legacy of the USSR. Even taking into account the tendency to reduce the cost of mass production, the quality Russian products significantly higher than the quality of Western counterparts.

The features of the Russian confectionery market include:

Short lead time for products

Difficult logistics due to long distances and quality of transport infrastructure

Complete dependence of manufacturers on the quality of the raw materials used (however, this is typical not only for Russia)

The tradition of eating homemade cakes

A wide selection of local raw materials for fillers, and in each region it can be unique berries, fruits, etc.

High level of competition in low price segments and its almost complete absence in the premium segment

In the baking segment, the main players are small businesses

The main business models used today by market players are:

Production of confectionery products and their sale through their own retail chains(or through counterparties) - while the revenue is maximum, but both costs and financial risks are high

Production of products to order ("white label") - due to this, the costs of implementation are reduced, but there is no direct communication with the consumer, which makes it difficult to respond to the requests of the end client

Production of products and its sale through a franchise network is a plus here in minimizing sales costs, but there are reputational risks associated with the franchisee's action

Professional kit for creating business ideas

3. Description of goods and services of the confectionery

The cafe-confectionery produces a wide range of confectionery products. All production is carried out in-house using only natural high-quality ingredients. Semi-finished products, flavoring and aromatic additives are not used in the production. The assortment of the bakery is quite wide and can change over time within certain price limits in accordance with the taste preferences of visitors. The range is given in Table. 2 grouped by main categories.

Table 2. Bakery assortment

		Description	Price, rub./pc.
	Meringue in assortment	Light cake of whipped proteins with the addition of berries
	Cakes are simple	Biscuit cakes "poppy", "medovik", "sour cream" and others
	Cakes premium	Cakes with fruit and berry or nut fillings (for example, fruit baskets)
	Cakes in assortment	Biscuit-cream cakes with butter or sour cream, cheesecakes
	Desserts in assortment	Strudels, jelly desserts, ice cream
	Drinks in assortment	Soft drinks and cocktails: tea, coffee, fresh juices, non-alcoholic cocktails

4. Sales and marketing of a coffee shop

Cafe-bakery is positioned in the premium segment. The target audience- men and women (mainly) aged 25 - 50 years with an income level above 60,000 rubles; guests of the city (60-65%) and residents of the city (35-40%). Despite the fact that most of the cafe visitors are city guests who do not visit the same establishment again, brand development makes sense from the point of view of forming a pool of loyal customers from residents. cities. This will ensure the necessary loading even in the low tourist season. To do this, it is necessary to conduct image events and increase brand awareness.

Various tools are used for promotion. A website for the bakery is created, which hosts a menu with prices, contacts, photos of the interior and team, photos and videos of the production process, news and Special offers. AT in social networks advertising pages are created that post announcements of articles from the website, as well as contests and sweepstakes to maximize audience involvement. Social media also collects feedback from visitors.

The main online tool is contextual advertising for such keywords as "cafe", "bakery", "cafe-bakery" in combination with the location query "Petersburg", "St. Petersburg", "Peter" and so on. In addition, information about the bakery is marked on the Yandex and Google mapping services. It is also expected to cooperate with a number of mobile applications that act as a guide around the city and mark sights and useful places. To attract potential visitors from the tourist traffic, a pavement sign is used indicating the route to the cafe, located on the avenue with a large number of tourists.

The competition in the field of confectionery is quite high, but it is in the premium segment that the market is most free. In the area where the cafe is located, two main competitors can be distinguished, operating in a similar price segment and having an approximately similar assortment. However, none of them position themselves as a manufacturer of environmentally clean products; both competitors in some cases use frozen dough, semi-finished products, food additives. With the correct declaration of project positioning, this can provide significant benefits. In addition, competitors are located in places less accessible to tourists and are focused mainly on city residents.

Demand for the project's products has a pronounced seasonality. On the market as a whole, the lowest level of demand is noted in the first half of the year, then demand rises in summer, a slight decrease occurs in October-November. In December, the level of demand is maximum. However, in the case of a project, the seasonality factors are slightly different. The maximum level of demand is predicted in the summer months, due to the massive tourist traffic, the greatest decline will occur in early spring and late autumn. The seasonality factor is taken into account in the formation of the annual sales plan and financial plan.

