The main trends in the development of modern international trade. Modern trends in the development of international trade in goods and services. Commodity structure of exports

Course work

on the topic:

"The main trends in the development of world trade".

Moscow

2010

Page Introduction 3

Chapter 1. The main directions of development of world trade.

clause 1.1 general characteristics modern international 5

trade.

p.1.2 Liberalization and protectionism. 8

p.1.3 Regionalism and regional structure in modern

system. 10

p.1.4 Industries international trade. 16

Chapter 2. Analysis of the main indicators of foreign trade. clause 2.1 Commodity structure export. 19

Clause 2.2 Commodity structure of imports. 26 Chapter 3. Changing the position of countries in the world market and

their world economic relations with Russia. p.3.1 Russian-Asian economic relations. 30 p.3.2 Russian-American trade relations. 31

Conclusion 39

Bibliography 41

Introduction.

One of the most remarkable features in the development of international economic relations of the 20th century is the strengthening of the role and importance in them from the beginning of the 60s of the former colonies and dependent territories - the current developing states, or as they are often called "liberated states", countries of the "third world" , "countries of the South", countries of the "Periphery".

Developing countries are becoming full-fledged and one of the most important subjects of international economic relations. The formation and development of young states was accompanied by quantitative and qualitative changes in the international economy. These changes were expressed in the growth of international trade and economic relations, the emergence of new commodity and financial markets, and the intensification of capital and financial flows. Developing countries loudly declared the need to improve the world economic order, to respect the principles of equality in international business.

For this group of countries, the origin of the economy has its own specifics, arising from the development of their culture and economy. Considering the constant growth in the number of developing countries and their huge share in the world's population, it is obvious that they are of great, and in a number of parameters, key importance for all mankind.

Important role, which determines the position of developing countries in the world economy, play foreign economic relations. Their development profiles not only the relationship with other subsystems, but also the degree of impact of the latter on the domestic market.

Participation in world trade is one of the necessary conditions for obtaining financial and technological resources to ensure economic growth. The foreign trade of developing countries is characterized by high growth rates and significant changes in the commodity structure, reflecting shifts in the economy. A qualitatively new feature of their exports was the growing share of finished industrial products. Certain shifts were also outlined in the geographical orientation of foreign trade. One indicator of this has been the expansion of South-South trade relations among the developing countries themselves. From the end of the 80s. Developing countries are ahead of developed countries in terms of foreign trade growth rates.

This topic is quite relevant today. Its relevance lies in the fact that today the trade turnover of developing countries is increasing every year. The question arises whether the developing countries, with the current dynamics of international trade, will be able to dominate the world market, or whether the industrialized countries will take all possible measures to prevent the entry of third world countries into the world's leading markets.

In this term paper my main goal is to review the current state of trade in developing countries and try to determine the prospects for their further development. And also in the course of the analysis, nevertheless, answer the question: “What measures are developing countries taking to change their position in the world market?”. There are several points of view in modern literature. That is why this topic is very interesting for me and in the course of its research, I would like to form my own opinion, which serves as an answer to this question.

For a more complete disclosure of this topic, I have identified the main tasks:

Studying the direction of development of world trade;

Analysis of the most important indicators of trade;

Consideration of world economic relations between developing countries and Russia;

Chapter 1. The main directions of development of world trade.

1.1 General characteristics of modern international trade.

The need for foreign trade is caused by the uneven development of various industries in different countries. The products of the most dynamically developing industries, which cannot be sold on the domestic market, are exported abroad.

Structural shifts taking place in the economies of states under the influence of the scientific and technological revolution (STR), specialization and cooperation industrial production strengthen the interaction of national economies, which contributes to the intensification of international trade.

External, or international, trade is the exchange of goods and services between different countries, associated with the general internationalization of economic life and the intensification of the international division of labor in the conditions of scientific and technological revolution.

Since the second half of the twentieth century, when international exchange acquires the so-called. "explosive nature", world trade is developing at a high pace. The evolution of foreign trade in the second half of the XX century. characterized by overcoming the main consequences of the disorganization of world trade, the political decolonization of most of the newly-free countries, shifts in the world market in connection with the scientific and technological revolution, fuel and raw materials, monetary, financial and economic crises.

At the present stage of development of the world economy, there is a tendency towards an unlimited expansion of the size of production, while the capacity of the domestic market is limited by the solvency of the population. Therefore, production inevitably outgrows the boundaries of domestic demand and the entrepreneurs of each country are fighting hard for foreign markets. Due to the ever-increasing consumption of raw materials, all the resources available in the world are needed by almost every country in the world.

According to research by the World Trade Organization (WTO), for every 10% growth in world production, there is a 16% increase in world trade, and thus create more favorable conditions for its development. When there are disruptions in trade, the development of production also slows down. one

The pace of development of world trade has increased significantly over the past two decades. The increase in the pace of trade development has affected many developing countries, most of which, however, have experienced only modest growth. In particular, the share of the least developed countries in international trade decreased from 1.7% in 1970 to 0.6% in 2007.

Differences in trade development between states are largely explained by the type of trade in which they are engaged. High value-added goods and services, especially if high technology and highly skilled personnel are used to produce them, can significantly increase trade profits, as some East Asian states have demonstrated. Poverty in these countries has fallen by 40% by the start of the 21st century, and GDP per capita has tripled over the past two decades.

Particular attention should be paid to the consequences of the development of international trade for the economies of countries with a changing supply of factors of production. Increasing the export of raw materials for developing countries may not always lead to a favorable result. The expansion of exports of raw materials for countries whose economic growth is associated mainly with this resource can lead to a deterioration in the terms of trade and a decrease in the well-being of the nation. The rapid increase in exports of raw materials leads to such a fall in world prices for this product that it offsets the positive effect of economic growth.

