What are the time horizons of the operational plan. See pages where the term planning horizon is mentioned. Strategic and operational planning. The planning process in an economic organization

The oil crisis led to an increase in volatility, and many companies stopped developing short-term plans. This can be seen from the corresponding indicator in Table. 9.2 for 1976. Companies that have retained long-term planning have moved to planning to reduce costs. Much attention was drawn to such a rationalization tool as a matrix model growth - market share. The planning horizon has been shortened.

Planning horizon and double

The planning horizon depends on three factors of the average time from the appearance of an idea to its implementation, the duration of the impact of decisions on the organization, i.e., on the period of connection with these decisions, the degree of predictability of the future. The planning horizon in Japanese corporations is five or three years (see Table 9.2). According to mail surveys and interviews, five-year plans are used in most American and English companies, while three-year plans are more common in Japan. This is due to the fact that Japanese companies operate in an environment of greater uncertainty. Does this mean that Japanese companies are medium-term oriented, while American and British companies are long-term? No, those Japanese companies that have long-term plans are oriented to the long term. In the US and UK, planning horizons are longer because their external environment is more stable, less competitive.

For the correct rationing of the consumption of material and energy resources, a reasonable classification of norms is of great importance. In the gas industry, taking into account its specifics and modern requirements for planning the industry, the consumption rates of material and energy resources are classified according to the following main features of the degree of aggregation, planning horizons, types of resources, planning and management levels, the degree of consolidation (aggregation) of the rationing object, the degree of consolidation (aggregation) nomenclature of material and energy resources, directions of consumption (appointment) of material and energy resources, types production activities(Fig. 2).

According to planning horizons, consumption and reserve rates are divided into promising ones used for five-year and long-term planning of the development of the industry, and current (annual) used for calculating consumption.

For example, if AUG = 0, then logically this corresponds to the statement that no array of norms is needed for any of the planning and management horizons, i.e., no array of norms is needed at all.

This is due to the fact that the families of sets of objects that form the system are in a certain relationship (correspondence). For example, in the described system of norms and regulations, many structural units (enterprises and organizations) depend on the level of planning and management. This dependence is determined by the structural scheme of organization and management in the industry. A set of rationing objects (products, works, etc.) is interconnected with the planning horizon, the level of planning and management, sub-sectors, enterprises and organizations. The range of standardized materials depends on the planning horizon, level of planning and management, sub-sector, enterprise or organization, products or work performed.

FOR DIFFERENT PLANNING HORIZONS AND LEVELS

In accordance with the above features of the industry, as well as the methodological foundations of creation and the basic principles of construction, the organizational and functional diagram of the integrated ASN of the gas industry (Fig. 26) has three levels and provides the formation of regulatory information on planning horizons, structural management links and sub-sectors. It should be noted that at each hierarchical level, in each structural link of management, in each sub-sector, the structure of the system (i.e., the composition of subsystems, blocks, sub-blocks) is the same.

With the expansion of the planning horizon and the strengthening of links between different types of plans in the ESP, the role of forecasting methods increases significantly. Scientifically based forecasts can significantly reduce the impact of uncertainty, which is especially large in long-term planning, on the quality of planning decisions and enrich the initial planning and economic information necessary to justify goals and objectives planning period, directions and means of their solution. Social, scientific, technical, foreign policy forecasting is an integral element of the process of developing long-term plans, especially at its initial stages. It should also be borne in mind that a number of forecasts (demographic, mineral reserves, consumer demand) eventually become a direct part of the state plan.

Note that the problem posed here does not always have a solution. One can choose such a large value of kT that such a capital-labor ratio will be unattainable for the system described by the model (4.10) - (4.12) for the time period [O, T]. This shows the importance of a preliminary analysis of the model (4.10) - (4.12) using the method based on the construction of reachability sets , which we have already discussed in the first chapter. Having considered the set of reachability for the system (4.10) - (4.12) for the period [O, T], i.e., the set of all values k (T) attainable for the period [O, T], we can choose a reasonable value kr, after which the value formulated here the optimization problem will have a solution. It turns out that for sufficiently large values of the planning horizon T

The problem posed here does not always have a solution. It is possible to choose such a large value of kTj that such a capital-labor ratio will be unattainable for the system described by the model (3.10) - (3.12) for the time period [O, T]. This shows the importance of a preliminary analysis of the model (3.10) - (3.12). Consider the reachability set for the system (3.10) - (3.12) over the period [0, T], i.e., the set of all attainable values k(T) and c(T) over the period [O, T]. Analyzing this set as described in Chapter 7. 2, the most appropriate achievable combination of k(T) and c(T) can be chosen. If we take the chosen value k(T) as kT, then the optimization problem formulated here will have a solution. It turns out that for sufficiently large values of the planning horizon T, the optimal control s(t) consists in the following: first, it is necessary to choose such a value of s(t) in order to reach the point /c determined from relation (3.14) as quickly as possible, then, for almost the entire period of time, the value s(t) should be equal to i at the end of the period, it is necessary to transfer the system from point k to kT in the minimum time. Thus, we again came to balanced growth in model (3.1) - (3.6) with maximum consumption per worker, and the very fact

The planning horizon is Glet.

Each investment (financing) project is infinitely divisible and available for implementation starting from any year of the planning horizon.

T is the planning horizon, x, is a variable equal to 0 or 1, Xj=0 corresponds to the rejection of the project, and Xj=l corresponds to the acceptance of the project, d is the number of resources.