The capacity of the cafe is 30 people or 15 tables. The average check from the table is 1,600 rubles. The planned sales volume is calculated based on a table turnover of 1.5 hours and a maximum room load of 80%. With a 12-hour workday and daily work within a month it turns out: 12 / 1.5 * 15 * 30 * 1,600 * 80% = 4,608,000 rubles per month.

5. Plan for the production of a cafe-confectionery

The cafe-bakery is located on a leased area, previously also used as a catering establishment. It meets all the requirements of supervisory authorities, has all the necessary communications. The total area of the premises is 100 m 2, of which 60 m 2 are allocated for the cafe.

Equipment, utensils and furniture are purchased from a supplier that provides comprehensive solutions in the field of catering. The equipment is new Russian and Italian production. In addition, the supplier, for a fee, develops a project for engineering communications, a design project for a room, technological maps and recipes for dishes. The supplier carries out delivery, installation and commissioning of equipment, training of personnel.

Raw materials are purchased from local suppliers cooperating with manufacturers. AT without fail strict input control of raw materials is carried out for compliance with its requirements of the project in order to ensure the maximum High Quality products. All production during the working day is made from blanks made at the beginning of the day. Unused blanks at the end of the shift are written off and not used during subsequent shifts.

6. Organizational plan of the confectionery

IP was chosen as the organizational and legal form. Subject entrepreneurial activity is registered with all supervisory authorities in accordance with the Legislation of the Russian Federation. The form of taxation is UTII, the physical indicator is the area of the visitor service hall (60 m 2), the regional coefficient k 2 = 1.

The entire project implementation process can be divided into three main stages: the preparatory stage, the growth stage and the maturity stage. During the preparatory stage, equipment is purchased, its installation is carried out, and the developed recipes are tested. At the same time, recruitment and training of personnel takes place. The highest demands are placed on bakers and confectioners. The approximate duration of the preparatory stage is three months.

At the growth stage, the project services are actively promoted, a pool of loyal customers is formed from among the residents of the city, recipes are developed, and the taste preferences of visitors are studied. The duration of the stage is six months. At the stage of maturity, operating activities are carried out within the planned financial indicators. The current monitoring of the results is carried out, the necessary adjustments are made.

Organizational structure enterprises is quite simple. All major management functions are performed by the project initiator. For this he has everything necessary knowledge and skills, has experience in the field of catering. The organizational structure is shown in Fig. 2.

Figure 2. Organizational chart of the enterprise

Table 3. Staffing and payroll

№	Job title	Salary, rub.	Quantity, pers.	FOT, rub.
Administrative
	Accountant
	Manager
	Administrator
Industrial
	Pastry baker
	kitchen worker
Trade
	Waiters

Social Security contributions:
Total with deductions:

7. Financial plan for a cafe-confectionery

The financial plan is drawn up for a five-year period and takes into account all the income and expenses of the project. Income refers to income from operating activities. No other income is provided for by the project. Revenue from the first year of project implementation – 37.3 million rubles; net profit (after taxes) - 19.6 million rubles. Revenue of the second year and subsequent years - 47.5 million rubles, net profit - 27.0 million rubles.

Investment costs amount to 3,143,142 rubles and include expenses for the acquisition of fixed assets, preparation of premises, purchase of raw materials, as well as the formation of a working capital fund, from which losses of initial periods are covered, until the project reaches payback. Own funds of the project initiator - 1.7 million rubles. The lack of funds is planned to be attracted in the form of a bank loan for a period of 36 months at 18% per annum. The loan is repaid monthly in annuity payments, credit holidays are three months.

Table 4. Investment costs

	NAME	AMOUNT, rub.
Real estate
	Room decoration
Equipment
	Equipment set
Intangible assets
	Design
	Design project
	Website development

working capital
	working capital
	Purchase of raw materials

	Own funds:	1 700 000
	Required borrowings:	1 443 142
Bid,%:
Term, months:

Variable costs include the costs of ingredients used in the preparation of products, as well as water, gas and electricity used in the production process. To simplify financial calculations, variable costs are calculated on the amount of the average check at a fixed trade margin of 300%.

