When one person comes to mind a good idea, and he begins to successfully deal with it, then soon he will have followers who offer analogues. And together, all these entrepreneurs influence the situation that is developing in the market.
What is called conjuncture?
There are several definitions for this term. Within the framework of the article, five of them will be presented, which consider the phenomenon of "conjuncture" from different points of view. What is it according to economic textbooks:
- This is the name of the ratio that has formed between the supply and demand of both individual goods and their groups in terms of their mass (in quantitative or monetary terms) of the total number of products.
- Specific economic situations that develop in the market in a certain period of time. It reflects the current balance of supply and demand.
- The set of conditions that determine the market situation.
- The state of the economy in this moment time, which is determined by various targets.
- The result of the interaction of various factors (natural, social, managerial, technical), the influence of which determines the position of the company in the market.
Analysis of the conjuncture of each individual subject is carried out taking into account a number of features. Thus, it is mandatory for markets to take into account mutual influence and interaction with other structures of this type (or located on the territory of other countries). It must be understood that each subject has a close connection with the general economic situation that exists in a single country or even a whole region.
What is needed to study this phenomenon?
We know what conjuncture is. What is informing for a full understanding of the process is not enough - I think you also noticed. Therefore, we will pay attention to a number of additional information. So, when studying market conditions, it is necessary to analyze:
- Demand indicator for a product.
- The market share of various enterprises.
- Indicators material production, which make it clear about the number of offered goods on the market, its capacity and saturation level.
Characteristic
The conjuncture of the enterprise is determined by a set of conditions due to which the market situation is formed at a given point in time. Therefore, based on the state of affairs, it can be of two types:
- High conjuncture (favorable). Its feature is a balanced market, as well as a growing or stable (at least) sales volume. Also, prices are in equilibrium.
- Low conjuncture (unfavorable). Its peculiarity is the market with characteristic features an imbalance in which there is no or reduced demand. This is accompanied by significant price fluctuations, a sales crisis, as well as a shortage of goods.
A clear boundary between the induced definitions is not provided. Therefore, as an addition, they can talk about a lively, developing, stable, stagnant, regressing market.
Indicators
These are indicators by which specialists and experts evaluate market conditions. What does this mean in practice? Prices, inventory indicators (which may act as relative or absolute indicators) - these are the indicators that tell specialists and experts what position the market is in. Moreover, the specificity is such that judging everything only by one of them is not a promising matter. They must be taken into account as a whole. So, if there is an increase in the number of transactions, but sales volumes are at the previous level, then this means that it is not the market that is recovering, but a large number of small firms have entered it. A similar role is played by the occurrence of a deficit or surplus. inventory. So, their formation suggests that a sales crisis and inflation are looming.
What are the main indicators of market conditions?
Thanks to them, a superficial analysis can be carried out:
- The ratio of supply and demand for a product (service).
- Market development trend.
- The level of volatility (or stability) of the market.
- Degree of business activity.
- The scale of market transactions.
- The scope and strength of competition.
- The impact on the market situation of a certain phase of the seasonal or
- The level of commercial risk.
If it is necessary to investigate the situation more deeply, a number of other parameters are used, the choice of which depends on the goal. We will return to them.
Subject, subject and tasks in the study of market conditions
These are important components necessary for high-quality processing of the result:
- Subject. It is understood as the study of mass processes and phenomena, due to which a specific market situation is determined, which can be assessed qualitatively and quantitatively.
- Subject. They serve as various commercial structures(in this case they say that there is a marketing conjuncture), public organizations, government bodies and scientific institutions.
- Tasks:
- Collect and process business information.
- Describe the scale of the market.
- Identify development trends.
- Assess and analyze the main proportions of the market.
- Analyze fluctuation, seasonality and cyclical development.
- Assess regional differences.
- Monitor business activity.
- Evaluate
- Monitor the intensity of competition and monopolization of the market.
Secondary indicators
Their use depends on the goals of the research. In general, the following indicators exist and are used:
Offers of services and goods:
- Volume, structure and dynamics of production.
- Potential and elasticity of supply.
Consumer demand for services and goods:
- Volume, dynamics and degree of satisfaction of requests.
- Consumer potential and market capacity.
- elasticity of demand.
Market proportions:
- The ratio of supply and demand.
- The structure of trade.
- Division of the market between the manufacturer and wholesalers and retailers.
- Distribution by form of ownership of product sellers.
- The ratio between and consumer goods.
- Regional structure of the market.
- The distribution of buyers based on their consumer characteristics (age, income level, and so on).