The horizontal axis in fig. 29 is the planning horizon. Planning is divided into short-, medium- and long-term. Moreover, thanks to the window that opens on the front face of the planning cube, it is clear that strategic planning can be short-term and that it is also necessary to have a long-term operational schedule. First of all, it should be emphasized that planning becomes strategic not because the long-term period is considered. Strategic planning is often referred to as long-term planning. For example, in a car company, the formation of a policy for choosing a model that meets certain customer requirements will be referred to as strategic planning. The cost curve for the 8-year life cycle of the model shows the long-term planning perspective and at the same time the operational level in sales planning. With regard to the schedule, the same strategic question arises about the potential ability to translate what was planned into reality.

The enterprise is me. Orientation to the private - a departure from operational and strategic controlling. Straightforward Thinking - Profit Maximization. A combination of factors dominates. The numbers change, but the planning horizon is constant.

The organizational structure of the financial service becomes more complicated and the number of functional units increases as the size of the company increases, the horizon of activity planning expands and the degree of participation of the enterprise in the capital of other companies. In large companies, the financial service can be separated into a separate financial directorate, which includes a number of structural units built according to the functional principle.

ORIENTATION OF GOALS IN TIME. The specific forecast horizon is another characteristic of effective goals. It should specify not only exactly what the organization wants to accomplish, but also, in general, when the result is to be achieved. Goals are usually set for long or short time periods. The long-term goal, according to Steiner, has a planning horizon of approximately five years, sometimes longer for technologically advanced firms. The short-term goal in most cases represents one of the plans of the organization, which should be completed within a year. Medium-term goals have a planning horizon of one to five years.

On the contrary, managerial decisions in Japan are guided by a roughly five-year planning horizon. Presidents of Japanese firms do not belong to the category professional managers. The leadership of the organization is entrusted to them for a predetermined period as representatives of all categories of employees1. If any department gets into debt for a year or two, this does not bode well for responsible managers. As long as the unit has a good outlook, a short-term crisis is tolerated.

planning horizon

Depending on which horizon (period) of time the plans drawn up by the organization cover, planning is divided into three types:

long-term planning;

medium term planning;

short term planning.

The classification of planning according to the duration of the planning horizon should not be confused with the previous classification - according to the temporal orientation of ideas. The division of types according to the temporal orientation of ideas implies the existence of fundamentally different planning philosophies depending on the attitude to the past, present and future. The division of planning into long-term, medium-term and short-term means the difference in the length of time required to fulfill the planned indicators, and is of a technical nature.

Long term planning usually covers long periods of time - from 10 to 25 years. At one time, long-term planning was identified with strategic, but now these two concepts exist separately. Strategic planning in its content is much more complicated than long-term planning. It is not a way of simply lengthening the planning period, that is, strategic planning is not just a function of time. Strategic planning will be discussed in more detail in the following sections.

Medium term planning concretizes the milestones defined by the long-term plan. It may be for a shorter period. Until recently, the medium-term planning horizon was five years. However, the unforeseen nature and rate of change external environment forced many firms to reduce the length of their plans from five to three years, respectively, five-year plans moved into the category of long-term ones.

short term planning- this is the development of plans for one or two years (usually short-term plans are annual plans). Short-term plans include specific ways in which the organization's resources will be used to achieve the goals defined in the longer-term plans. The content of short-term plans is detailed by quarters and months.

All three types of planning should be linked to each other and not contradict each other.

In addition to these three methods of classification, there is a division of planning types depending on the importance of one or another type in the process of planning activities. Hence, planning is divided into two main types: strategic and operational.

Strategic and operational planning.

The planning process in economic organization

The entire planning process in an economic organization can be divided into two main stages: the development of a firm's strategy (strategic planning) and the determination of tactics for implementing the developed strategy (operational, or, what is the same, tactical planning).

Strategic planning

The concept of "strategy" is of Greek origin. Initially, it had a military meaning and meant "the art of the general" to find right ways to achieve victory.

The strategy of an economic organization is a set of its main goals and the main ways to achieve these goals. In other words, to develop a strategy for the firm means to determine the general directions of its activities.

Strategy cannot be simply defining desired goals and convenient ways their transformations. Wishful thinking is not the same as developing a strategy. The strategy should not come from pleasant dreams, but from the real possibilities for the development of the company. Therefore, the strategy is, first of all, the organization's response to the objective external and internal circumstances of its activities.

Typically, strategic planning is designed for a long period, although in many organizations the strategy is based on medium-term planning (the second method is more acceptable for Russian organizations operating in conditions of extremely high uncertainty). At the same time, strategic and long-term planning, as already noted, are ambiguous processes. Strategy is not a function of time, but first of all direction function. It is not just focused on a given period of time, but includes a set of global ideas for the development of the company.

Responsibility for developing a strategy lies primarily with the management of an economic organization, since strategic planning requires high responsibility, large-scale coverage of actions by the manager. The planning team provides strategic planning with an analytical approach to making decisions about the future of the firm.

tactical planning

The term "tactics" is also originally a military term of Greek origin, meaning the maneuvering of forces suitable for the implementation of given goals. Tactical planning deals with decisions about how an organization's resources should be allocated to achieve strategic goals. Tactical planning usually covers the short and medium term, that is, it is the subject of concern for middle and lower management.

 A concrete example of one of the directions of the strategy could be a farmer's decision to enter the production of products under his own brand (in particular, the production of chickens in special packaging). Then tactical planning may include the following tasks:

the creation of new production facilities (say, by acquiring a chicken processing plant or acquiring a neighboring farm that has one);

special training in marketing and personnel training;

creating a more mobile distribution system, establishing contacts with new outlets.

What are the main differences between strategic and tactical planning?