The organization of international trade, its structure and dynamics largely characterize the national economy, its problems and development prospects. Many factors influence the dynamics of world trade turnover. This is the expansion of production, the deepening of the international division of labor, the phase of the world economic cycle and other components that affect the aggregate demand of developed countries. These countries are the main exporters and importers of goods and services, and most of their trade is in mutual trade. Crediting, liberalization of foreign trade, integration, exchange rate and other factors also influence the dynamics of world trade.

The interest of individual countries in expanding their international relations is explained by the need to sell products on international markets, the need to obtain certain goods from outside, and, finally, the desire to extract more high profit in connection with the use of cheap labor and raw materials from developing countries.

Modern world trade has the following features:

the unprecedented scope of international commodity exchange under the influence of scientific and technological revolution and the deepening of its internationalization. The growth in the volume of international trade is caused by such factors as a radical change in the structure of the energy balance of developed industrial countries, an increase in the consumption of petroleum products, an increased demand for machinery in connection with the industrialization of agriculture, as well as an increase in the pace of industrial, transport and energy construction in developing countries. This was facilitated by the expansion of foreign trade exchange between industrialized countries, which is largely due to the creation of regional trade and economic blocs as a result of the integration process;

progressive changes in the geographical distribution of international trade, which is manifested in an increase specific gravity developing countries in international trade;

dynamic development of international trade;

a change in the trade structure of exports under the influence of scientific and technological revolution, which accelerated the objective process of the international division of labor and caused an increase in the exchange of science-intensive products, finished goods and services. In general, changes in the structure of merchandise exports are characterized by the fact that in recent years the share of finished products, whose share is more than 2/3 of the value of world trade;

the emergence of new industries and industries, which caused the growing dependence of a number of countries on the import of certain types of raw materials, especially non-ferrous metals, oil, and gas;

the establishment under the influence of scientific and technological revolution of deep and stable technological ties between enterprises of different countries for the production of products of the machine-building, chemical, electrical and electronic industries.

Modern international trade is gradually losing its inherent features of simple implementation on foreign market a certain surplus of production and is increasingly reduced to pre-agreed deliveries of goods between cooperating enterprises in different countries.

The development of the international market for goods and services is increasingly affecting the economy of each country. There are more than 200 in the world independent states. The strengthening of interdependence between them has led to the fact that their economic well-being is no longer determined by the size of the territory and the capacity of the domestic market. Even the smallest of them can successfully supply their goods to the international market. According to the definition of J. Sachs, “the economic success of any country in the world is based on foreign trade. No country has yet managed to create a healthy economy by isolating itself from the world economic system.”

Analysis state of the art international trade makes it possible to identify the following main trends in its development in the context of globalization.

· Strengthening the role of international economic organizations in the regulation of international trade in goods and services. The development of trade rules on the international market is carried out primarily within the framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO), which, as of July 1, 2009, included 153 states. An important role in the regulation of international trade is played by such financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

Under the influence of the process of globalization and its main actors - TNCs - there are further changes in the geographic directions of commodity flows. The share of developing countries in world trade has increased significantly, especially at the expense of China and the newly industrialized countries. Some decrease in the share of developed countries in world trade, transfer by transnational corporations modern production and part of sub-supplies to developing countries does not mean the loss of the leading position of economically strong countries. This is evidenced by their leading role in the production and exchange of high-tech products and the further development of mutual trade, especially within the framework of intra-industry production specialization and cooperation.

However, attention is drawn to the fact that the competitiveness of the products of developing countries is growing. One of the most notable changes in the direction of world trade in the second half of the 20th century is that the proportion of manufacturers producing export products in developing countries as a whole rose from about 25 percent to over 75 percent by the end of the 1990s.

· The growing role of regional integration associations in the regulation of international trade . Over the past 15 years, the world has witnessed a truly explosive nature of the process of concluding agreements on regional integration. As of October 2003, 285 RTAs (including BTAs) have been notified to the WTO, of which 189 have entered into force. In addition, a further 60 agreements are expected to have entered into force and have not yet been notified. Most of them are preferential trade agreements, and only 14 of them are listed as customs unions or common markets. A significant number of RTAs have been created in Europe, and recently the most active distribution of such agreements takes place in the countries of the Asia-Pacific region.

More than half of world trade is now carried out within existing or emerging trading blocs, and almost every country in the world is a member of one or more regional integration agreements. The most integrated market in the world is the European Union: in 2007, according to the World Trade Organization, 68% of trade transactions took place within it. Trade between NAFTA countries accounted for slightly more than half (51%) of North American Free Trade Agreement exports. Other trading blocs such as MERCOSUR, Andean Community or ASEAN show less explicit integration. In 2007, MERCOSUR countries made about 14% of foreign trade transactions within the agreement, Andean Community - 8%, ASEAN - 25%. Regional integration agreements provide for discrimination against countries that are not members of these agreements, while at the same time contributing to a more sustainable development of the national economies of the member countries.

· TNCs are driving the expansion of global flows of goods, services and investments , which today there are more than 71 thousand.

To date, TNCs control up to half of world industrial production, 65% of foreign trade, as well as approximately 4/5 of patents and licenses for new equipment, technologies and know-how. TNCs control 90% of the world market for wheat, coffee, corn, timber, tobacco, jute and iron ore, 85% for copper and bauxite, 80% for tea and tin, 77% for bananas, natural rubber and crude oil. Half export operations The United States is carried out by American and foreign TNCs. In the UK, their share reaches 80, and in Singapore 90%. The core of the global economic system is made up of about 500 TNCs with virtually unlimited economic power (Table 7).

At present, no state in the world can successfully develop without integration into world economy. Moreover, there is a direct proportional relationship between the degree of integration into the world economy and the level of development of the domestic economy. As a rule, the more integrated a country is in the global economic space, the higher the level of development of its domestic economy, and vice versa.

In the modern world economy, foreign economic relations are an important exogenous (external origin) factor that has a significant impact on the dynamics and sustainability of the development of the national economy, the formation of its structure, and the effectiveness of its functioning.

