Study and marketing analysis of market conditions (market conditions). Market situation: analysis of the situation, methods and essence of analysis Studying the market situation

Wanting to improve its position within the market, the manufacturer must know what factors are most conducive to the promotion of goods. This is where market analysis comes in. The market situation is not just the ratio of supply and demand, as many people think. This is a fairly complex mechanism, subject to constant fluctuations that displace both old and new players. We will tell you how to conduct an analysis that is vital for any enterprise.

What is market analysis?

Market conditions are the situation established in the market at a certain point in time under the influence of the main economic forces: supply and demand. Depending on supply and demand, goods move, market price on products, manufacturers appear or disappear, the capitalization of the company grows or decreases, and in general there are fluctuations in the markets.

Market analysis is an analysis that is designed to assess the situation in the market for goods or services in order to establish an enterprise strategy.

Why is it needed?

By analyzing the current market situation, the company is able to:

identify your position in the industry;
identify competitors and choose a method of dealing with them;
find out the preferences of consumers and satisfy the demand for a torus or service;
simulate the prospects of the product;
identify areas of action and translate them into a strategic plan.

Analysis of market conditions must be performed not only when the company already has its own niche, but also when a new player only wants to get it. AT this case market analysis allows you to determine the size of barriers to entry into the industry, the degree of market congestion, the prospects for this industry, etc.

Target

The purpose of this analysis is to establish the current behavior of supply and demand and the degree of influence of economic objects on the behavior of the market, in order to make the right management decisions that contribute to obtaining more profit at lower production costs. All this is the essence of market analysis.

Tasks

Just like any other study, this type of analysis involves setting certain tasks. In this case, the tasks are:

Choose the most complete and up-to-date information about competitors: identify the level of demand for a competitive product, draw parallels between the pricing of your own company and that of a competitor, study suppliers and their prices for raw materials and materials, determine the threat of substitutes, etc.
All indicators must be systematized.
Identify all the factors that have an impact on the behavior of the market, establish their strength, relationship and direction of their action.
Establish the degree of activity of all factors and their interaction for compiling the forecast production of the company.

Factors affecting the market environment

Market conditions, market analysis can be influenced by those factors that, to one degree or another, have an impact on changes in the scale of production, pricing, emission valuable papers etc.

These include:

the degree of market balance (demand = supply, in ideal proportion);
the degree of deviation of the main characteristics of the market;
current, likely or deformable prospects that are emerging in the market;
traffic finished products and goods;
the probability of capital loss under the prevailing conditions;
the number of intra-industry competitors;
development of an alternative commodity unit.

Research methods

To conduct a full-scale analysis of market conditions, statistics come to the rescue. Statistical Methods can be divided into 6 main groups. Thus, the methods of market analysis include:

Statistical observation- tracking the operation of the market in real time to collect data, the volume of which would allow a complete analysis.
Selection and grouping of the received information.
Descriptive analysis, which includes compiling a frequency table, calculating characteristics, or graphical presentation of information.
Reduction of the obtained results to a single conclusion.
Link analysis - used to determine the degree of relationship between the objects of statistical research (the volume of products supplied to the market and its quality).
Making a forecast of market behavior. It gives an idea of how supply and demand for a particular product or industry as a whole will behave.

Additional Methods

If the target consumer of the produced goods is the population, then resort to additional methods of market analysis. The market situation in this case becomes more global, and additional mechanisms are used for its assessment methods, including:

game theory;
building models that can simulate the market;
analysis of factors that have an indirect impact, etc.

An approximate analysis of the market situation can be carried out by anyone. However, to build an accurate forecast, it is necessary to involve specialists who are fluent in all methods of market research.

Investments

The analysis of the investment market conjuncture is determined by the constant volatility of supply and demand. The cyclicality and volatility of the investment market actualizes the constant monitoring of market conditions: the main trends and the forecast of demand for securities. Any investor must have a complete set of information about the current situation on the market, be able to correctly adapt to the current state of affairs, give a correct forecast of market behavior in order to skillfully exist in the field market economy. Without the ability to determine the degree of development and an active investment market, it is impossible to make correct and competent decisions that will have a clear economic justification. Only such knowledge lays the foundation for a successful investment strategy.