The main issue of strategic planning is what the organization wants to achieve. Tactical planning focuses on how the organization must reach this state. That is, the difference between strategic and tactical planning is the difference between ends and means.

Other differences:

decision-making at the tactical planning level tends to be less subjective because tactical planners have more good, specific information available. In tactical planning, computer-based quantitative methods of analysis are applicable;

the implementation of tactical decisions is better monitored, less risky, since such decisions are mainly related to internal problems;

tactical decisions are easier to evaluate, as they can be expressed in more specific numerical results (for example, it is more difficult for a farmer to evaluate the specific benefits of introducing products under his own brand than to calculate the increase in the production of chickens in special packaging when acquiring new production facilities);

tactical planning is also characterized by an attraction to the levels of individual divisions - product, regional, functional.

operational planning means almost the same thing as tactical planning. The term "operational" is more vivid than the term "tactical", it emphasizes that this is the planning of individual operations in the general economic flow in the short and medium periods, for example, production planning, marketing planning, etc. Operational planning is also understood as the organization's budgeting.

The planning process in an organization

Planning activities can be divided into several main stages (Figure 3.1).

differences

Feedback (corrective information)

Rice. 3.1 Planning activities in an economic organization

The process of planning, or the direct process of planning, that is, making decisions about the future goals of the organization and how to achieve them. The result of the planning process is a system of plans (4).

Activities for the implementation of planned decisions. The results of this activity are the real performance indicators of the organization (5).

Results control. At this stage, real results are compared with planned indicators, as well as the creation of prerequisites for adjusting the organization's actions in the right direction. Despite the fact that control is the last stage of planning activities, its importance is very high, since it is control that establishes the effectiveness of the planning process in the organization (3).

In this way, The planning process is the first step general activities firms.

The planning process is not an easy one. subsequence planning operations and procedure, the meaning of which is that one event must necessarily occur after another. The process requires great flexibility and managerial skill. If certain points in the process do not meet the objectives of the organization, they can be bypassed, which is not possible in the procedure. The people involved in the planning process do not just perform the functions assigned to them, but act creatively and are capable of changing the nature of the action if circumstances so require.

The business planning process consists of a series of steps following each other (Fig. 3.2).

Rice. 3.2 The planning process in an economic organization

First stage. The firm conducts research on the external and internal environment of the organization. Identifies the main components of the organizational environment, highlights those that really matter to the organization, collects and monitors information about these components, makes forecasts for the future state of the environment, and assesses the real situation of the company.

Second phase. The firm establishes guidelines for its activities: vision, mission, set of goals. Sometimes the stage of setting goals precedes the analysis of the environment.

Third stage. Strategic analysis. The company compares the goals (desired indicators) and the results of studies of external and internal environmental factors (limiting the achievement of the desired indicators), determines the gap between them. With the help of methods of strategic analysis, various options for the strategy are formed.

Fourth stage. One of the alternative strategies is selected and its development is carried out.

Fifth stage. The final strategic plan of the company is being prepared.

Sixth stage. Medium term planning. Medium-term plans and programs are being prepared.

Seventh stage. Based on the strategic plan and the results of medium-term planning, the firm develops annual operational plans and projects.

Eighth and ninth stages not being stages of the direct planning process, nevertheless, they determine the prerequisites for creating new plans, which should take into account:

what the organization managed to do, realizing its plans;

what is the gap between planned indicators and actual performance.

In general, the planning process is a closed cycle with direct (from developing a strategy to determining operational plans to implementation and control) and reverse (from taking into account the results of implementation to reformulating the plan) communication.

3.2 System of firm plans

The result of the planning process is a system of plans. The plan includes key performance indicators to be achieved by the end of the planning period. Essentially, a plan is a set of instructions for managers describing what role each part of the organization should play in achieving the firm's goals.

The planning process is complex and varied. This determines the complex nature of the system of plans, which can be divided into the following elements.

Strategic plan, otherwise called the master plan of the company (often drawn up 5 years in advance).

Company-wide plans drawn up in continuation of the strategic plan and defining the main tasks of the organization's development. The basis of these plans is the developed plan.

Operational plans of the organization:

company-wide plans for current activities, the so-called "economic plans", or "profit plans", are calculated for one year. With the help of current activity plans, goods and services are produced and supplied to the market;

current plans of subdivisions, including budgetary ones, complement the company-wide plans for current activities.

In addition to plans, the outputs of the planning process are programs(or plans-programs) and projects.

strategic plan includes a vision and mission, common goals that determine the place of the organization in the future, selected action strategies. An integral part of the strategic plan is the policy of the organization. The strategic plan includes the global programs of the organization.

The strategic plan is the guideline for acceptance decisions at lower levels; the general goals of the organization, defined in the strategic plan, are specified in the goals of current activities, called tasks. In addition, the strategic plan is a limiter for plans of lower levels, since it limits the number of resources needed to solve the tasks of operational planning.

The action plans of any organization can be characterized as either offensive or defensive. Offensive plans involve the development of the organization: the production of new goods and services, entering new markets, gaining competitive advantage. Offensive plans are usually created by large firms with high economic potential.

Medium and small firms in many cases are content with defensive plans aimed at maintaining their positions in the market and preventing the bankruptcy of the company.

Organization development plan, being an expression of offensive plans, it includes a set of measures necessary to create new areas of the company's activities. The development plan should determine the ways to enter new positions and be able to answer the following questions.

What will be the conditions of demand in the future, what goods and services will consumers expect from this economic organization?

What should be the nature of the internal elements of the organization necessary for its development?