For many countries in the world, dynamic development foreign economic relations became a catalyst for domestic economic growth. In particular, for the newly industrialized countries, foreign economic relations have become the main structure-forming factor in the process of forming in them a dynamic model of sustainable economic development.

Foreign economic relations play a special role in global integration processes. Dynamism, liberalization, diversification of forms and types of foreign economic activity are characteristic of the present stage of development of world economic relations.

One of the important trends in the development of world economic relations is the diversification of forms of cooperation. In addition to the traditional forms of foreign economic relations - foreign trade and investment cooperation - scientific and technical cooperation, industrial cooperation, monetary, military and technical cooperation, tourism, etc. have been actively developing in recent years.

The main form of world economic relations is still foreign trade, which, in terms of dynamics and cost indicators, is ahead of the movement of capital and other types of foreign economic relations. In addition, the growth rate of international export-import operations exceed the growth rate of world industrial production.

After 5 years of rather moderate growth and stagnation in 1993, the volume of world trade since 1994 began to grow at a rather high rate. The growth rate of world trade in 1994 amounted to 9.5%, which is a record figure for the last 20 years.

According to preliminary data, in 1995 the volume of world trade increased by 8%. The intensification of commodity exchange was facilitated by significant progress in the development of the international division of labor. In addition, a significant factor in the growth of international trade has been the continued favorable environment in many developing countries and especially in the newly industrialized countries.

The impetus for the rapid development of world trade was the revolution in the field of information technologies. The value of exports of office and telecommunications equipment increased by 25% in 1995 and reached 12% of the total value of world trade.

An important factor in the growth of world trade is a significant increase in the re-export of manufactured goods manufactured in developing countries using components and materials imported in accordance with systems of trade preferences.

Industrialized countries control more than 70% of world trade. The world's largest trading powers are the United States, Germany and Japan, which account for about a third of the world's export-import transactions. The ten largest trading countries in the world include France, Great Britain, Italy. Canada, Hong Kong, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg. In recent years, there has been a steady upward trend in the share of developing countries in world trade and, above all, the newly industrialized countries of Asia. In terms of the total volume of foreign trade ($920 billion in 1993), Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand are second only to the United States. These countries account for more than 10% of the total volume of world trade. Data on exports and imports of some countries and their shares in world exports and imports are presented in tables 1 and 2. Of the Asian, newly industrialized countries, Hong Kong is one of the ten largest trading powers in the world, which in 1993 occupied the 7th place in the atom list. in exports and 8th in imports. Hong Kong is far ahead of all countries in the world in terms of the value of exports and imports per capita.

Among the countries with economies in transition, China's foreign trade is developing most dynamically. From 1979 to 1995, the average annual growth in export-import transactions was 16.5%, which significantly exceeded the growth rate of world trade. The value of China's foreign trade increased from 24 billion dollars in 1979 to 281 billion dollars in 1995, which allowed the country to enter the ten largest trading powers in the world.

Modern international trade is developing at a fairly high pace. Among the main trends in the development of international trade are the following:

1) There is a predominant development of trade in comparison with industries material production and the world economy as a whole. Thus, according to some estimates, over the period of the 1950s-1990s, the world's GDP increased by about 5 times, and commodity exports - by at least 11 times. Accordingly, if in 2000 the world GDP was estimated at $30 trillion, then the volume of international trade - exports plus imports - was $12 trillion.
2) In the structure of international trade, the share of manufacturing products is growing (up to 75%), of which more than 40% are engineering products. Only 14% is fuel and other raw materials, the share of agricultural products is about 9%, clothing and textiles - 3%.
3) Among the changes in the geographical direction of international trade flows, there is an increase in the role of developed countries and China. However, developing countries (mainly due to the promotion of new industrial countries with a pronounced export orientation from among them) managed to significantly increase their influence in this area. In 1950, they accounted for only 16% of world trade, and by 2001 - already 41.2%. Since the second half of the 20th century, the uneven dynamics of foreign trade has manifested itself. In the 1960s, Western Europe -- main center international trade. Its exports were almost 4 times higher than those of the United States. By the end of the 1980s, Japan began to emerge as a leader in terms of competitiveness. In the same period, it was joined by the "new industrial countries" of Asia - Singapore, Hong Kong Taiwan. However, by the mid-1990s, the United States was taking the world's leading position in terms of competitiveness. Export of goods and services in the world in 2007, according to the WTO, amounted to 16 trillion. USD. The share of the group of goods is 80%, and services - 20% of the total volume of trade in the world.
4) The most important direction in the development of foreign trade is intra-company trade within the framework of TNCs. According to some information, on intracompany international deliveries accounts for up to 70% of all world trade, 80-90% of sales of licenses and patents. Since TNCs are the most important link in the world economy, world trade is at the same time trade within TNCs.
5) Trade in services is expanding, and in several ways. Firstly, this is a cross-border supply, for example, distance learning. Another way of supplying services - consumption abroad - involves the movement of the consumer or the transfer of his property to the country where the service is provided, for example, the service of a guide on a tourist trip. The third way is a commercial presence, such as the operation of a foreign bank or restaurant in the country. And the fourth way is moving individuals who are service providers abroad, such as doctors or teachers. The most developed countries of the world are the leaders in trade in services.

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Introduction

I. Theoretical foundations of the study of international trade

1.1 Theories of international trade

1.2 The history of the formation of international trade

1.3 Main indicators of world trade

II. Modern tendencies development of international trade

2.1 Forms of international trade and their features at the present stage

2.2 The current situation and trends in the development of international trade

2.3 Features of the structure of world trade at the present stage

2.4 Main problems of international trade

Conclusion

List of sources used

Applications

ATconducting

International trade is the most developed and widespread form of international economic relations. It occupies the main place among the modern foreign policy interests and problems of the countries of the world. Therefore, the study of its essence, dynamics of development and modern structure is an important element for determining the foreign policy of the state of its development programs.

Based on this, we can formulate the following main goal of this course work, which is to determine the essence, study the dynamics and structure of international trade. This goal of the course work involves the following main tasks: the definition of the essence of world trade; study of the current state of world trade and trends in its development; determination of the features of the structure of world trade at the present stage; consideration of modern policy in relation to international trade.