Investor’s shortcomings in assessing the investment market situation can lead to negative consequences, such as a decrease in income, loss of equity and invested capital.

Analysis of the investment market conditions involves the use of methods such as real-time market tracking, data analysis and supply and demand forecasting.

Tracking the situation on the market in real time involves monitoring changes in the system of indicators that characterize supply and demand, current prices and the degree of competitive relationships. Particular attention is paid to those areas of the market where it is planned to build investment activities, or where it is already actively operating. The research results are displayed graphically or provided in any other form capable of providing market agents with predictive data on the behavior of the securities market.

An analysis of the current situation on the securities market involves determining trends in its change, based on the data that were obtained as a result of the study of previous periods. Analysis of the market situation, first of all, begins with the calculation of complex indicators that characterize market behavior, obtained as a result of monitoring. Then the prerequisites for the deformation of the current cycle of market conditions are revealed.

Analysis of the current situation at the time of the study and its subsequent forecasting is an important element in choosing the most important areas of strategy in the field of investment business and forming an investment portfolio. The main goal pursued by the forecast is to determine the pattern of development of factors that in the future form the market situation. The forecast is made on the basis of a time period, based on certain methods and calculations.

Services

Analysis of the conjuncture of the services market is carried out according to the same principle as in the case of the investment market. Any entrepreneur, depending on the results of the study, must make a forecast, according to which he will build his pricing policy.

The forecast can be made for long-term, medium - and short-term periods. Long-term forecasting is associated with the development of a strategic plan for the distribution of its services in the market, which involves global capital investments for the implementation of large projects. A distinctive feature of long-term forecasting is that it is developed for a period of three years or more.

The medium-term forecast is made to correct the main activity of the enterprise. The service provider company determines which services will be subject to strong market fluctuations and which will remain unchanged over the next two to three years.

Short-term forecasting of the service market conjuncture involves the introduction of short-term financial instruments, which will help the company to occupy or at least not lose its niche in the coming year. Such forecasting is the most accurate, flexible, and on its basis the enterprise is able to calmly maneuver in short-term planning.

Spare parts

Analysis of the conjuncture of the auto parts market is similar to the previous ones. In general, regardless of the industry, the analysis of market sectors is carried out by the same methods. The only distinguishing feature is the scope of the study ( legal entities, the general population). An analysis of the market situation of an enterprise that is engaged in the production and sale of auto parts involves the following steps:

monitoring the current situation on automotive market countries and the world;
collection of the necessary data array, which is the basis for further statistical research;
conducting an analysis based on previous years and drawing a parallel with the current situation;
grouping the results;
forecasting.

The study of the conjuncture of commodity markets includes the processing, analysis and systematization of quantitative indicators and qualitative information characterizing the development of the market in a given period of time. The choice of a system of indicators is determined by the objectives of a particular study, for example, analysis of market development, analysis of the market situation over a certain period of time, changes in the technical and economic characteristics of production.

All market-forming factors that stimulate the development of the market or restrain it are classified into:

- permanent
- temporary;
- cyclic;
- non-cyclic.

Permanent factors include state regulation economy, scientific and technological progress, inflation, seasonality in the production and consumption of goods. The factors influencing the conjuncture are periodically called temporary. These are, for example, natural disasters, social conflicts, emergency situation.

In the development of markets, a certain repetitiveness, cyclicity, caused by seasonal changes in supply and demand, may appear. life cycles goods (bringing goods to the market, growth, maturity, decline), shifts in the reproductive structure, fluctuations in investment activity, a change in economic policy.

Factors of a non-cyclical nature determine the specifics of production and the sale of specific goods. The impact of various factors on the process of production and circulation of any product makes it possible to identify links between ongoing events and the causes that caused them. It is the impact of various factors on the process of production and circulation of goods that is reflected in the movement of market conditions.