What new types of products should be added to the nomenclature of the enterprise or what part of the main products should be replaced by new goods and services?

textbook for students higher training establishments Publishing house NORMA Moscow, 2001 Authors textbook: M. A. Sazhina, doctor economic... 162 § 5. Planning and production ... cool business; manifold... Specially for... funds for investment. Enterprise...

Depending on which horizon (period) of time the plans drawn up by the organization cover, planning is divided into three types:

long-term planning;

medium-term planning;

short term planning.

Medium term planning concretizes the milestones defined by the long-term plan. It may be for a shorter period. Until recently, the medium-term planning horizon was five years. However, the unforeseen nature and rate of change in the external environment forced many firms to reduce the length of their plans from five to three years; accordingly, five-year plans moved into the category of long-term plans.

All three types of planning should be linked to each other and not contradict each other.

Strategic and operational planning. The planning process in an economic organization

Strategic planning

The concept of "strategy" is of Greek origin. Initially, it had a military meaning and meant the "art of the general" to find the right path to achieve victory.

A strategy cannot simply be a definition of desired goals and convenient ways to implement them. Wishful thinking is not the same as developing a strategy. The strategy should not come from pleasant dreams, but from the real possibilities for the development of the company. Therefore, the strategy is, first of all, the organization's response to the objective external and internal circumstances of its activities.

Typically, strategic planning is designed for a long period, although in many organizations the strategy is based on medium-term planning (the second method is more acceptable for Russian organizations operating in conditions of extremely high uncertainty). At the same time, strategic and long-term planning, as already noted, are ambiguous processes. Strategy is not a function of time, but primarily a function of direction. It is not just focused on a given period of time, but includes a set of global ideas for the development of the company.

1.4. STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

If we compare the manager with the captain of the ship, then the problem of choosing a path becomes clearer. Where to sail? Tools for answering this question are provided by strategic management, i.e. strategic planning and management.

1.4.1. Planning pyramid in strategic management

The first and main of the main functions of management (see chapter 1.2) is the function of forecasting and planning. Consider its components in relation to strategic planning.

Strategic planning should not be confused with long-term planning - usually for 10-15 years. The horizon of strategic planning depends on what kind of work the organization is engaged in. Strategic planning for the nuclear power industry is planning for decades ahead, and for a trading company - for two or three years ahead. The time to which strategic planning relates will come well after the end of the work that the organization is currently doing. Moreover, the boundaries of the time interval of strategic planning are blurred.

Company mission. When planning, obviously, one must proceed from what the company is intended for, what is its "mission" in the business world. For example, Avion's mission is to provide safe and profitable air transportation passengers and cargo". The mission of the company "Moscow State Technical University them. N.E. Bauman” - to train students and graduate students in the traditions of the Russian system of engineering education (in the relevant specialties).

In the most general terms, strategic management is a means of ensuring that the company fulfills its mission. Goal setting is the most difficult and responsible stage of planning. Formulating a firm's mission is the most important decision for founders and top managers. Changing the mission actually means closing the old company and opening a new one in its place, even if under the same name. The mission is the core of the company, the most stable part of its body. (Note that the company should be compared with a living organism, and not with a soulless dead machine!)

strategic goals. The specification of the company's mission is its strategic goals, i.e. fixed goals over a long period for which strategic planning is carried out. For Avion, such goals may be:

· expansion of the market segment in transatlantic transportation; improving flight safety;

· raising the general and professional level of training of personnel (pilots, technicians, stewardesses, managers, etc.);

Creation of a favorable social climate in the team;

Maintaining the composition of the air fleet and ground support at a level not lower than that of competitors, etc.

For the company "Moscow State Technical University named after N.E. Bauman" strategic goals may be:

raising the high scientific level of the teaching staff (and for this, the development of scientific research at the university at the world level), mastering it modern technologies teaching, equipped teaching materials on paper and electronic media;

· organizing a recruitment of well-trained applicants who are able to master the specialties taught at the institute at a level that gives graduates the necessary competitiveness in the labor market;

creation and maintenance of the material and technical base necessary for the implementation of high-quality educational process;

provision necessary control for the quality of work of teachers and students, etc.

Obviously, for strategic purposes, it is practically impossible to give numerical values for the parameters to be achieved, or the time frame in which this must be done. It would be a simplification to say that the timeframe for achieving the strategic goal is, say, 10 years. It is more correct not to determine the term, but to discuss long-term planning for an indefinite period of time. Some strategic goals, such as achieving superiority over competitors, must be constantly achieved.

Company tasks. The next level of specification is the tasks that must be solved in order to achieve a particular strategic goal. For example, for the Avion company, the tasks may be:

99% yield of the aircraft arrival on time;

· Creation of a system of annual retraining of pilots and stewardesses;

· annual purchase of at least 3 modern aircraft, etc.

For the company "Moscow State Technical University named after N.E. Bauman" the tasks may be:

· Ensuring the presence of at least 20% of professors - doctors of science and 50% of associate professors - candidates of science in the teaching staff;

ensuring a favorable age composition of teachers (for example, average age teachers should not be less than 40 and more than 50 years old);

Ensuring regular scientific work of teachers (for example, everyone must publish at least 5 articles within 5 years). scientific works and speak at least at 3 conferences of the All-Russian and international level);

· in the system of pre-university training, applicants in various schools, circles, and courses should attend at least 4,000 schoolchildren annually;

Departments of the institute should be equipped with computers connected to an electronic network that provides email inside the institute and giving teachers and students direct access to the Internet, etc.