Thus, in this course work, the object of study will be international trade itself, and the subject - the factors, dynamics of development and the structure of modern international trade.

The study of this topic has been and is being done almost constantly. This is necessary condition both the work of individual organizations related to foreign trade, and the activities of each state in the implementation of its foreign policy and the development of medium- and long-term development programs. Therefore, the monitoring of the state of international trade, as well as the processes of forecasting and planning, do not stop, which is reflected in the wide interest in this topic. On questions of international trade there are articles in all the literature on international economic relations without exception. We can distinguish such authors: A. Smith, D. Ricardo and others, who covered theoretical basis international trade most widely. The application of analysis as a method of studying changes in international trade at the present stage involves consideration of two aspects: first, the rate of its growth in general (exports and imports) and relative to the growth of production; secondly, shifts in the structure: commodity (the ratio of the main groups of goods and services) and geographical (shares of regions, groups of countries and individual countries). The subject of the work itself involves the study of not only the quantitative characteristics of changes in international trade, but also the qualitative side of these changes. As a result of the analysis, using the synthesis method, conclusions will be drawn about the dynamics and structure of international trade. In accordance with the grouping method, groups of the main indicators of international trade, its forms will be formed, as well as its structure will be characterized.

I.Theoretical foundations for the study of international trade

1.1 Theories of international trade

International trade is a form of communication between producers of different countries, arising on the basis of the international division of labor, and expresses their mutual economic dependence. The following definition is often given in the literature: International trade is the process of buying and selling between buyers, sellers and intermediaries in different countries.

International trade includes the export and import of goods, the ratio between which is called the balance of trade. The UN statistical handbooks provide data on the volume and dynamics of world trade as the sum of the value of exports of all countries of the world (see Table A1., Appendix A).

The term "foreign trade" refers to the trade of a country with other countries, consisting of paid import (import) and paid export (export) of goods.

International trade is the paid total trade turnover between all countries of the world. However, the concept of "international trade" is also used in a narrower sense: for example, the total trade turnover of industrialized countries, the total trade turnover of developing countries, the total trade turnover of the countries of a continent, region, for example, the countries of Eastern Europe, etc.

National production differences are determined by different endowment with production factors - labor, land, capital, as well as different internal needs for certain goods. The effect that foreign trade has on the dynamics of national income growth, consumption and investment activity is characterized for each country by quite definite quantitative dependencies and can be calculated and expressed in the form of a specially developed multiplier.

At different times, various theories of world trade appeared and were refuted, which in one way or another tried to explain the origin of this phenomenon, to determine its goals, laws, advantages and disadvantages. The following are the most common theories of international trade.

Mercantilist theory. Within the framework of this theory, it was believed that the main goal of each state is wealth, and the world has limited wealth, and an increase in the wealth of one country is possible only at the expense of reducing the wealth of another country. At the same time, the role of the state in international economic policy was reduced to maintaining a positive trade balance and regulating foreign trade to stimulate exports and reduce imports.

The mercantilists were the first to emphasize the importance of international trade and were the first to describe the balance of payments. The main drawback of this theory is that here the development of countries is seen as possible only through the redistribution of wealth, and not through its growth.

A. Smith's theory of absolute advantages. It was believed that the well-being of nations depended not only on the amount of gold, but also on the ability to produce goods and services. Consequently, the task of the state is to develop production through the division of labor and cooperation. The formulation of the theory itself sounds like this: countries export those goods that they produce at lower costs, i.e. in the production of which they have absolute advantages, and I import those goods that are produced by other countries at lower costs, i.e. in the production of which the trading partners have an advantage.

This theory shows the advantages of the division of labor, but at the same time does not explain trade in the absence of absolute advantages.

D. Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage is formulated as follows: if countries specialize in the production of those goods that they can produce at relatively lower costs compared to other countries, then trade will be mutually beneficial regardless of whether production in one of them is absolutely more effective than the other or not.

This theory was the first to prove the existence of gains from trade and describe aggregate demand and aggregate supply. Although at the same time it does not take into account transport costs and the impact of foreign trade on the distribution of income within the country, acting only in conditions of full employment.

Heckscher-Ohlin's theory of ratio of factors of production. Operates with the concepts of factor intensity (the ratio of the cost of production factors to create a product) and factor saturation (provision with production factors). According to this theory, each country exports those factor-intensive goods for the production of which it has relatively excess factors of production, and imports those for the production of which it experiences a relative shortage of factors of production. This theory derives the reason for the influence of different factors of production on international trade. International trade leads to equalization of prices for factors of production in trading countries.

The limitation of the theory is that only two countries with identical technologies are considered and internal factors are not taken into account.

Leontief's paradox. The well-known economist Wassily Leontiev, studying the structure of US exports and imports in 1956, found that, contrary to the Heckscher-Ohlin theory, exports were dominated by relatively more labor-intensive goods, while imports were dominated by capital-intensive ones. This result became known as Leontief's paradox.

Thus, with the development of the concept of "international trade", its content became more complicated, although by now it has not been possible to create such a theory that would correspond to practice as much as possible.

1.2 The history of the formation of international trade

Originating in ancient times, world trade reaches a significant scale and acquires the character of stable international commodity-money relations at the turn of the 18th and 19th centuries. A powerful impetus to this process was the creation in a number of more industrialized countries (England, Holland, etc.) of large-scale machine production, focused on large-scale and regular imports of raw materials from the economically less developed countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, and exports of manufactured goods to these countries. primarily for consumer use.

In the XX century. World trade has gone through a series of deep crises. The first of these was associated with the World War of 1914-1918, it led to a long and deep disruption of world trade, which lasted until the end of World War II, which shook the entire structure of international economic relations to its foundations. In the post-war period, world trade faced new difficulties associated with the collapse of the colonial system. However, all these crises were overcome. Generally feature the post-war period was a noticeable acceleration in the pace of development of world trade, reaching the highest level in the entire previous history of human society. Moreover, the growth rate of world trade exceeded the growth rate of world GDP.