Prospects for the development of the studied market:
- Rates of growth and gain in sales, inventory, profits, investments, prices.
- Trend options.
Fluctuation, stability and cyclicality of the market:
- volume of sales, prices, inventory in a certain time period and in some territory.
- Parameters of models of cyclicity and seasonality of functioning of subjects and the environment of their interaction.
Regional development of the market and its condition:
- Variations in the ratio of supply and demand depending on the territorial characteristics.
- Regional level of requests per person.
Business Activity:
- Composition, fullness and dynamics of the portfolio of orders.
- The number, size and frequency (and its changes) of transactions.
- Workload of production and trading facilities.
Commercial risk:
- Rationality of investments.
- Risk of marketing decisions and market fluctuations.
The level of competition and monopolization:
- The number of firms in the market for a particular product. Their form of ownership, organization and specialization is also taken into account.
- The distribution of firms according to their volume of production, sales and marketing.
- Level of privatization (number of such enterprises, their share in the market volume, organizational form).
- Market division (grouping companies by their size or share in total sales).
These are the conjuncture factors. But economic sciences are constantly evolving, so it is not a fact that in a few years this list will be incomplete.
World conjuncture
This is the most difficult and at the same time the desired level. There is no single center of conjuncture here. So, if we talk about the stock and currency markets as specific examples, then here as the places where the greatest activity is New York, Tokyo and London. There are also large regional centers- such as Moscow and Beijing. When there is a change in the conjuncture under the influence of certain trends or decisions taken by governments, this affects the whole world to one degree or another. That's just the difference in their influence is different.
Conclusion
We have considered the situation. What is it, you have an idea how and on the basis of what indicators the concept of it is formed. Of course, this is not all information on this topic. This article is purely informational, and formulas were not placed in it, according to which various parameters are calculated. And half of all subheadings, if they are well opened, could fit many times larger volumes than this text has.
The concept of conjuncture
With the help of market conditions, the competitiveness of the company's products and services is determined. The market environment includes:
- Corresponding relations between supply and demand for certain products and their groups, as well as for commodity and money supply.
- A specific economic situation that develops in the market at a certain point in time or period. This situation is able to reflect the current relationship between supply and demand.
- The result of the interaction of some factors, including economic, social, natural. This interaction determines at a certain point in time the position of the enterprise in the market.
- The state of the economy at a particular point in time, which corresponds to changes in various economic indicators.
If we consider the conjuncture of a single market, then it is necessary to take into account the interaction and mutual influence of other markets. Each market is in close relationship with the general economic situation in the state and region. For this reason, the analysis of a particular market must be based on an assessment of the overall economic situation in the country as a whole. The market situation is investigated and involves the analysis of market indicators, including market capacity, market saturation level, market share of the enterprise, indicators of demand for products, indicators of the situation, which reflects the supply of products on the market.
Features of the conjuncture
Remark 1
Market conditions include a system of conditions that determine the market situation at the appropriate time. Favorable, high market conditions are characterized by a balanced market, growing sales, equilibrium prices.
Unfavorable, low market conditions are characterized by signs of market imbalance, lack or decrease in demand, sharp fluctuations in prices, sales crisis, shortage of goods.
Experts do not distinguish a clear boundary between these definitions, while each state is characterized by certain quantitative characteristics of the conjuncture.
In the course of assessing the market situation, specialists and experts can rely on certain market indicators, among which are the price, inventory, and business activity indicator. These indicators can be expressed both in absolute and relative terms. Markets cannot be judged by only one specific indicator, they must be taken into account in a complex.
Market indicators
Market indicators include:
- The relationship between supply and demand,
- trends market development,
- the degree of stability or instability of the market,
- the scale of market transactions, including the degree of business activity,
- the level of commercial risks,
- strength and scope of competition,
- the existence of a market in a certain phase of the cycle, both economic and seasonal.
These characteristics of the market can be quantified, so they are the subject of statistical study. The subject of market conjuncture statistics are mass processes and phenomena that determine a certain state of the market situation. Such indicators can be quantitatively and qualitatively assessed.
Among the subjects of market research, the following can be distinguished:
- commercial and market structures,
- government bodies,
- public institutions,
- scientific organizations.
The main task of market statistics is to collect and process market information, characterize the scale of the market, assess and analyze the main proportions, identify development trends, analyze seasonality and cyclicality of market development, assess regional market differences, business activity, commercial risks.
Remark 2
In order to implement the tasks of market conditions, an appropriate system of indicators was developed, which includes: indicators of the supply of products and services, consumer demand for products and services, market proportionality, development prospects, cyclical stability, regional differences, business activity, commercial risk, monopolization, competition.