Although there are numerical parameters in some of the tasks listed, they are still not enough for specific planning and control, so the next level of planning is fully defined specific tasks, the degree of completion of which can be unambiguously assessed.

specific tasks. Consider, for example, the above task for the company "Avion" - reaching 99% of the indicator of aircraft arrival on time. First of all, you need to add a due date, for example, within 2 years. Then the task becomes a specific task, for which further analysis is required. First of all, what are the reasons for the planes not arriving on time? Some of the reasons are obvious - a headwind that delays planes, a sidewind that deviates them from the optimal route calculated in the absence of wind, and a tailwind that delivers them to their destination airport ahead of schedule. To eliminate the influence of wind at the time of aircraft arrival, it is necessary to develop aircraft control algorithms and coordinate them with ground services. You can also ask a counter question - do all flights have to arrive just in time? A positive answer is obvious if the destination is a major airport where 1-2 planes land every minute. If, on the other hand, 1-2 planes per week land at the field airfield and the flight is not urgent, then it obviously makes sense to sacrifice the accuracy of arrival for the sake of, for example, saving fuel or improving flight safety. It is quite reasonable to correct a specific task, task, strategic goal or even the mission of the company as a result of careful planning analysis.

For the company "Moscow State Technical University named after N.E. Bauman", the task was indicated to have at least 20% of professors - doctors of sciences and 50% of associate professors - candidates of sciences in the composition of teachers. To turn this task into a set of specific tasks, it is necessary :

Analyze the composition of the staff at the moment,

Predict its natural change (as a result of the retirement of older teachers, the transition of other employees to another job, etc.),

Assess the opportunities for professional development (thesis defense) for specific employees, as well as the possibility of attracting new staff.

After that, it will be possible to plan an active personnel policy and evaluate its results in improving the professional level of staff. Is the task at all achievable? And if it is achievable, then in what time frame? And after all the described analysis, a specific action plan should be approved.

We discussed the entire planning pyramid - from the top (the mission of the top) through the second layer - strategic goals (there are usually no more than 10 of them) and the third - tasks (tens of tasks can be directed to achieve strategic goals, so total number The firm's tasks can be rated as 100) down to the foot-specific tasks. A dozen specific tasks may be needed to solve each task, so the total number of specific tasks performed in any big firm- thousands. The scheduling technology discussed in Chapter 1.2 allows you to turn thousands of individual specific tasks into overall plan of the company, balanced in terms of material, personnel and financial costs. This plan is very specific for the near future (say, a year), and moves to more and more general (non-specific, indefinite, vague) formulations as it moves away into the future.

Arrow "Present - Future". As already noted, the planning process was previously analyzed in detail. In the case of strategic management, a feature of this process is the aspiration to the distant future. We are moving from the particular to the general, which corresponds to the movement from the bustle of the present to the far horizon of planning - the mountain peaks of the future:

specific tasks - tasks - strategic goals -

- company mission.

At the same time, when moving from the foot of the planning pyramid to its top, the questions we answer change as follows:

What exactly needs to be done? What do you need to achieve in general? Why are we working?

When moving from the short term to the long term, we go through the following stages of planning:

operational planning - business planning -

- strategy Development.

Operational planning is understood as plans for the near future, primarily related to the implementation of current work under existing contracts (orders). Operational planning is usually short-term - something between one day and one year.

"Long term" refers to the analysis and planning of changes that should not end very soon, say, in ten years. This is exactly the typical period from an idea to the release of a new brand of car or aircraft.

Between the long term and short term planning lies medium-term planning - for 3 - 5 years. And between strategic and operational planning is business planning, which answers the question: “What will we do after completing all the available orders?”

Comparison of strategic and operational management. Strategic planning is the basis of strategic management. In addition to the function of forecasting and planning, other basic management functions are “included”, discussed in chapter 1.2. Comparison of strategic and operational management by nine features is presented in Table 1, taken from the monograph.

Table 1.

Comparison of strategic and operational management

signs	Strategic management	Operational management
Hierarchical steps	Mainly at the level senior management	Includes all levels with main focus on middle management
Uncertainty	Significantly higher
Problem type	Most problems are not structured	Relatively well structured
time horizon	Emphasis on long-term as well as medium- and short-term aspects	Emphasis on short- and medium-term aspects
Required information	First of all from the external environment	First of all from the enterprise itself
Plan Alternatives	The range of alternatives is broad	Spectrum limited
	Concentration on certain important positions	Covers all functional areas and integrates them
Degree of detail	low	Relatively large
Main controlled values	Potentials for success (e.g. growth in market share)	Profit, profitability, liquidity

To operational management applies, for example, to the distribution of profits between dividends and the enterprise development fund. Here there is a conflict between the momentary interests of shareholders and the strategic development of the company. It is clear that any investments and expenses for the development and implementation of innovations reduce the profit of the current year. But without such expenses, the enterprise is doomed to loss of competitiveness in the future.

Managers are quite often co-owners of the enterprise. Why is it profitable for a shareholder to receive a salary? Because the amount of salary decreases profits, and therefore income tax. Since the same income tax (as a percentage) is taken from dividends and salaries, and the income tax rate is less than the income tax rate, the “pumping” of money into salary increases the manager’s income (and, accordingly, reduces deductions to the budget).

Expert methods in strategic management. What will happen in ten years? It is enough to think about this formulation of the question, to analyze how ten years ago we imagined the present day, in order to understand that there simply cannot be 100% reliable forecasts. Instead of statements with specific numbers, one can only expect qualitative assessments. Nevertheless, we must make decisions that will have consequences in ten, twenty, and so on. years. How to be? It remains to turn to the methods expert assessments(chapter 3.4).