Fixed costs include rent, utilities, advertising, agent commissions ( mobile applications, online guide services), as well as depreciation charges. The amount of depreciation deductions is determined by the straight-line method, based on the term beneficial use fixed assets and intangible assets in five years.

Table 5. Fixed costs

A detailed financial plan is given in App. one.

8. Evaluation of the effectiveness of the project "Cafe-confectionery"

Evaluation of the effectiveness and investment attractiveness of the project is based on a detailed analysis of the financial plan, cash flows, as well as simple and integral performance indicators (Table 1). To account for the change in the value of money over time, the discounted cash flow method is used. The discount rate is 20%.

Simple payback period (PP) - 5 months, discounted (DPP) - 6 months. Net present value (NPV) – 3.3 million rubles. Internal rate of return (IRR) - 31.5%. Profitability index (PI) - 1.06. All these indicators at a sufficiently high discount rate indicate the prospects of the project, its effectiveness and investment attractiveness.

9. Guarantees and risks

To assess all the risks associated with the implementation of the project, a detailed analysis of all internal and external factors is carried out. To internal factors problems related to the quality of the recipe and the quality of work can be attributed production staff as well as the operation of the equipment. In the first case, it is necessary to constantly monitor the quality of products, receive feedback from visitors and take corrective measures. In the second, holding current maintenance equipment in order to maintain its maximum performance, since its initial quality is not in doubt.

To external factors can be attributed to the activities of competitors, in the first place - the entry of new players into the market. In this case, active work is needed to form a pool of loyal customers, increase brand awareness at the stage of enterprise growth.

Denis Miroshnichenko
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Profitability calculator for this business

Capital investments: 1 123 100 rubles,
Average monthly revenue: 535,000 rubles,
Net profit: 57,318 rubles,
Payback: 23 months.

A feasibility study for opening a business in the field of food production - a mini-bakery, which can be used as a model for writing a business plan, as well as an example for calculating the economic feasibility of starting a business.

Target: Justification of the feasibility and effectiveness of organizing a business for baking bakery products.

Project description

Project idea: mini-bakery

The idea is to open a mini-bakery specializing in baking bakery products in the city of "N" (population 270 thousand people).

Range.

Planned range:

Butter buns (8 types)
cupcakes
Bagel products
Bagels
cottage cheese

Competition

Currently, in the city of "N" there are 2 bakeries and 3 mini-bakeries, all of which specialize in the production of bread products (bread).

In this regard, the mini-bakery to be opened will specialize in the production of bakery products (100% assortment). Main competitive advantage- Selling only fresh baked goods.

Organizational form and system of taxation.

Organizational and legal form of doing business: " individual entrepreneur". Form of taxation: Simplified taxation system, income minus expenses, 15%. Doing accounting: On the initial stage tax and accounting will be outsourced to a specialized accounting firm. After organizing all production processes, debugging sales, the owner of the business will keep records independently using the My Business online service.

Working mode:

The bakery will be open daily.

From 00:00 to 10:00 for employees (baker, assistant) directly involved in baking bakery products. This category employees will work in shifts, two after two.

From 7:30 to 16:30 for employees (manager, sales representative) who are engaged in the sale and sale of finished products. This category of employees will work for 5 days working week, and the weekends come out alternately.

General staffing:

Required equipment.

To organize a business, the following set of equipment for a packer is required:

	Name	Qty.	Price
	Baking oven HPE-500	1	34794 rub.
	Proofer ShRE 2.1	1	19760 rub.
	Flour sifter PVG-600M	1	21708 rub.
	Dough mixer MTM-65MNA	1	51110 rub.
	Hearth LEAF for HPE 700x460	20	584 rub.
	Umbrella 10x8	1	7695 rub.
	Single-section washing bath	1	2836 rub.
	Two-section washing bath VM 2/4 e	1	5744 rub.
	Refrigerated CABINET R700M	1	24420 rub.
	Confectionery table SP-311/2008	1	13790 rub.
	Wall food table SPP 15/6	1	3905 rub.
	Portion scales CAS SW-1-5	1	2466 rub.
	Portion scales CAS SW-1-20	1	2474 rub.
	Rack SK	1	6706 rub.
	Cart hairpin to HPE TS-R-16	1	17195 rub.
Total expenses for the purchase of bakery equipment:			226283 rubles

Sales channels

Main marketing channel: small Retail Stores located in the city of "N" and nearby settlements. Sales through network (regional and federal) grocery stores in 2013 are not planned.