Under the types of conjuncture is understood price, demand, supply, availability of resources. Price, demand, supply contribute to the establishment of equilibrium in the market.

Demand is the relationship between the price of a good and the quantity that buyers are willing and able to purchase.

The law of demand - the lower the price of a product, the more of it buyers are willing and able to purchase.

Supply and demand factors

1) Change in the volume of demand (supply)
2) Change in the demand (supply) function

Certain conditions under which goods are purchased:

1. disposable income;
2. the prices of goods that serve a similar need of the so-called commodity substitutes;
3. prices of goods that increase satisfaction or benefit from the consumption of this product;
4. condition of expectation of price changes in the future;
5. population;
6. tastes and preferences of consumers.

The dependence of demand on its factors is called the demand function.

Non-price factors affecting the change in demand:

a change in the usefulness of a thing;
change in income (buy more for the same price);
change in the price of substitutes (when prices decrease, demand switches)

Income effect - shows how the real income of the consumer changes when prices change, this income shows due to which decrease in the price of a product a person has become richer.

Substitution effect - demonstrates the relationship between the relative prices of goods and the dependence of consumer demand.

The interaction of the income effect with the substitution effect occurs in a situation with normal goods, those goods for which demand increases with an increase in consumer income.

The income effect and the substitution effect act in opposite directions, on the one hand, a change in prices for low-quality goods will lead to an increase in demand for them (substitution effect), on the other hand, due to the income effect, the consumer will become richer, and a rich person will not purchase low-quality goods . If low-quality goods occupy an insignificant place in the total volume of consumer income, then the substitution effect is greater than the income effect and the consumer buys more inferior goods.

But in economic theory a situation may arise when a decrease in the price of a product leads to a decrease in demand for it and vice versa. This effect is called the Giffen effect. The "Gifen paradox" is that as the price of a commodity rises, low-income individuals increase their purchases, abandoning other types of consumption and reducing their consumption mainly to the consumption of this product.

The Veblen effect refers to a decrease in demand for luxury goods due to falling prices.

Supply is the amount of goods that sellers are willing to offer on the market at each possible price per unit of time.

The volume of supply is the maximum amount of goods that sellers are willing to offer on the market per unit of time, under certain conditions:

1. The price of this product.
2. Prices for initial resources.
3. Prices for other goods
4. Availability of necessary resources.
5. The nature of the applied technology.
6. Inflation expectations.
7. Taxes and subsidies.
8. Natural and climatic conditions.
9. Number of sellers.

Demand can be of the following types

negative demand. The challenge is to examine the source of the resistance, to determine if the marketing program can change negative attitudes by redesigning the product and increasing incentives.

Lack of demand. Consumers may not be interested in the product or indifferent to it. The task is to find ways to link the inherent properties of a product with the natural needs and interests of a person.

hidden demand. Many customers would like to have products that do not exist. The task is to determine the size of the potential market and create effective products and services that can satisfy demand.

Falling demand. Marketers must analyze the reasons for the drop in demand and determine whether it is possible to stimulate sales again by finding new target markets and changes in product characteristics.

irregular demand. Sales may fluctuate depending on the season, day and even time of day. The task is to find ways to smooth out fluctuations in the distribution of demand over time with the help of flexible prices, incentives and other incentives (synchromarketing).

Maintained demand. A case in which a firm is satisfied with its turnover. The task is to maintain the current level of demand despite changing consumer preferences and increasing competition. The company must care about the quality of the product and constantly evaluate the level of customer satisfaction in order to judge the correctness of their actions.

Excessive demand. In some cases, the demand is higher than the firm can or wants to meet. The task is to find ways to temporarily or permanently reduce demand (increase in prices, reduce service).

unwanted demand. Demand for goods harmful to health. The goal is to convince lovers of something to give up their habits by spreading fearsome information, raising prices dramatically, and limiting the availability of the product.

The main objects of market research.

The task of market research is to determine the degree of impact individual factors on the formation of conjuncture at a certain point in time.

