Consider the features and feasibility long-term budget planning .
The need for long-term budget planning has been actively discussed in Russia over the past few years.
The first steps in this direction were taken in 2008, when the Draft budget strategy Russian Federation for the period up to 2023, and also accepted guidelines for long-term planning of budget expenditures, which determined the general approach to compiling long-term forecasts of budget expenditures.
Key features of the budget strategy were formulated in the Budget Message of the President of the Russian Federation "On Budget Policy in 2008-2010": "... Budget strategy should be focused on promoting the social and economic development of the Russian Federation with unconditional consideration of the criteria for the efficiency and effectiveness of budget expenditures. The budget message identified the tasks that should be focused on in the formation and implementation of the budget strategy.
In 2008, by the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of November 17, 2008 No. 1662-r, it was approved The concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2020. However, in this document there was no section devoted to the issues of financial support for achieving the planned strategic goals and solving the tasks set.
A similar situation has developed with the approved by the Government of the Russian Federation The strategies for the socio-economic development of the federal districts until 2020
World financial crisis 2009-2010 pushed back the issue of formation long-term budget strategy. Wherein, the task of transition to long-term budget planning has not lost its relevance. This is evidenced by the Budget Message of the President of the Russian Federation " On the budget policy for the period 2013-2015».
In this message, it was noted that, along with the introduction of program budget, it is necessary to pay attention to the validity of the implementation mechanisms and resource provision government programs, their correlations with long-term goals of social economic policy states.
The tool for such correlation should be Budget strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030, which determines the main features of the budget policy for various options for the development of the Russian and world economies.
In addition, according to The main directions of the budget policy for 2013 and planning period 2014 and 2015, the main objectives of the budget policy for 2013 also included the development long-term budget strategy for the period up to 2030
At the end of 2013, the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation developed Draft Budget Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030
1The article deals with the problems of development and implementation of long-term budget planning in the Russian Federation. Despite the advantages of long-term plans and forecasts, the calculations of the main indices and indicators of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation are carried out under conditions of uncertainty in the dynamics of energy prices and exacerbation of external risks. Innovations in the development of the budget strategy until 2030, factors limiting the growth of budget revenues are considered. The need to transform the system is substantiated government controlled and the introduction of monitoring the fulfillment of the obligations of the budget strategy. The process of developing a long-term budget strategy is considered, which proceeds as follows: first, the analytical activity of the current state of the economy and the dynamics of socio-economic development over the past few years is carried out, then work begins with indicators of budget execution (consolidated budgets) over the past few years, then certain tendencies and priorities of the budget policy, the main factors of the discrepancy between the predicted indicators and real indicators for the analyzed period are determined. After the operations, a draft long-term budget strategy of the state is developed, which is based on the socio-economic state of the economy and focuses on achieving the set strategic goals enshrined in the strategies of socio-economic development.
forecasting
budget strategy
monitoring
1. Government program Russian Federation "Public Financial Management" of 2013.
2. Grudinova I.P., Risk management of the financial and budgetary development of the region (municipal formation) / I.P. Grudinova, N.V. Perko. - M.: Bulletin of MSTU, 2012. - No. 1. - v.15. - 170s.
3. Klimov V.V., On the formation of a budget strategy at the regional and municipal level / V.V. Klimov, A.A. Mikhailov. – M.: Finance. - 2011. - No. 2. - 56s.
4. Lisin N.V., Formation of the budget strategy of the subject of the Russian Federation. - M.: BelGU - 2012. - 49p.
5. Draft Budget Strategy for the period up to 2023.
The main task of long-term budget planning is to coordinate the priorities of the ongoing budget policy with the goals of achieving long-term sustainable economic growth, as well as improving the level and quality of life of the population. Long-term budget planning helps reduce the risks of fiscal sustainability in the face of unfavorable long-term trends.
In Russia, the demographic situation (population aging) and the “raw material trap” (dependence of the economy on the commodity sector and external conjuncture market). Long-term planning allows you to formulate priority tasks, evaluate necessary resources for their implementation and identify possible sources of these resources. Also this species planning helps to substantiate the need for structural reforms in the public sector and a balanced approach to their implementation. Long-term planning contributes to curbing unreasonable growth, increasing the effectiveness and efficiency of budget expenditures.
The State Program of the Russian Federation "Public Financial Management", whose goals are proclaimed to ensure long-term sustainability budget system and balance of budgets, improving the quality of public financial management, consists of 9 subprograms, one of which is a long-term financial planning. The main results of this subprogram are: 1) development of a long-term budget strategy for the Russian Federation; 2) monitoring the implementation and application of the "budget rule". The first result is expressed in the development of a methodology for the formation of the principles of long-term budget planning. The combination of adaptability of fiscal policy instruments and increased efficiency of budget spending will lead to the fulfillment of long-term obligations and ensuring a balanced budget.