Project Implementation Plan

Calendar plan

According to calendar business plan mini bakeries, the company launch period is 2 months. All stages associated with the opening of activities are in the area of responsibility of the business owner.

Stage name							Mar.13
Stage name	1 decade	2nd decade	3rd decade	1 decade	2nd decade	3rd decade	1 decade
1 Registration of activities in the Federal Tax Service, print order
2 Opening a current account
3 Conclusion of a lease agreement for the production workshop
4 Payment for equipment (baking line, car, inventory)
5 Repair of the premises in accordance with the requirements of the SES for food production, connection to the power grid, other expenses
6 Coordination with SES shop premises
7 Line installation, installation supervision, commissioning, trial baking
8 Coordination with Rospotrebnadzor of the recipe, specifications and product instructions.
9 Recruitment
10 Conclusion of an agreement with suppliers and buyers
11 Getting Started

The total cost estimate for the implementation of the project:

Item of expenses	Amount of expenses, rub.	Note
Registration of activities in the IFTS	15 000	State duty, printing order, opening a bank account, other
Cosmetic repairs of the premises, bringing the premises in accordance with the requirements of the SES	100 000	-
Acquisition of equipment for baking bakery products	223 104	-
Purchase of vehicles	450 000	Bread van for 128 trays on the base, car GAZ-3302, 2010
Acquisition of tableware	30 000	-
Recruitment (advertising)	5 000	-
Creation inventory	50 000	-
Working capital (financing activities before reaching payback)	150 000	-
other expenses	100 000	Connection to power grids, approval of technical specifications and technical specifications for products
Total	1 123 104

According to the calculations, investments in the amount of 1.1 million rubles are required to open a business.

Planned financial performance indicators.

Planned revenue and profit for 2013-2014.

According to the organizational plan, the start of the company's activities is scheduled for March 2013, and self-sufficiency is expected in May 2013.

The company's activity is seasonal, the peak of sales falls on the period September-November and March-April, in the remaining months there is a seasonal decrease in revenue.

Expenditure part.

The cost part of the bakery activity includes the following expenses:

The cost of manufacturing products. This line includes the cost of purchasing flour, yeast, margarine, sugar and other ingredients.
Variable costs. Wage employees based on output (12% of revenue)
General expenses: This group of expenses includes expenses for wages of employees (a fixed part), social contributions, rent for the workshop premises, fuel and lubricants, machine repairs, utility bills, administrative expenses, accounting expenses, as well as other expenses.

Planned distribution structure Money received from buyers for 2013-2014.

Expenditure
Expenditure
The cost of manufacturing products
The salary of employees is a variable part (depends on output)
fixed costs
Profit before tax

Calculation of return on investment.

Project start: January 2013
Start of operation: March 2013
Reaching operational break-even: May 2013
Achievement of forecast revenue: June 2013
Payback date of the project: November 2014
Payback period of the project: 23 months.

Opening risk analysis

The process of implementation and further operation of the project may be complicated by a number of risks and negative factors, which are given in the analysis of risk factors and opportunities for the operation of a mini-bakery. To determine the degree of influence of these risks and their danger to business, we will conduct a qualitative and quantitative analysis.

Qualitative indicators are determined by an expert assessment of the likelihood of a threat. Quantitative analysis shows the degree of impact of risks in actual terms.

Qualitative project risk analysis

The entire risk zone is divided into an external one, where the influence of the general economic situation and events not related to the business management process, and internal, which directly depends on the effectiveness of the organization of management and business implementation.