Since the second half of the 20th century, world trade has been developing at a rapid pace. In the period 1950-1994. world trade turnover increased 14 times. According to Western experts, the period between 1950 and 1970 can be described as a "golden age" in the development of international trade. Thus, the average annual growth rate of world exports was in the 50s. 6.0%, in the 60s. -8.2%. In the period from 1970 to 1991, the average annual growth rate was 9.0%, in 1991-1995. this figure was 6.2%. Accordingly, the volume of world trade also increased. Recently, this figure has been growing at an average of 1.9% per year.

In the post-war period, an annual growth of 7% in world exports was achieved. However, already in the 70s it dropped to 5%, decreasing even more in the 80s. In the late 80s, world exports showed a noticeable recovery - up to 8.5% in 1988. After a clear decline in the early 1990s, since the mid-1990s, it has again demonstrated high steady rates, even despite significant annual fluctuations caused first by the September 11 attacks in the United States, and then by the war in Iraq and the resulting surge in world prices for energy resources.

Since the second half of the 20th century, the uneven dynamics of foreign trade has become noticeable. This affected the balance of power between countries in the world market. The dominance of the United States was shaken. In turn, Germany's exports approached the US, and in some years even exceeded it. In addition to Germany, exports of other Western European countries also grew at a noticeable pace. In the 1980s, Japan made a significant breakthrough in international trade. By the end of the 1980s, Japan began to emerge as a leader in terms of competitiveness factors. In the same period, it was joined by the "new industrial countries" of Asia - Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan. However, by the mid-1990s, the United States was once again taking a leading position in the world in terms of competitiveness. They are closely followed by Singapore, Hong Kong, as well as Japan, which previously ranked first for six years (see Table A1, Appendix A).

So far, developing countries have mainly remained suppliers of raw materials, foodstuffs and relatively simple products. finished products to the world market. However, the growth rate of trade in raw materials lags markedly behind the overall growth rate of world trade. This lag is due to the development of substitutes for raw materials, their more economical use, and the deepening of their processing. Industrialized countries have almost completely captured the market science-intensive products. At the same time, some developing countries, primarily the "newly industrialized countries", have managed to achieve significant changes in the restructuring of their exports, increasing the share of finished products, industrial products, incl. machines and equipment. Thus, the share of industrial exports of developing countries in the total world volume in the early 90s was 16.3%, but now this figure is already approaching 25%.

1.3 Main indicators of world trade

The foreign trade of all countries together forms international trade, which is based on the international division of labor. In theory, world trade is characterized by the following main indicators:

Foreign trade turnover of countries, which is the sum of exports and imports;

Import - import from abroad into the country of goods and services. The import of material assets for their sale on the domestic market is a visible import. Imports of component parts, semi-finished products, etc. constitute indirect imports. The costs in foreign currency for transshipment of goods, passengers, travel insurance, technology and other services, as well as transfers of companies and individuals abroad are included in the so-called. invisible imports.

Export - the export from the country of goods and services sold to a foreign buyer for sale on a foreign market, or for processing in another country. It also includes the transportation of goods in transit through a third country, the export of goods brought from other countries for sale in a third country, i.e. re-export.

In addition, international trade is characterized by the following indicators:

Growth rates in general;

Growth rates relative to production growth;

Growth rates of world trade relative to previous years.

The first of these indicators is determined by the ratio of the indicator of the volume of international trade of the year under review to the indicator of the base year. It can be used to characterize the percentage of changes in the volume of international trade for certain period time.

Attributing the rate of growth in international trade to the rate of growth in output is the starting point for identifying several characteristics that are important for describing the dynamics of international trade. Firstly, this indicator characterizes the productivity of production in the country, that is, the amount of goods and services that it can provide to the world market for a certain period of time. Secondly, it can be used to assess the overall level of development of the productive forces of states from the standpoint of international trade.

The last of these indicators is the assignment of the volume of international trade in the current year to the value of the base year, and the base year is always taken as the previous year.

II.Modern trends in the development of international trade

2.1 Forms of international trade and their features at the present stage

Wholesale. The main organizational form in the wholesale trade of countries with developed market economies is independent firms engaged in their own trade. But with penetration into the wholesale trade industrial firms they created their own vending machine. Such are the wholesale branches of industrial firms in the USA: wholesale offices employed information service various customers, and wholesale bases. Large German firms have their own supply departments, special bureaus or sales departments, wholesale warehouses. Industrial companies create subsidiaries to sell their products to firms and may have their own wholesale network.

An important parameter in the wholesale trade is the ratio of universal and specialized wholesalers. The trend towards specialization can be considered universal: in specialized firms, labor productivity is much higher than in universal ones. Specialization goes to product and functional (i.e. limitation of functions performed by wholesale company) sign.

Commodity exchanges occupy a special place in wholesale trade. They look like trading houses where they trade various goods, both wholesale and retail. Basically, commodity exchanges have their own specialization. Public exchange trading is based on the principles of a double auction, when increasing bids from buyers meet decreasing bids from sellers. When the prices of the offers of the buyer and the seller coincide, a deal is concluded. Each concluded contract is publicly registered and communicated to the public through communication channels.

Price change is determined by the number of sellers willing to sell a product at a given price level and buyers willing to purchase a given product at that price level. A feature of modern exchange trading with high liquidity is that the difference between the prices of offers for sale and purchase is 0.1% of the price level and lower, while on stock exchanges this figure reaches 0.5% of the price of shares and bonds, and on the markets real estate - 10% or more.

There are almost no real goods exchanges left in developed countries. But in certain periods, in the absence of other forms of market organization, exchanges of real goods can play a significant role. The institution of the exchange has not lost its significance for international trade, in connection with the transformation from the exchange of a real commodity into a market for the rights to goods, or into the so-called futures exchange.