1.4.2. Planning horizon problem

in strategic management

Let us continue the discussion begun above of the influence of the choice of the planning horizon on the decisions made. Note that in many real situations, the duration of, for example, an investment project is not fully defined, or the investor's planning horizon does not cover the entire duration of the project until the disposal stage. In such cases, it is important to study the influence of the planning horizon on the decisions made.

Let's consider a hypothetical example. Suppose I am the owner of a factory. If my planning horizon is 1 month, then I will receive the highest cash income by selling the enterprise (including buildings, raw materials, technological equipment, the land on which the enterprise stands - if, of course, I have the right to sell it). If I plan for a year, then I will first incur costs by purchasing raw materials and paying for the labor of workers, and only then, by selling products, will I make a profit. If I plan for 10 years, then I will go to great expense, purchasing licenses and new equipment, with the aim of increasing income in the coming years. When planning for 30 years, it makes sense to invest in the creation and development of your own research center, etc.

We emphasize - real investments (in fixed assets - in buildings, equipment, design developments, etc.), which will pay off in next years, this year will worsen many financial and economic indicators of the enterprise, reduce its profits, reduce profitability indicators, as a result, shareholders will receive - this year - less.

Thus, the popular statement "the firm works to maximize profits" or "the goal of the firm is to maximize profits" does not have an exact meaning. For what period to maximize profit - for a month, a year, 10 or 30 years? The decisions made depend on the planning horizon. Understanding this, a number of Western economists refuse to consider firms as instruments for making profit, prefer to look at them as quasi-living beings, trying to ensure the continuation of their existence and further development. Accordingly, strategic management proceeds from the concepts of "company mission", "strategic goals" (for example, strategic goal may take the form: "increase the market share controlled by the firm"), which cannot be directly expressed in monetary units (for more details, see, for example, ).

Before discussing directly the influence of the planning horizon on the decisions made by the manager, let's consider some optimization models used in decision-making (Chapter 3.2 is devoted to optimization methods).

Characterization of models with discounting. Let, for simplicity of presentation, time take discrete values. Then the development of the economic situation is described by the sequence where the variables xj lie in some space X, possibly of a rather complex nature. It should also be noted that the position at the next moment cannot be arbitrary, it is connected with the position at the previous moment. It is easiest to assume that there is some set To such that the result economic activity per j-th period is described by the value Dependence not only on the initial and final positions, but also on the number of the period economic situation. Wishing to maximize the total results of economic activity, we arrive at the formulation of a standard dynamic programming problem:

Thus, it is necessary to choose a design ( ) that satisfies the above restrictions, on which the functional Fm. Naturally, it is assumed that the set possible transitions To is such that the domain of the functional Fm not empty. Under the usual mathematical assumptions, the maximum is reached.

As is known, problem (1) often arises in many applied economic and econometric areas, in macroeconomics, in logistics (inventory management) (see, for example, the monograph).

Models are widely proposed, studied and applied, leading to the following special case of problem (1):

These are models with discounting (as you know, the discount factor). It is natural to try to find out what "internal" properties distinguish problems of type (2) from all problems of type (1). In particular, why is the characteristic so popular? investment project NPV (Net Present Value)- net present value), relating to characteristics of the discounted type and discussed in detail below (chapter 2.3).

It is of interest to study and compare the plans of the possible economic behavior on the k steps and . (Naturally, we assume that all pairs of neighboring elements are included in the set To.) It is natural to carry out the comparison with the help of functions describing the results of economic activity participating in tasks (1) and (2). Namely, we will say that the plan X 1 better plan X 2 in implementation since i, if

Will write X 1 R(i)X 2, if inequality (3) holds, where R(i)- a binary relation on the set of plans, which specifies the ordering of plans by the relation "better".

It is clear that the ordering of plans for k steps, defined using the binary relation R(i), may depend on i, i.e. The "goodness" of a plan depends on when i it starts to happen. From the point of view of the real economy, this is quite understandable. For example, action plans that are quite rational for a period of stable development are no good for a period of hyperinflation. Conversely, operations acceptable during a period of hyperinflation will not bring an effect in a stable environment.

However, it is easy to see that in models with discounting (2) all orderings R(i) match , i = 1,2, …, m-k. It turns out - this is the main theoretical result of this subsection - that the opposite is also true: if the orderings coincide, then we are dealing with problem (2) - a problem with discounting, and it suffices to match only when k=1.2. Let us formulate in more detail the assumptions about the stability of the ordering of plans.

(I). Let One of two things is true: either

for all or

for all

(II). Let one of two things be true: either

for all or

for all

As shown in detail for the first time in the work , under certain intra-mathematical regularity conditions, the stability conditions for the ordering of plans (I) and (II) imply the existence of constants and such that

Since adding a constant does not change the point at which the function reaches its maximum, the last relation means that the stability conditions for the ordering of plans (I) and (II) characterize (in other words, uniquely distinguish) discounted models among all dynamic programming models.

The mathematical conditions under which the discounted model characterization theorem was proved gradually weakened throughout the 1970s (see about this in ), but these intra-mathematical improvements did not affect the economic side of the matter.

Asymptotically optimal plans. Consider model (2) with , i.e. no discount model

Under natural mathematical assumptions, which we will not dwell on, for each m there is an optimal plan for which the optimized function reaches its maximum. Since the choice of planning horizon cannot be rationally justified, we would like to build an action plan that is close to optimal for different planning horizons. This means that the goal is to build an infinite sequence such that its initial segment of length m, those. , gives approximately the same value of the optimized functional as the value for the optimal plan. An infinite sequence is called an asymptotically optimal plan.