Table 1. The main external risks of the project

Name of risk	Risk assessment	Risk Characterization and Responses
Raw material cost increase		The risk will lead to an increase in the cost of production and a decrease in the marginal part of the income. Risk compensation occurs by increasing the selling price of products or by revising the weight requirements. To level the risk, it is necessary to constantly monitor the supplier market and conclude long-term contracts.
Opening N direct competitors in the city		When direct competitors appear, the existing market capacity is proportionally divided into participants, which leads to a decrease in sales. To overcome the risk at the organizational stage, it is necessary to conduct a policy of detuning from competitors, maintain consumer loyalty.
Seasonal decline in sales		The risk entails a decrease in the average annual sales figures, increases the cost of maintaining staff, and leads to fluctuations in the intensity of the use of production equipment. The risk is leveled by a competent advertising and organizational policy.
Change at the state level of regulatory requirements for bakery products		The risk may lead to a revision of the production flow charts and assortment base.

All external risks can be mitigated by developing a crisis management strategy at the organizational stage of the business, maintaining competent positioning and constant contact with the buyer.

Table 2. Main internal risks of the project

Quantitative risk analysis of the project

All external and internal risks have a single negative consequence - a decrease in profits. The reasons for the decrease in profits can be:

an increase in the raw material cost of production due to an increase in prices for materials, raw materials, labor;
opening direct competitors who will be able to win their own market share;
decrease in consumer demand due to unsatisfactory quality and service, as well as seasonal.

A quantitative analysis of investment risks can be carried out using the sensitivity analysis method using the internal rate of return (NPV) as the main parameter. However, having experience data specific to a particular market (city N with a population of 270,000), we use the method of practical calculation.

The degree of impact of the increase in raw materials cost and increase in selling price

Calculated by calculating the elasticity of demand. With an average cost of products (buns (8 types), muffins, lamb products, bagels, cottage cheese) within the range of 19-23 rubles, an increase in the final price will have the following indicators:

Thus, we see that with a low average cost of products, a rise in price may lead to a slight increase in demand (due to consumer expectations), and a rise in price by 20-25% (a significant increase in commodity prices that do not fit into the framework of annual inflation) will lead to loss of an average of 4.5% of buyers. The risk has a low quantitative value.

The degree of influence of the competitive environment

To calculate the degree of influence of competition, it is necessary to conduct a detailed analysis of the competitive environment and calculate the market share of each operator. The emergence of a new player always entails a redistribution of shares, at the first stage this happens at the expense of the weakest representatives of the industry. In our case, the project involves the use of contractors (distribution channels - small retail stores located in the city of "N" and nearby settlements), which protects against direct competitor exposure in long-term and tough contract terms(exclusive partnership).

With a total market share of 6%, the degree of influence of a new competitor has a relative share of 1.2% - this is how much a mini-bakery can lose when opening a similar enterprise in the sales area.

Degree of influence of seasonality and level of service

Taking into account the average seasonal decline in the sale of bakery products in the summer within 10-15%, and the main requirements of buyers for products,

Project Risk Ranking

The most probable are the marketing and seasonal risks of a decrease in demand, which may be initiated by an increase in the cost of raw materials and the opening of direct competitors. These are the most critical threats, which should be anticipated at the stage of organizing and implementing a business idea.

The relevance of the mini-bakery business plan

General trends

To date, the bakery market in Russia has not yet been established due to the revaluation of values and the general trend of environmentally friendly and healthy food. Over the past ten years, traditional varieties of bread and bakery products have significantly given way to recipes borrowed from the West: croissants, baguettes, croutons, ciabatta, cereal bread and much more. Habitual tin bread, capital loaf, rye and Darnitsa, Moscow, bran and Borodino, as well as other varieties produced by municipal bakeries, have lost their top positions, and now the distribution of consumer attention falls in equal shares on traditional offers and borrowed ones (52% to 48%):

Dynamics of growth in consumption of bread varieties

i.e., if back in 1970 Western trends had little influence on the choice of buyers who preferred Soviet-made products, then since the 1990s there has been an increase in the influence of Western technologies and the emerging commercial competition, which has significantly expanded the range of bakery products. By the 2000s, traditional breads had lost more than half of the market. This is largely due to the transition of post-Soviet industries into private hands, which picked up the trend and began to produce fashionable and sought-after products.