Indicators of the supply of products and services include determining the volume, structure and dynamics of the supply, including its potential (production raw materials), elasticity.
The indicator of consumer demand for products and services includes an analysis of the volume, dynamics and degree of satisfaction of demand, including the elasticity of demand, as well as consumer potential and market capacity.
The proportionality indicator of the market determines the relationship between supply and demand, between the markets for means of production and markets for consumer goods, the structure of trade, the distribution of the market among consumers, retailers and wholesalers. Also, the proportionality of the market determines the distribution of the market of sellers in accordance with the forms of ownership, the regional structure of the market, the structure in accordance with various consumer characteristics (income level, age).
Among the indicators of the prospects for the development of the market, one can single out the growth rates and growth in sales, inventory, prices, investments, and profits. It also includes sales trend parameters, prices, profits and investments.
The indicator of business activity includes the number, size, frequency and dynamics of transactions, the workload of production and trading capacity, the composition, fullness and dynamics of the portfolio of orders.
Indicators of commercial risks include the risk of market fluctuations, investment risk, the risk of making marketing decisions.
Among the indicators of the level of monopolization and competition, one can single out the level of privatization, the division of the market, the distribution of enterprises in accordance with the size of the volume of production, sales and marketing, the number of enterprises in the market for each product, including their distribution depending on the form of ownership, organizational forms and specialization.
conjuncture(from lat. conjungere - connect, connect) - economic situation on the market at a certain moment as a result of the interaction of factors and conditions that determine the ratio of supply and demand for goods, as well as the level and dynamics of prices for them.
The need to study the conjuncture is determined by the essence modern marketing, its clear focus on meeting the needs of the market. Therefore, the assessment of the market situation is an important part of not only market analysis, but also marketing research in general. The conjuncture has a significant impact on the content of the entire marketing activities company and its position in the market. By carrying out market research, an enterprise can obtain objective information about the situation on the market and predict its development, and therefore, competitive advantages. At the same time, the level of commercial risk is reduced, the appropriate market segment or market niche is determined, the direction of diversification is chosen, the optimal price level is set, etc. commodity marketing strategy competition
Characteristic features of market conditions are dynamism, proportionality, variability and cyclicity.
The main indicators characterizing the conjuncture of the commodity market
- the scale of the market (its capacity, sales volume, the number of enterprises of various types operating in the market)
- The degree of market balance (supply and demand ratio)
- · price level
- type of market (competitive, monopolistic, etc.)
- market dynamics (changes in its main parameters)
- Degree of business activity
- The strength and scope of competition (the number of competitors, their activity)
- · degree state regulation this market
- Barriers to market entry
- commercial conditions for the sale of goods
Market analysis is designed to comprehensively characterize the market situation and give comprehensive assessment the state of the market, primarily from the position of the marketing activities of the enterprise, i.e. whether the situation is favorable for the implementation of the set goals.
Estimates of market conditions are made on the basis of market indicators - indicators that allow, alone or in combination with others, to reflect the market situation. Market indicators, in particular, include:
- receipt of goods (delivery or alternatively production volume)
- sale (volume of sales in value terms or natural units)
- commodity stocks (in value terms or in days of turnover)
- prices
- profit (or profitability)
Often, market indicators are not static indicators, but their growth rates (dynamic indices). So, on the basis of monitoring the change in commodity stocks, it is possible to carry out an indirect assessment of the proportionality of the market.
The fact is that commodity stocks are sensitive to any changes in the ratio of supply and demand. The excess of demand over supply causes a reduction in inventories, and the excess of supply over demand (or their qualitative discrepancy) is accompanied by an increase in inventories (overstocking). The stability of commodity stocks testifies to the balance of the market.
The situation on the market can also be reflected by informal market assessments, which are characteristics of buying sentiment and inflation expectations.
Market Research
When researching market conditions, it is necessary to:
- take into account the interconnections and interdependencies of economic phenomena occurring in the market
- exclude the mechanical transfer of trends identified in some markets to others, even related markets, and the general economic situation to all specific product markets
- Continuously monitor (monitor) the markets due to their dynamism
- observe a certain sequence of study: the preparatory stage, current observations of the development of the market situation, analysis of market information, development of a market forecast
On the preparatory stage the object of study, the main indicators of the conjuncture, the range of sources of necessary information are determined.
Current monitoring of the development of the conjuncture involves the collection, storage, verification, correction, systematization and primary processing of the data obtained on the state of the market under study.
The purpose of the analysis of market information is to identify patterns and trends in the development of the conjuncture of the market under study.