It is possible to solve such a problem if we conduct a study of the conjuncture, taking into account new phenomena that arise in the sphere of production. In order to represent the situation taking place in the market, it is not enough to know the changes in prices, stock indices, the movement of stocks and fluctuations in other indicators. The study of market conditions requires knowledge of the patterns of economic development, the interactions of markets in the reproduction process.

There are three levels of market research:

- General economic - shows the state of the world economy or the economy of a particular country, a group of countries, emerging under the influence of market-forming factors, includes the following aspects: the economic potential of the economy and its elements (natural, industrial, labor, financial resources); scientific, educational and infrastructure potential; institutional structure of the economy.
- Industry - shows the position in the industry of the national or world economy.
- Individual product - shows the position of an individual product on a global, national or regional market scale.

Methods for studying the conjuncture of any commodity market, economy or industry are developed on the basis of indicators that can help determine the direction of development of production, trade and finance in the future. In these studies, an assessment is made of the relationship between supply and demand for the required period of time, the study of price fluctuations, the sale of goods and services, inventory, market sustainability assessment. When studying market conditions, it is necessary to consider indicators that can quantify the various changes that occur in the economy of the industry under study.

The quantitative state of the conjuncture can be assessed using the following groups of indicators:

- The volume and dynamics of production as a whole, the size of investments, the level of employment, the size of wages, order data. These are the so-called indicators of the sphere of production.
- Effective demand, the size of the sale of goods on credit, data on retail and wholesale trade. The above refers to indicators of intra-regional trade.
- Volumes, dynamics, geographical distribution interregional relations, import and export volumes, cargo transportation volumes. This group of indicators belongs to the group of interregional and foreign economic relations.
- Credit and monetary circulation. This group of estimates includes stock prices and other securities, interest rates, bank deposits, exchange rates.

The main characteristic of market conditions is the degree of balance between supply and demand. It manifests itself in the behavior of prices, the speed of turnover of goods. This assessment allows you to determine the type of conjuncture. The types of conjuncture are distinguished into favorable or unfavorable.

With a favorable market situation, a balance of supply and demand is achieved, prices are kept at a stable level.

In an unfavorable market situation, demand lags behind supply, which leads to an increase in inventories, a slowdown in the turnover of goods, and there are difficulties in the sale of goods.

The success of market research depends on the speed of obtaining objective and complete information about the causes, nature and size of fluctuations in the correspondence of supply and demand in various markets.

The main requirements for information are efficiency and reliability. Information consists of three stages:

- determination of the range of indicators;
- development of a scheme for transmitting information in time and space;
- volume and form of presentation of information.

When studying market conditions, systematic observations are made of all economic indicators, the change of which shows shifts in the ratio of supply and demand, and also allows you to analyze the reasons for these changes. After processing the information, an analytical document is drawn up, which is called a business review.

The conjuncture is a set of features and indicators that characterize the current state of the economy.

The study of market conditions involves the analysis of the situation on the market and its forecasting. The end result of such a study is to obtain answers to the following questions: at what point and at what prices should a product be sold or bought.

To study the market situation and prepare forecasts for its development, it is necessary first of all to find out what phase of its cycle the country's economy is in. Then give a comprehensive description of the economy for the previous year, identify and analyze all the factors influencing the market situation, and make a reasonable market forecast.

Identify strategic and operational goals market analysis and market forecasting.

The strategic goals of market analysis require the identification and modeling of the patterns of the market mechanism. This makes it possible to predict the development of the market and justify the use of economic regulatory mechanisms.

The operational goals of the market analysis of the current situation are focused on meeting the needs of marketing and management.

To achieve strategic and operational goals, the main tasks of market analysis are:

1) assessment of the state of the market;
2) characteristics of the scale (capacity) of the market;
3) assessment and analysis of the main proportions (shares) of the market;
4) analysis and forecasting of market development trends;
5) analysis of seasonality and cyclical development of the market;
6) evaluation regional features and differences;
7) business activity analysis;
8) assessment of commercial (market) risk;
9) characteristics of the degree of monopolization of the market and the intensity of competition.