	1970	1995	2000	2010	2013
Traditional varieties
Borrowed

By 2010, the growth dynamics had slowed down, the consumer began to lose interest in foreign formulations. In addition, the state policy to support national values also influenced the formation of a relative balance: now there is an equality of assortment choice between tradition (familiar varieties) and borrowing. As for the bakery group, the trends here are similar.

The main trend of the market of bread and bakery products in the current period is healthy food, freshness, naturalness. Own bakeries at supermarkets have gained great popularity, where aroma marketing works perfectly: the smell of fresh baked goods ensures high sales. Traditional factory bakeries are popular with the older generation due to familiar image action and range.

According to the Information and Information Center Informkonditer, Russians most often buy bakery products at specialized outlets (branded bakery stores, bakeries) and as related products in supermarkets.
Since 2010, there has been a positive growth trend in the production of confectionery products in Russia, which are internal competition for bakeries, displacing them from store shelves.

The level of competition and foreign manufacturers

Domestic and foreign goods are represented on the Russian bakery market. The share of imports is no more than 22%. The main suppliers are Finland and Lithuania. In total, according to statistics, about 28 thousand enterprises are engaged in the production of bakery products on the territory of the state - for the most part these are representatives of medium and small businesses.
If we consider the structure of production, then the bulk of bakery products falls on factories:

The structure of the production of bakery products

About 75% of all traditional bread production is occupied by a “social” product. The regular segmentation of bakery products from large manufacturers is the ranking by category:

Core of production (up to 80%) bread- the traditional assortment includes up to 25 positions;
Minor production: baguettes and loaves - about 5 items;
Additional production:
- non-traditional and borrowed varieties of bread, lavash, crispbread, etc. - up to 10 positions;
  bakery products and pastries - about 25 items.

Despite the intense competition in the industry, the niche of bakery and fancy products remains unfilled, which appeared due to the redistribution of zones of influence between manufacturers:

large factories focused on the production of bread and do not pay due attention to the bakery assortment. They do not have a wide enough distribution network for rolls. This is due to high logistics costs and competition with supermarkets, which are more profitable to sell their own baked goods;
bakeries in supermarkets, in turn, cannot compete in all consumer segments, and sell bakery products as secondary spontaneous purchases. Those. they do not allow the production of factories (in full), but also do not satisfy the demand with their volumes.

Due to this, the main competition in the production and sale of the bakery assortment takes place among private bakeries. The main tools for successful competition in such an environment are an understanding of the buyer's values and a competent sales system.

Consumer motives and values

According to the results of the analysis conducted by the Institute of Agricultural Marketing, the main selection criteria for the purchase of bakery products (in descending order):

freshness;
appearance;
price;
package;
manufacturer.

The choice of the place of purchase of bakery products and muffins occurs according to the principle of one-time (all products in one place) or passing: proximity to the place of consumption - home, work, educational institution.

In cities with over 100 thousand people, there are already formats that have their own mini-bakeries. This has increased the influence of retailers on the market structure, since such private production of retailers withstands the basic requirements of freshness and low prices. But among the most successful formats for promoting bakery products, experts call regional grocery stores, discounters and supermarkets.

But it should be borne in mind that the products of bakeries will not displace the products of large manufacturers, since the latter offer a “social” range of traditional products. Competition can take place in the format of a segmented approach (children's series, women's low-calorie, environmentally friendly, saturated with useful elements, etc.).

conclusions

Due to the redistribution of values, non-traditional recipes for bakery products (borrowed, new, etc.) are very popular today - this enables new market operators to conquer their own segment due to the original assortment.

Competition and forced cooperation between bakeries and hypermarkets has led to the fact that the niche of bakery products is not filled and cannot yet satisfy the existing demand.

The production of bakery products for a mini-bakery can be profitable and successful if the marketing system is properly developed and focused on the expectations and values of the consumer.

Implement own products better through district stores (deli format near the house / school / university) or discounters.

Potential competition bakery products can be confectionery products, the growth of which has been observed for the fourth year already. To mitigate the risk, strategic planning should take into account the possibility of expanding the range of confectionery products.