Stock exchanges. Trade securities conducted on international money markets, that is, on the stock exchanges of such large financial centers as New York, London, Paris, Frankfurt am Main, Tokyo, Zurich. Securities are traded during business hours on the stock exchange, or the so-called stock time. Only brokers (brokers) can act as sellers and buyers on the exchanges, who fulfill the orders of their clients, and for this they receive certain percentage from turnover. For trading in securities - stocks and bonds - there are so-called brokerage firms, or brokerage houses.

At present, trading in securities both on the domestic and foreign markets is of great importance for the development of world trade as a whole. The volume of turnover within this form of international trade is steadily increasing, although it is strongly influenced by foreign policy factors.

Trade fairs. Fairs and exhibitions are one of the best ways to find contact between producer and consumer. At thematic fairs, manufacturers exhibit their goods on the exhibition space, and the consumer has the opportunity to choose, buy or order the goods he needs right on the spot. The fair is an extensive exhibition where stands with goods and services are distributed according to the subject, industry, purpose, etc.

In France, numerous industry exhibitions are organized by organizing societies, which in most cases do not have their own fair territories belonging to the chamber of commerce and industry. In the fair business of Italy, the largest fair company is the Milan Fair, which has no competitors in terms of its annual turnover, which is 200-250 million euros. It mainly rents exhibition pavilions, but also acts as an organizer. At UK fairs, two large companies operating outside the country, Reed and Blenheim, stand out, the annual turnover of which ranges from 350 to 400 million euros. However, they also receive a significant part of their turnover outside the UK. According to official figures, about 30 percent of Italy's foreign trade is carried out through fairs, including 18 percent through Milan. It has 20 representative offices abroad. The share of foreign exhibitors and visitors averages 18 percent. Fairs in Germany as a whole occupy leading place in Europe. Recently, the annual turnover, for example, of the Berlin Fair has exceeded 200 million euros and has a steady upward trend.

The role of fairs in the future will not decrease, but, on the contrary, will increase. With the development of the international division of labor, which will be further deepened by the free exchange of goods in Europe. With some exceptions, visitors and participants of the European fairs were not interfered with or restricted in any way.

2.2 The current situation and trends in the development of international trade

As foreign trade statistics show, over the past decade and a half, there has been a stable and constant growth in world foreign trade turnover, exceeding the growth rate of GDP, which convincingly indicates that all countries are increasingly drawn into the system of the international division of labor. World exports more than doubled, up from $2 trillion. dollars In 1980 to 5.5 trillion. dollars in 2010. This means an increase in exports by more than 70% in the 80s and more than 65% in 2009. import indicators are close to these values (see Table 2.1).

Table 2.1 Overall results of world trade billions of dollars

As can be seen from this table, the values of exports and imports, and, consequently, the indicators of trade turnover of the countries of the world from 2009 to 2012 almost doubled. But in view of the slowdown in the growth of world trade, observed since 2010, the author of this textbook makes a forecast for a decrease in this indicator in 2011.

Table 2.2 Forecast of changes in the volume of trade, % 2011/2012

Country or region	Change rate, %


European Union



Latin America

CEE and CIS

North America (USA and Canada)
European Union



Latin America

CEE and CIS

This table, in support of the foregoing about the decrease in the volume of trade, shows the forecasts of such a decrease in the indicator under consideration for various regions and countries of the world. At the same time, negative values show the percentage of the decrease in turnover, positive values show the percentage of increase. Characteristically, for most of these countries and regions, changes, in whatever direction they take, occur synchronously.

According to WTO exporters, world trade increased by 15% in 2011, which is one of the highest rates in recent years. And this is despite the fact that in early 2009, the growth of world trade began to decline slightly.

As for the growth rates of world trade, it can be stated that the stable outstripping growth rates of world trade are indicators of new qualitative features of international trade associated with an increase in the capacity of world markets. Also characteristic are the outpacing, rather high rates of expansion of trade in finished industrial products, and in them - machinery and equipment, even higher growth rates of trade in products of communications, electrical and electronic technology, computers, etc. The volume of trade in components, assemblies and assemblies supplied in the order of industrial cooperation within the framework of TNCs is expanding even faster. And another dynamic phenomenon is the accelerated growth of international trade in services.

All this could not but affect the radical shifts in both the commodity and the geographical structure of world exchange. At the same time, the share of the main groups of developed, developing and former socialist countries has remained practically unchanged over the past 15-20 years. It was 70-76%, 20-24% and 6-8%, respectively. Now this ratio is beginning to change due to the entry of several post-socialist countries into the European Union, which was the reason for their economic growth, and the changes caused by this.

In the commodity exchange of world foreign trade, there is an obvious upward trend in the share of finished goods, which account for more than 70% of world trade. The remaining share is divided approximately equally between agricultural exports and extractive industries. For comparison, we can say that in the middle of the last century, raw materials accounted for about two thirds, and only one third - for finished products.

Services now account for almost a quarter of international trade. That is why various studies now pay special attention to the growth of world trade in services. Changes in world exports of services in recent years are shown in Table 2.3.

Table 2.3 World export of services, billion dollars

Type of service					2012(forecast)
Transport, incl.
Passenger

Other modes of transport
Travels
Government Services
Other types of services

In this way, overall volume services accounts for about 25% of total world exports. When it comes to the distribution of the cost of services according to certain types, the most important in world trade in services are tourism and transport. In addition, another trend is observed: exports are growing labor resources to developed countries from developing and, in particular, post-socialist ones.

2.3 Features of the structure of world trade at the present stage

Significant shifts have taken place in the structure of world trade: the share of finished goods has increased and the share of food and raw materials, except for fuel, has decreased. If in the 1950s the share of raw materials and fuels was approximately equal to the share of finished goods, by the beginning of the new century the share of raw materials, food and fuel had fallen to 30%, of which 25% were fuel and 5% were raw materials. At the same time, the share of finished products increased from 50% to 70%. Quantitative characteristics of the structure of world trade are presented in Table 2.4.