Monitoring consists in tracking the level of real oil prices and the "base" price of oil. When a situation arises when the "base" price is lower than the real one, the excess income from the oil and gas sector is directed to the Reserve Fund.
This subprogram is most characterized by the risks of external influence. These include fluctuations in oil prices, falling demand for oil and gas products, etc. For example, a decrease in the price of Urals oil by 10 p.p. entails a decrease in federal budget revenues in the amount of more than 1% of GDP. With oil prices up to $60 per barrel, the volume of the Reserve Fund can finance the lack of income for 2 years.
The calculation of the main indices and indicators of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, used in the preparation of the budget development strategy until 2023, was made on the basis of the economic policy goals defined by the Concept of the long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation.
The forecast of revenues of the budget system in the budget strategy was built for the duration of the budget strategy and not in one version. For example, in one of the first editions of the Budget Strategy for the period up to 2030, three options for the development of events were developed for different levels Urals oil prices. One of the innovations in the 2030 Budget Strategy is the application of a new fiscal rule. This rule came into effect in 2013. The term “budget rule” itself means that budget expenditures should be formed depending on oil prices over the past years (not based on forecasts).
One of the current obstacles to the immediate implementation of the Long-Term Budget Strategy until 2030 is the annexation of Crimea to the Russian Federation, which led to an increase in territory and population. Disagreements arose between the Ministry of Economic Development (opinion on relaxing the budget rule) and the Ministry of Finance (opinion on finding resources without changing the budget rule).
The development of the economy in the forecast period will be associated with a negative demographic situation and a decrease in the share of the working-age population from 62.9% (2009) to 53% (2023). Due to the decrease this indicator The unemployment rate, which is projected at less than 3%, will also decrease. In a deficit work force share of real wages in GDP will grow from 25% (2008) to 29% (2023).
Urals oil prices are projected to rise to $106 per barrel by 2023. The average annual growth rate of hydrocarbon production will increase by 0.5% for oil and 1.9% for gas. It is planned that oil exports will not change, and exports natural gas will increase by about 3% per year.
To go to new system long-term budget planning, measures are needed to transform the public administration system: 1) inventory of budget obligations - refusal to finance those activities that hinder sustainable economic growth; 2) development and implementation of a system for distributing budgetary funds for subordinate programs that solve especially important social and economic problems; 3) improvement of the system of state and municipal procurement; 4) transition to division into budget institutions new type, autonomous and state-owned institutions. As a result, the reduction of the public sector and the increase in the efficiency of its activities.
The process of developing a long-term budget strategy proceeds as follows: first, an analytical activity is carried out on the current state of the economy and the dynamics of socio-economic development over the past few years. Next, work begins with the performance indicators of budgets (consolidated budgets) over the past few years, certain trends and priorities of budget policy are identified, and the main factors of discrepancy between forecasted indicators and real indicators for the analyzed period are identified. After the operations, a draft long-term budget strategy of the state is developed, which is based on the socio-economic state of the economy and focuses on achieving the set strategic goals enshrined in the strategies of socio-economic development.
Any project, whether adopted at the federal or any other level, must have certain results. To evaluate them, it is necessary to monitor the implementation of the budget strategy of the country and the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The budget strategy is effective only when all its obligations are fulfilled and financed.
Bibliographic link
Bondarenko D.S. PROBLEMS OF LONG-TERM BUDGET PLANNING UNDER UNCERTAINTY // International Student scientific bulletin. – 2016. – № 2.;URL: http://eduherald.ru/ru/article/view?id=15138 (date of access: 03/25/2020). We bring to your attention the journals published by the publishing house "Academy of Natural History"
Long-term budget planning is carried out by forming the budget forecast of the Russian Federation for long term, the budget forecast of the constituent entity of the Russian Federation for the long term, as well as the budget forecast of the municipality in the long term, if the representative body of the municipality has decided to form it in accordance with the requirements of the budget code. A long-term budget forecast is a document containing a forecast of the main characteristics of the relevant budgets (consolidated budgets) of the budget system of the Russian Federation, indicators of financial support for state and municipal programs for the period of their validity, other indicators characterizing budgets (consolidated budgets of the budget system), as well as containing the main approaches to the formation of budgetary policy for the long term.
The budget forecast of the Russian Federation, a subject of the Russian Federation for the long term, is developed every 6 years for 12 years or more based on the forecast of socio-economic development.
The budget forecast of the municipality for the long term is developed every 3 years for 6 years based on the forecast of the socio-economic development of the municipality.