The solution of these problems of market analysis is complex and requires serious research, which uses a systematic and integrated approach.

A systematic approach to market research involves a multi-level (hierarchical) description of an object. As a rule, the study of an object is carried out at least at three levels:

the first level involves the study of the object (the market of the country) as a whole, as well as the generalized indicators characterizing it;
the second level involves the study of the structure of the object (a separate commodity market) and the indicators characterizing it, as well as the system of links between the individual elements of the object;
the third level of market research of the object involves a description of the state of individual elements of the commodity market.

Comprehensive approach to research economic situation involves consideration of the object of study on the basis of complex analysis interaction of factors of internal and external environment. So, when studying the conjuncture of the commodity market, this means that the object must be studied in conjunction with the general economic conjuncture, with the conjuncture of consuming industries, as well as with the conjuncture of related and complementary industries.

The study of the economic situation is not only a determination of its current state, but also a forecast of directions and trends in the development of the market. This is necessary for the organization to develop decisions in the field of marketing of goods and services, as well as for planning scientific, technical and production activities.

Market research involves:

analysis of pricing and sales;
determination of market potential and market share;
development of short-term and long-term forecast.

Market research is a purposeful collection and processing of information about the state of the commodity market, analysis of the features of its functioning, forecasting of the main parameters and trends in the development of the market in order to make effective marketing decisions. This study is the basis for making effective management decision by any kind economic activity organizations. Specific goals and tasks in the field of production and sales of products in the domestic and foreign markets should dictate the direction, scope and depth of ongoing market research.

The purpose of market research can be: to determine the market capacity, the dynamics and level of the price of goods, the volume of sales of goods, exports or imports, and so on.

The objects of market research are:

general business environment. The study of this conjuncture involves a detailed examination of the macroeconomic processes and trends taking place in the national economy of a single country or the world economy as a whole;
commodity market conditions. This study includes an analysis and forecast of the state of the market for a particular product and involves the study of the industries of production and consumption of the products in question, their relationships, as well as the infrastructure support of the market under study.

Analysis of the general economic situation or the situation of a particular commodity market, depending on the objectives of the study, can be carried out in two ways:

if the task is to find out the trends in the development of market conditions for a certain period, then the analysis is carried out by studying its dynamics over this period;
if the task is to determine the market situation for the current date, then the analysis is carried out taking into account the phase of the economic cycle in this period.

A feature of market research is that the researcher always deals only with specific indicators (figures) that characterize the state of the research object. The analysis of these indicators should provide answers to the questions posed. Therefore, before embarking on the research process, it is necessary to draw up a list of questions and indicators necessary for a correct assessment of the object.

Conjuncture(from lat. conjungo - connect, connect) - a specific situation that has developed in the market in this moment time, as well as a set of conditions that determine this situation.

In the economic literature, the following main types of conjuncture are distinguished:

a) general business - it is a set of product markets in close interaction. But this is not an arithmetic addition of commodity markets, but the division of a single complex into parts in their systemic interdependence;
b) commodity market conditions this is an element of the general economic situation, these are the relationships that arise in the market for certain goods and services and have both specific and common features.

The general economic and commodity conjuncture have the following characteristic features:

impermanence, because some factors have a short period of influence, while others, on the contrary, have a long one;

unevenness, those. dynamics, may coincide when considering specific economic indicators, but the pace is not;

extreme inconsistency, those. the same indicators at the same time can indicate the presence of opposite trends - rise and fall.

The study of the market situation consists of two main blocks: the study of the general economic situation and the study of the situation of a specific product market. The process consists of the following successive stages:

collection of information and analysis of market conditions;

development of own forecast of the conjuncture for the next planning period;

assessment of the effectiveness of using the results of the market forecast.

The study of the general economic situation involves tracking and detailed consideration of the processes, changes taking place in the national economy of a single country, the economic community or the world economy as a whole, and provides for an analysis of the main macroeconomic proportions and trends of all industries represented within the selected research object (Fig. 30 ).