Table 2.4 Structure of world merchandise trade

Products	Total volume, billion USD Share, %


Food

Extractive industry:
Minerals

Non-ferrous metals
Industrial:
iron and steel
Products chemical industry
Other types of lower processing products:
Mechanical engineering and transport equipment
Automotive products
Office and telecommunications
Other types of transport equipment
Textile industry products

Other types of consumer goods

The decrease in the share of raw materials in international trade is due to three main reasons: the expansion of the production of synthetic materials based on the development of the chemical industry, the greater use of domestic raw materials and the transition to resource-saving technologies. At the same time, trade in mineral fuels - oil, natural gas - has sharply increased as a result of the development of the chemical industry and changes in the structure of the fuel and energy balance.

Whereas earlier commodities and end products dominated international trade, in modern conditions the exchange of semi-finished products, intermediate forms of products, and individual parts of the final product acquires importance. The emergence of a powerful production apparatus of TNCs abroad, the establishment of stable cooperative ties between individual international links in technological chains have led to the fact that already about 1/3 of all imports and up to 3/5 of trade in machinery and equipment fall on intermediate products.

The reason for this phenomenon can be called the growth of specialization in the conditions of the scientific and technological revolution. The monopolies seek to reduce the unit costs of production by increasing the minimum and optimal sizes of enterprises, achieving savings on large-scale serial production with extensive use of exports, since the volume of the domestic market does not allow a significant increase in production. According to research, doubling serial production, costs per unit of production are reduced by 8-10%.

The share of exports of industrialized countries is growing high-tech products, which in the USA, Switzerland and Japan is over 20%, Germany and France - about 15%. The trade in microelectronic products is growing especially fast. In this position, China has recently begun to lead, where the annual increase in exports of such products in 2012 amounted to 29.7%. An important role in trade is acquired by the export and import of services, the so-called. "invisible exports". If in 2010 the volume of world exports of services amounted to 80 billion dollars, then in 2011-2012. - about 1.5 trillion. dollars, i.e. more than 20% of the cost of goods sold. Services account for over 40% of US exports and 46% of UK exports.

With a decrease in the export of some traditional services (for example, transport), the export of services related to the application of scientific and technological achievements, with the introduction of computer technology, consulting, trade intermediary and technical services, know-how, services in the field of communication, services of banks, insurance agencies, etc.

An analysis of the directions of trade reveals that the mutual trade of industrialized countries, which account for almost 60% of world exports, is growing at a faster pace. In turn, developing countries export about 70% of their export goods to industrial countries (of which China - 34%). As for the participants in trade, the trend of ousting medium and small exporters and importers from the world market is increasing. Foreign trade relations are concentrated within the framework of monopoly associations. Already in the 1980s, American exports related to the activities of TNCs accounted for 84% of all US exports and 60% of imports. A similar pattern is observed in other countries.

A characteristic feature of recent years is the barterization of foreign economic transactions - the growth of counter trade. Such "counter" transactions account for 20% to 30% of all world trade.

Along with legitimate trade practices are gaining ground, especially in a number of countries South-East Asia, criminal forms of trade, smuggling, trade in goods with falsified trademarks (clothing, footwear, household electrical appliances). The volume of such trade reaches 60 billion dollars a year.

In general, it can be noted that the very nature of the world market has changed over the past time. It no longer receives surpluses of domestic production, but pre-agreed deliveries to a specific buyer.

2.4 Main problems of international trade

international trade turnover export

International trade is a process of buying and selling between buyers, sellers and intermediaries in different countries. It is associated with many practical and financial difficulties for the firms involved in it. Along with the usual problems of trade and commerce that arise in any type of business, there are additional problems in international trade:

Time and distance - credit risk and contract execution time;

Changes in foreign exchange rates - currency risk;

Differences in laws and regulations;

Government regulations - exchange controls, as well as sovereign risk and country risk.

The main effect of exchange rate fluctuations on international trade is the risk for the exporter or importer that the value of the foreign currency they use in their trade will differ from what they hoped and expected.

Exposure to foreign currencies and currency risk can bring additional profits, not just losses. Businesses are looking for ways to minimize or eliminate exposure to foreign exchange in order to plan business operations and forecast profits more reliably. Importers seek to minimize exposure to foreign exchange for the same reasons. But, as with an exporter, importers prefer to know exactly how much they will have to pay in their currency. There are various ways to eliminate exposure to foreign currency, carried out with the help of banks.

In international trade, the exporter must invoice the buyer in a foreign currency (for example, in the currency of the buyer's country), or the Buyer must pay for the goods in a foreign currency (for example, in the currency of the exporter's country). It is also possible for the payment currency to be the currency of a third country: for example, a firm in Ukraine may sell goods to a buyer in Australia and ask for payment in US dollars. Therefore, one of the problems of the importer is the need to obtain foreign currency to make a payment, and the exporter may have the problem of exchanging the received foreign currency for the currency of his country.

The cost of imported goods to the buyer or the cost of exported goods to the seller may be increased or decreased due to changes in exchange rates. Therefore, a firm that makes payments or earns income in foreign currencies has potential "currency risk" due to adverse changes in exchange rates.

The time factor is that it can take a very long time between submitting an application to a foreign supplier and receiving the goods. When a product is delivered over a long distance, the bulk of the delay between the application and delivery is usually due to the length of the transportation period. Delays may also be caused by the need to prepare appropriate documentation for shipment. Time and distance create credit risk for exporters. The exporter usually has to provide credit for payment over a longer period of time than he would need if he were selling the goods domestically. If there are a large number of foreign debtors, it becomes necessary to obtain additional working capital to finance them.

Lack of knowledge and understanding of the rules, customs and laws of the country of the importer or exporter leads to uncertainty or distrust between buyer and seller, which can only be overcome after a long and successful business relationship. One way to overcome the difficulties associated with differences in customs and characters is to standardize the procedures for international trade.