The budget forecast may be changed taking into account changes in the forecast of social and economic development. The procedure for development and approval, the period of validity, as well as the requirements for the composition and content, are established by the government of the Russian Federation at the federal level, the highest executive body state power subject of the Russian Federation, local administration at the local level.
State and municipal programs are also plans, state. municipal programs are approved by the government of the Russian Federation, the highest executive body of the state. authorities, subject of the Russian Federation, local administrations of the municipality.
The timing of the implementation of these programs will be determined by them. The procedure for making decisions on the development of state. and municipal programs, the formation and implementation of these programs, are established in accordance with regulatory legal acts, the government of the Russian Federation, the highest executive body of the state. authorities, the subject of the Russian Federation and the local administration of the municipality.
State. municipal programs must be brought into line with the law (decision) on the budget no later than 3 months from the date of its entry into force. For each state municipal program, an annual assessment of the effectiveness of its implementation is carried out. Based on the results of the assessment, a decision can be made on the need to terminate or change, starting with the next fiscal year, previously approved by the state. municipal program, including the need to change the volume of budget allocations for financial support for the implementation of state. municipal program.
Financial resources of the corporation: Own and borrowed.
Own funds - Depreciation, own funds, profit.
Attracted financial resources - loans, subsidies. loans.
Financial instruments of the organization are divided into 3 groups:
1. Funding tools - where to get the money from
2. Investment tools - where to invest temporarily free money (stocks, bonds, precious metals, deposits, etc.)
3. and others. - insurance and leasing.
Corporations may enter into financial relationships with:
1. State (taxes, subsidies)
2. Other corporations, organizations
3. With physical. persons (for example, payment of dividends)
Among the key changes envisaged by the document is the introduction of long-term budget planning in Russia. Such planning is supposed to be carried out by forming a budget forecast of the Russian Federation, subjects of the Russian Federation and municipalities for the long term. Thus, the budget forecast of the Russian Federation and the regions will be developed every six years for 12 or more years. In turn, the municipal authorities will form a budget forecast every three years for six or more years. At the same time, budget forecasts must be approved by the authorized authorities within two months from the date of the official publication of the law (decision) on the relevant budget.
The long-term budget forecast will include a forecast of the main characteristics of the relevant budgets (consolidated budgets), indicators of financial support for state (municipal) programs, other indicators characterizing budgets, as well as the main approaches to the formation of budget policy for the long term.
In addition, in order to intensify road construction in 2015 and 2016, the base budget allocations of the Federal Road Fund were increased. Thus, in 2015 it will amount to 546.2 billion rubles, in 2016 - 561.7 billion rubles. Of these, the budgets of the regions will be provided with 91.2 and 69.3 billion rubles. respectively. In the future, the basic volume of budget allocations of the Federal Road Fund will be determined in the amount of 345 billion rubles annually indexed to inflation, and budget allocations equal to the projected volume of revenues from excises on automobile and straight-run gasoline, diesel fuel and engine oils received by the budgets of the regions, increased by 1.1 times.
In turn, excises on motor gasoline, straight-run gasoline, diesel fuel, motor oils for diesel and carburetor (injector) engines produced in Russia are excluded from tax revenue of the federal budget and are included in full (100%) in the list of sources of tax revenues for the budgets of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Previously, they were distributed between the federal and regional budgets in the amount of 28% and 72%, respectively.
In addition, the law provides:
- improvement of the norms concerning the use of the resources of the Reserve Fund. Thus, when calculating additional oil and gas revenues of the federal budget, it is allowed to use data on oil and gas revenues, not only based on the forecast oil price, but also data on oil and gas revenues actually received by the federal budget for the reporting financial year;
- the possibility of using additional oil and gas revenues, and in case of their lack, the resources of the Reserve Fund, to replace federal budget revenues that are not received during the execution of the federal budget and to replace sources of financing the federal budget deficit;
- the possibility of making interbudgetary transfers from the budgets of state off-budget funds the budget of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation, in particular, interbudgetary transfers from the budget Federal Fund compulsory medical insurance to the federal budget in the form of subsidies;
- establishment of a mechanism for the indisputable collection of tax amounts from taxpayers (tax agents) - organizations that have personal accounts opened in accordance with the budget legislation of the Russian Federation;
- an exception from the norms establishing the procedure for the President of the Russian Federation to send an annual budget message to the Federal Assembly. However, it is envisaged that the drafting of budgets is based, among other things, on the provisions of the message of the President of the Russian Federation to the Federal Assembly, which determine the budget policy (requirements for it) in Russia;
- repeal of provisions on consolidated financial balance RF (document characterizing the scope and use financial resources Russia and sectors of the economy).
Federal Law No. 283-FZ of October 4, 2014 "" entered into force on the day of its official publication - October 6, 2014, with the exception of certain norms for which a different period of entry into force is established.