Let us find out whether it is possible to use directly the optimal plan to construct an asymptotically optimal plan. Let's fix k and consider the sequence . It is easy to construct examples showing that, first, the elements in this sequence will change; secondly, they may not have limits. Therefore, optimal plans can behave extremely irregularly, and therefore, in such cases, they cannot be used to construct asymptotically optimal plans.

Nevertheless, it can be proved (the corresponding economic-mathematical theory is developed in chapter 5 of the monograph) that asymptotically optimal plans exist, i.e. one can specify infinite sequences such that

With the help of this approach, the problem of the planning horizon is solved - it is necessary to use asymptotically optimal plans that do not depend on the planning horizon. Interestingly, the optimal trajectory of movement consists of three sections - initial, final and main, and the main section is movement along the highway. A complete analogy with the movement of vehicles: to get somewhere, you must first go to the highway (highway), drive along a good road as close to the goal as possible, then overcome the final section.

1.4.3. Some Decision Methods

in strategic management

Let's consider several widely used practical decision-making tools in strategic management.

Information and tools for strategic planning. The starting points for strategic planning are:
- structure of competitors;
- structure of sales markets;
- trends in technical development and fashion evolution;
- structure of supply markets;
- legal, social, technological, economic, environmental and political environment;
- own strengths and weaknesses.

Based on the above data, in accordance with the mission of the company, long-term goals are selected and the resources that are needed for this are analyzed. The tools of strategic planning are, in addition to the method of expert assessments mentioned above, the analysis of "gaps", the analysis of chances and risks (strong and weaknesses), portfolio analysis, the checklist method, the scoring method, the concept of the product life cycle, and also other methods of forecasting, planning and decision making.

When analyzing “gaps”, three possible scenarios for the development of a firm are compared:
- what turnover (profit and other characteristics of the enterprise) can be achieved if nothing changes in the sales process in the future (scenario A);
- what turnover can be achieved if we try to penetrate more intensively with the existing product into the existing markets with the maximum effort of forces (scenario B);
- if in addition (to scenario B) to develop new products and/or new markets (scenario C).

The difference between the results for scenarios B and A is called the operational gap, and between the results for scenarios C and B is called the strategic gap. This terminology emphasizes the role of innovation in a firm's strategic plan - developing new products or entering new markets, or both.

Boston Consulting Group Portfolio Matrix. In strategic planning, it may be useful to analyze the portfolio of an enterprise (Table 2). It must be borne in mind that this is not about strategic planning for the entire enterprise, but for its “strategic divisions”. They are distinguished by product-market combinations that:
homogeneous, i.e. are aimed at a certain rather homogeneous circle of consumers;
Can operate independently from other departments of the enterprise;
manage a large enough market share so that research to develop a specific strategy is beneficial.

Table 2.

Boston Consulting Group Portfolio Matrix

By entering the goods (taking into account their share in the turnover of the company) in the corresponding cells of Table 2, it is possible to calculate the share successful products type 1 (Stars), which may need further funding to increase and sustain success. Although the growth in demand for goods of type 2 (Cash Cows) is low, but due to their large market share, they can still bring good income in little-changing (stagnating) markets. The fate of Type 3 (Question Mark) goods is unclear. Are the high financial costs of expanding their market share justified? Goods of type 4 (Dogs) "earn" only their living.

Based on the analysis of Table 2, several possible strategies can be analyzed:
- “build”, i.e. "question marks" to translate into "stars";
- “keep”, i.e. "cash cows" should hold their market shares and strive for growth primarily to support the "stars" and "question marks";
- "harvest", i.e., without taking into account the long-term consequences, skim off the cream of the moment (we are talking about the "weak" - "cash cows", "dogs" and "question marks");
- “to move out”, i.e. “dogs” and “question marks” are taken off the market (stopped) because they don’t bring anything and are not expected to grow, etc.

In setting goals and strategies for further development, strategic units need mutual coordination, but without suppressing their identity (in other words, controlled decentralized leadership must be exercised by the company's management). The management of the company must direct individual divisions to attractive markets, discovering and using the synergistic effect from their interaction and rationally allocating resources. Thus, the company's management should ensure that the "cash cows" transfer part of the income to the "stars".

In table. 2 compares such characteristics of the manufactured product as "growth in demand" and "market share". It is clear that high growth corresponds to an early stage life cycle goods, and low - late stage. Usually, a high market share signals a long period of profit, and a low one - a short one. So, a high market share may be due to weak competition. A market leader can have a cost advantage per product - economies of scale!

List and summary evaluation methods. Widely used and highly useful tools strategic planning are also the checklist method and the scoring method. The first one is quite simple. A number of “success factors” are identified and all projects under consideration are assessed (for example, with the help of a commission of experts) on these factors. For example, Table 3 presents a form of a checklist for projects involving the organization of the release of certain goods (strategies such as "product-market").

Table 3

Checklist Example

Products
degree of innovation
Number of possible buyers
Willingness to cooperate in trade
Barriers to entry of new sellers
Provision with raw materials

Please note that the scores are given in a qualitative way (measured on an ordinal scale - see below in chapter 3.4). Any quantitative certainty would be only an illusion in such assessments.

It is advisable to divide the factors into "obligatory", "necessary" and "desirable". Those. introduce the weights of the factors expressed in qualitative form. The decision rule might be: "Force the planning of those product-to-market strategies in which all of the required factors and at least two of the required factors are 'good'."

The checklist method, in which both scores individual factors, and the weights of factors and decision-making methods are of a qualitative nature, corresponds to a quantitative twin - the method of total assessment.