Sovereign risk occurs when the sovereign government of a country:

Receives a loan from a foreign lender;

Becomes a debtor of a foreign supplier;

Issues a loan guarantee on behalf of a third party in their home country, but then either the government or the third party refuses to repay the loan and claims immunity from prosecution. The creditor or exporter will be powerless to collect the debt, since he will be prohibited from taking his claim through the courts.

Country risk arises when the buyer does everything in his power to pay off his debt to the exporter, but when he needs to receive this foreign currency, the authorities of his country either refuse to provide him with this currency or are unable to do so.

Government regulations regarding imports and exports can be a major barrier to international trade. There are the following rules and restrictions:

Regulations on currency regulation;

Export licensing;

Import licensing;

Trade embargo;

Import quotas;

Government regulations regarding legal standards for safety, and quality or specifications for all products sold domestically in that country, legal standards for health and hygiene, especially for food products; patents and trademarks; packaging of goods and the amount of information given on the packages;

The documentation required for customs clearance of imported goods can be very voluminous. Delays in customs clearing can be a significant factor in the overall problem of delays in international trade;

Import duties or other taxes to pay for imported goods.

Foreign exchange regulations (i.e., a system for controlling the inflow and outflow of foreign currency into and out of a country) usually refer to extraordinary measures taken by a country's government to protect its currency, although the details of these regulations are subject to change.

Thus, on this moment world trade still encounters many obstacles in its path. Although at the same time, in view of the general trend towards world integration, all kinds of trade and economic associations of states are being created to facilitate the implementation of international trade.

Wconclusion

The traditional and most developed form of international economic relations is foreign trade. Trade accounts for about 80 per cent of the current volume of international economic relations. Not a single country in the world has yet managed to create an economy without participating in international trade. In modern conditions, the country's active participation in world trade is associated with significant advantages: it allows more efficient use of the resources available in the country, join the world's achievements in science and technology, carry out structural restructuring of its economy in a shorter time, and also more fully and diversely meet the needs of population.

International trade is a consequence of the international division of labor and international specialization. This secures serious development prospects for it. In addition, world trade contributes to the deepening of the internationalization of production, international economic integration and globalization. Based on this, the study of its current position and consideration of the prospects for its development is necessary to build a foreign economic strategy both at the macro and micro levels. This means that not only the states should have their own program of behavior in the international market of goods and services, but also the enterprises and organizations operating in this market should have strategic concepts functioning and behavior in changing conditions.

Foreign trade, especially in countries with open economies, where the share of products sold on world markets is high, has a huge impact on the overall state of the economy. Deterioration of the conditions for the export of goods (price reduction, decrease in demand for them) or import (its rise in price) can lead to a drop in national production, a deterioration in the state of the balance of payments, and a depreciation of the national currency. The decline in the volume of foreign trade is especially hard on the situation of countries with a one-sided structure of exports and creates instability in their economies.

The dynamics of the development of international trade is characterized by a rapid growth in the volume of trade in the last decade. This is due to both the growth of the economic and scientific and technical potential of most states. At the same time, it is important to note the trend according to which the share of trade in finished products is growing in relation to the share of trade in raw materials and materials. In particular, the volume of trade in semi-finished products is also increasing. In the growing variety of forms of international trade, intracorporate trade of TNCs begins to occupy a significant position. This is due, first of all, to the strengthening of the position at the international level of the TNCs themselves, as well as the natural favorable position of related, but located in different countries, divisions.

Structural shifts taking place in the economies of countries under the influence of scientific and technological revolution, specialization and cooperation of industrial production contribute to the intensification of international trade. The volume of international trade, driving all international commodity flows, is growing faster than production. They are also growing relative to the previous ones, and at a faster pace. In addition, the structure of trade is also changing. Now trade in finished products prevails over trade in raw materials and materials. The geographical structure of international trade is also changing: the main trade turnover of developing countries is directed to developed ones, they, in turn, trade mostly among themselves, while reorienting more and more to the service market, developing the sphere of international tourism. In addition, developing and post-socialist countries are expanding their labor exports.

A significant role in the regulation of foreign trade is played by the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), transformed on January 1, 2009 into the World Trade Organization, as well as various commodity agreements and intergovernmental trade agreements concluded on a bilateral basis.

Thus, summing up, we can say that in dynamics there is a rapid growth in the volume of international trade, and the share of finished products in it is steadily growing. The structure of international trade, both geographical and commodity, is constantly changing, representing at the moment a system of two elements: developed countries that trade mainly among themselves, and developing countries that supply their products to developed countries.

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PAnnex A

Table A.1 Quantitative characteristics of foreign trade of some countries of the world (including Ukraine) in 2010

	Volume of foreign trade, mln. $	Place in terms of foreign trade volume	Export, million $	Import, million $

Germany


Great Britain


Netherlands



The Republic of Korea
Singapore




Malaysia

PAppendix B

Table B.1 GATT negotiations

Location of opening and holding
Geneva, Switzerland)		Decrease in customs tariffs
Annecy (France)
Torquay (England)

	1960-1961 (Dillon Round)
	1964-1967 (Kennedy Round)	Tariff reduction, development of an anti-dumping code
Tokyo (Japan), Geneva	1973-1979 (Tokyo Round)	Tariff reduction, development of a code expanding and strengthening GATT compensation in the field of non-tariff barriers
Punta del Este (Uruguay)	1986-1994 (Uruguay Round)	Reduction of customs barriers, improvement of the GATT mechanism, agreement on the creation of the WTO. Development of an agreement on trade in services (GATS)

Hosted on Allbest.ru

Exporters	Index		Importers	Index
Exporters		billion dollars	Importers		billion dollars


3. Germany			3. Germany
			23. Russia

Index, %
agricultural products
Raw materials and fuel
Products, manufacturing industry

Products/resources
Food and drink
Agricultural raw material
Minerals and non-ferrous metals, other than crude oil


Indicator, trillion dollars

The main trends in the development of modern international trade. Modern trends in the development of international trade in goods and services. Commodity structure of exports

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