The conjuncture forecast gives an assessment of the prospects for the development of the market and is the basis for developing a strategy and tactics for the enterprise. The quality of the forecast is determined mainly by how deeply and comprehensively the analysis and assessment of the factors of formation and development of the conjuncture are carried out.
Topic 7. INDUSTRIAL MARKET CONDITION AND ITS RESEARCH
The concept of market conditions and its characteristics
Any marketing operation (developing a strategy, choosing a market segment, making a decision to release a new product, concluding a contract, leaving the market, changing prices, etc.) is carried out taking into account the market situation and the position of the company in the market.
The market situation is a combination of conditions and circumstances that create a specific environment, or position in the market.
The concept of market situation and market conditions are closely related. conjuncture- this is essentially a market situation that has developed at some point or a short period of time.
Market conditions(from lat. conjungere- I connect, I connect) - the state of the market or a specific economic situation that has developed in the market at the moment or for a limited period of time under the influence of a complex of forces, factors and conditions.
market analysis is an important component marketing analysis and marketing research generally. The company's position in the market, its chances of commercial success largely depend on external conditions and, in particular, on market conditions. Favorable market opportunities create a potential commercial win even for a firm with limited potential, and, conversely, an unfavorable market situation may not justify the hopes placed on the future.
The conjuncture is made up of many individual elements and actions, the development of which is subject to probabilistic laws, and is characterized by a certain range of qualitative and quantitative features that can be measured and evaluated. These features of the conjuncture make the widespread use of statistical methods collection and analysis of market information.
Market conditions can change unexpectedly and under the influence of a variety of reasons.
For example. The market has been showing signs of resilience for some time now; prices have stabilized high demand creates favorable conditions for sellers. Suddenly, a rumor is spreading about an imminent fall in the hryvnia exchange rate in the coming days: the index of inflationary expectations is changing sharply; the market reacts to the news; supply drops to zero, trade freezes.
Market conditions have four properties: dynamism, proportionality, variability, cyclicity.
Dynamism- the most important property of the market, its ability to update, grow or contract, or remain stable.
Changes in the main parameters of the market in some periods of time occur at different speeds and intensities, which leads to short-term or longer-term disturbances in proportionality of the market process, to deviations from the main development trend.
Market cycle- regularly repeating in time changes in the level, direction, speed and nature of its development.
Accordingly put forward four conceptual tasks market analysis :
analysis of dynamic patterns, trends;
Proportionality of development;
· Analysis of the stability of the market, its volatility both in statistics and in dynamics;
· analysis of market development repeatability, selection of cycles.
The state of the market can be described as system of quantitative and qualitative indicators, each of which reflects certain side market situation. We list the main indicators of market conditions:
market scale- its capacity, the volume of operations for the purchase and sale of goods (commodity turnover), the number of enterprises of various types operating on the market;
degree of market balance- the ratio of supply and demand;
market type(competitive, monopolistic, etc.);
market dynamics(changes in the main parameters of the market, their direction, speed and intensity, main trends);
degree of business activity(fullness of the economic portfolio of the company, the number and size of orders, the volume and dynamics of transactions, etc.);
stability/fluctuation level the main parameters of the market in dynamics and space (geographical and economic);
market risk level(assessment of the probability of being defeated in the market);
strength and scope of competition(number of competitors, their activity);
market cycle, i.e. market position at a certain point/stage of the economic or seasonal cycle;
average rate of profit(the sum of gross and net profit and profitability indicators).
The conjuncture of the industrial goods market is formed as a result of the interaction of factors and conditions that determine the structure, dynamics and correlation of supply and demand for them.
Unlike the general economic situation, which reflects the state of the economy of individual countries, regions or the world as a whole in a certain period, the commodity market situation characterizes current changes and fluctuations in the production and marketing of specific goods intended both for export supplies and for domestic consumption. .
For enterprises, the most interesting is the study of the conjuncture of specific commodity markets - machinery and equipment, oil, non-ferrous metals, etc. However, the conjuncture of an individual commodity market does not develop in isolation, but is closely connected with the general economic conjuncture and the conjuncture of other commodity markets. Therefore, the study of the commodity market should be comprehensive, linked to assessments of different types of markets: valuable papers, services, investments, real estate, labor, etc.
For example, according to the forecasts of the Ministry of Economy, in 2005 the external situation is expected to worsen, in particular, the world prices for metal products will fall, as well as the high level of prices for oil products. The deterioration of the external environment will stimulate the development of the domestic market.