Of course, it is much easier to operate with numbers than with qualitative estimates. No wonder mathematicians are usually eager to "digitize" the qualitative factors and weights. But at the same time, as we know from the theory of measurements (see below Chapter 3.4), subjectivity associated with the choice of the method of "digitizing" qualitative assessments and weights can be introduced into the final conclusions. In connection with what has been said, pay attention to the discussion of decision-making methods based on the use of expert assessments (Chapter 3.4), where, in particular, recommendations are given to reduce subjectivity in the choice of factor weights in a single summary assessment.

Consider a conditional example of calculating and using a single summary score. Let the estimates of factors 1 and 2 for products A and B be given in Table 4 (for simplicity of presentation, we omit the methods for obtaining numerical values in Table 4 and do not consider the errors of these values).

To obtain a summary estimate, it is necessary to know the weights of the factors. Let the experts rate factor 1 as twice as important as factor 2. Since the sum of the factor weights should be 1, the weight of factor 1 is 0.67, and factor 2 is 0.33.

Table 4

Total scoring method

Products

The total score for product A is

0.67 x 40% + 0.33 x 50% \u003d 26.8% + 16.5% \u003d 43.3%,

and the total score for product B is

0.67 x 90% + 0.33 x 20% = 60.3% + 6.6% = 66.9%.

However, obtaining summary scores is only a step in the decision-making process. We also need a selection criterion - which products to deal with and which not. The simplest formulation is to define a boundary. If the total estimate of the product is greater than this limit, then the planning work associated with it continues; if not, it is excluded from consideration as unpromising. If in the case under consideration such a boundary is chosen at the level of 55%, then work on product A stops, and work on product B continues.

Note that making a decision based on the boundary somewhat reduces the impact of specific digitization rules. For example, if for product A the ratings for factors A and B rise by 10% and reach 50% and 60%, respectively, then the total rating will be equal to

0.67 x 50% + 0.33 x 60% \u003d 33.5% + 19.8% \u003d 53.3%,

those. common decision does not change, product A remains among the unpromising.

The manager is the main person in long-term planning. If forecasting is a research work, its results can be compared with a searchlight that illuminates the main features of the future, then planning is private view decision making. For strategic planning and management, not only those methods of preparing and making decisions that are discussed above in this chapter, but also the entire arsenal of modern decision theory can be used.

However, all these simple or ingenious computer tricks are only an aid to the manager. It is he who is responsible for the fate of the company, and it is on his knowledge of the matter, on his intuition that he must rely when making decisions in strategic management.

Literature

1. Karminsky A.M., Olenev N.I., Primak A.G., Falko S.G. Controlling in business. Methodological and practical foundations building controlling in organizations. - M.: Finance and statistics, 1998. - 256 p.
2. Management / Ed. J.V. Prokofieva. - M.: Knowledge, 2000. - 288 p.
3. Orlov A.I. Sustainability in socio-economic models. - M.: Nauka, 1979. -296 p.
4. Orlov A. Sur la stabilite "dans les modeles economiques discrets et les modeles de gestion des stocks. // Publications Econometriques. 1977. Vol. X. F. 2. Pp. 63-81.
5. Shmalen G. Fundamentals and problems of enterprise economics. - M.: Finance and statistics, 1996. - 512 p.
6. Khan D. Planning and control: the concept of controlling / Per. with him. - M.: Finance and statistics, 1997. - 800 p.
7. Manilovsky R.G. Business plan. - M.: Finance and statistics, 1998. - 160 p.
8. Business planning: Methods. Organization. Modern practice. - M.: Finance and statistics, 1997. - 368 p.

test questions

1. Tell us about the planning pyramid in strategic management.
2. Compare strategic and operational management.
3. What distinguishes discounted models among all dynamic programming models?
4. Why is the use of an asymptotically optimal plan justified?
5. Describe the content and use of the Boston Consulting Group Portfolio Matrix.
6. What is the difference between the checklist and summary assessment methods?

Topics of reports and abstracts

1. Describe a planning pyramid for a firm you know.
2. Correlation between optimal and asymptotically optimal plans.
2. Strategic management tools.
3. The problem of stability of conclusions (in relation to small deviations of the initial data and subjective "digitization" of qualitative assessments) when solving problems of strategic management.
4. Methods for constructing a summary estimate of the project based on estimates of individual factors.
5. Methods for choosing weight coefficients in the tasks of strategic management.

The first and fundamental skill of a highly effective person, in my opinion, is not even goal setting, but a planning horizon. We measure goals in terms, not in numbers; The planning horizon is how many years ahead a person sees. Of course, there is a direct correlation with success. All successful people, regardless of age, gender, type of activity, etc., have a fairly distant planning horizon.

The planning horizon for a student in primary and secondary school - to do homework and not get a deuce. This is a small planning horizon, the child still does not really understand how grades can affect his future, the competitiveness of his certificate, final and entrance exams, etc. By high school, the situation begins to change: a high school student knows how a triple in a profile subject even for half a year, it can influence (or not) who he will become and what he will do. The planning horizon is like a kind of pyramid: the smaller it is, the less the significance of the goals that are included in it, and vice versa.

All successful people, regardless of age, gender, type of activity, etc., have a fairly distant planning horizon.

One of my comrades, a physician, when he studied at the university, several times remained in his third year, being the best student, an excellent student, reading an average of five hundred pages of specialized literature per week. When I asked why he did not move on to the next course, although he knew everything perfectly and only wasted time going through the same material every time, he said that he was not sure that he was ready to go further, that he needed to consolidate the basics of therapy. This is an example of a large, strong planning horizon, because a person sees and understands the connection between his present and future activities, allocates his time and funds in a certain way.