Despite the instability of the commodity market and the endless variety of its specific manifestations, certain periods in the development of market conditions can be characterized by fairly stable ratios of the dynamics of its most important indicators and characteristics. The most characteristic types of commodity conjuncture are upward, high, downward and low conjuncture.
Main features upward conjuncture, formed in the conditions of a commodity deficit (excess of demand over supply), are the growth of commodity prices and an increase in the number of concluded contracts. High (stable) market conditions are characterized by relative stability of high prices and the greatest activity of consumers and suppliers. Both of these commodity conditions are more or less in the interests of manufacturers (sellers) of products and are collectively referred to as the "seller's market".
bearish conjuncture due to overstocking of the market (supply exceeds demand) and is characterized by a decrease market prices, a reduction in the number of concluded contracts, as a result of which the market enters a state of low (sluggish) conjuncture, the main features of which are consistently low prices and passivity of market entities. These two states of the commodity conjuncture are called the "buyer's market", since the reduction and subsequent stabilization of commodity prices correspond to the interests of consumers of the goods.
The term conjuncture comes from the Latin word "conjungo" - "I connect, I connect." Market conditions, or market conditions, are a specific economic situation that has developed in the market at the moment or for some limited period of time, reflecting the current supply and demand ratio. Market conditions determine the commercial value and competitiveness of goods and services.
The concept of the market situation includes:
The degree of market balance (supply and demand ratio);
Formed, outlined or changed tendencies of its development;
The level of stability or fluctuations in its main parameters;
The scale of market transactions and the degree of business activity;
Level of commercial (market) risk;
The strength and scope of competition;
The state and position of the market at a certain point in the economic or seasonal cycle.
In the economic literature, along with the above definition, there is another understanding of market conditions:
Market conditions are a set of conditions that determine the market situation.
Market conditions are the result of the interaction of various
factors (economic, social, natural) that determine the position of the firm in the market at any given time.
Market conditions - the current state of the economy
time, determined by changes in various economic indicators, etc.
Conjuncture-forming factors can be grouped as follows:
Permanent (changes in the conditions for the development of the economy of the country, region; the influence of monopolies; scientific and technical progress; the influence of the public sector of the economy; inflation). All these factors can be predicted with a relative degree of correctness and
predict.
Non-permanently acting (stochastic change in external
economic and political conditions, seasonality of production or
delivery of products; natural disasters, local conflicts;
influence of competitors, etc.). These factors are difficult to predict, and
they are taken into account (accepted) after the fact.
In the practice of marketing, there are: general economic conditions and the conditions of individual sectors of the economy or individual commodity markets. If the first characterizes the state of the country's economy as a whole for a given period of time, then the second studies current changes and fluctuations in the production and marketing of individual specific goods.
The solution of the segmentation problem ends with the selection of the target market. The choice of the target market must be given serious attention, since the effectiveness of all subsequent activities of the enterprise depends to a large extent on the choice made. Before making a decision on the choice of a particular market as a target, it is necessary to answer the following questions:
What are the needs and expectations of consumers?
Is the company able to meet them?
Can the firm do it better than its competitors?
Will she achieve her goals?
To do this, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:
Determine the potential of the local market segment, which is characterized by its quantitative parameters, i.e. capacity. It shows how many products and at what total cost can be sold on it, how many potential consumers are there, on what area they live, etc. The capacity of the market for industrial goods (machinery, equipment, technologies) is estimated by analyzing development trends and investment policy of industries consuming these goods. In the absence of such information, market capacity can be determined by considering past sales trends and extrapolating them, adjusted to the current period. For example, a supplier of subassemblies needs to know the statistics of annual sales of products that include these subassemblies.
The process of creating strategies for selecting target markets and positioning consists of the following steps: market segmentation and subsequent analysis of consumer segments; selection of target segments; selection and implementation of a positioning strategy for each target segment. There are two main approaches to identifying target markets, the first of which is based on market segmentation, and the second is based on offering a wide range of products.
Factors influencing the choice of target markets include:
Market maturity stage;
The degree of diversity of consumer preferences;
Industry structure;
Capabilities and resources of the company itself;
W competitive advantage companies.
Segment materiality assessment involves determining how realistic a particular group of consumers can be considered as a market segment, how stable it is in terms of the main unifying features. It is necessary to find out whether the needs of the segment are stable in relation to the proposed product. Otherwise, you can get into a segment where competitors have a strong position, or offer a product with fuzzy, blurry address characteristics that will not be recognized by consumers. Target marketing is the selection of segments that best meet the needs of the company. The choice of the target market occurs in three enlarged areas.