The study of the conjuncture of the commodity market includes: analysis and forecast of the state of the market for a particular product; involves the study of industries of production and consumption, the products in question; their interconnections, as well as infrastructural support of the studied market.

Analysis of the general economic situation or the situation of a particular commodity market can be carried out in two ways, depending on the objectives of the study.

if the task is to determine the situation on the current date, then the state of the situation is analyzed by determining the phase of the economic cycle and the approximate place within the phase;

if the task is to clarify the trends and rates of development of the conjuncture for a certain period, then the analysis of the conjuncture is carried out by studying its dynamics over this period.

Effective work on the study of market conditions is possible only if the principles of purposefulness, complexity, and systematicity are observed.

Purposefulness means that the study of market conditions and trends in its development should be closely linked to the planned tasks facing the enterprise.

An integrated approach means:

the need to analyze all elements of a particular market;

the obligation to study it in conjunction with general economic phenomena and markets for related products;

coverage of the entire main group of internal factors (in relation to this market) nature that affects it.

The systematic nature of observations and analysis implies the correlation of certain requirements for research activities.

It is necessary to determine the period of time (quarter, half year, year) for which the conjuncture and consumer requests will be analyzed. Not only the list of indicators depends on this, but also the degree of detail of data on them.

It is also necessary to determine the level of specification of the analysis and forecast that is planned to be carried out. On the basis of such preliminary work the scope and nature of the materials required for analysis are specified.

The process of analyzing market conditions and studying consumer requirements consists of the following steps:

From the totality of factors and indicators, constituent elements, individual estimates, and statistical indicators are distinguished.

Dynamic series are built for each indicator, which makes it possible to reflect the actions of the corresponding factor in the past, present and future based on available estimates and forecasts.

The significance and degree of influence of the main conjuncture-forming factors are determined. This work is carried out using time series, taking into account the measurement of the influence of each of the factors on the conjuncture in the past.

The final stage is the consideration of all factors in their interaction as a whole. In this case, firstly, the result of the impact is determined (hence, the behavior of the conjuncture), and secondly, the place and role of each of the analyzed factors in the formation of the conjuncture are revealed.

The ultimate task of conjuncture research is to create a picture of the probable future: to determine the opportunities that should be used, the potential dangers that should be avoided.

An important step in market analysis is the characterization of market development dynamics. The greater the range of fluctuations, the higher the level of risk, the less reliable forecasts. Market volatility is manifested in deviations of actual levels from the trend line, which expresses the development trend.

Depending on the results obtained, a generalization of the assessment of the development and state of the market is given:

strong (developing) market;

a sustainable market;

unstable developing market;

stable market (with high trading activity);

stagnant market (with low trading activity);

decline in market activity;

market contraction.

22 Market capacity analysis

The market capacity is determined by the volume of goods sold on it, usually during the year (in physical units or in value terms), i.e. in the end - the volume of consumption of goods.

Potential capacity represents the maximum possible volume of sales in a market situation, when all potential consumers purchase a product based on the maximum possible level of its consumption. Potential capacity is an unattainable value, if only because not all potential consumers purchase products, and those who purchase them have real limitations.

Real capacity (hereinafter - capacity) is estimated as an achievable actual or forecast sales volume of the analyzed product.

The measurement procedure requires significant amount statistical and analytical information.

For example:

When determining the capacity of the national market, in addition to data on the volume of production, exports, imports, one should take into account the size of carryovers. This is especially important for the markets of agricultural raw materials and goods.

When determining the market capacity of individual consumer goods, it is necessary to analyze the factors of effective demand for the category of goods of interest. In addition, it is necessary to take into account the indicator of market saturation with this product. This is especially true for markets for durable consumer goods (cars, bicycles and other vehicles, refrigerators, washing machines TVs, VCRs, etc.).

For a correct calculation of the market capacity, it is important to fix the product, temporal and spatial characteristics of the market under study. You need to define exactly:

a) the characteristics of the analyzed product, in order to unambiguously highlight the necessary heading(for example, middle-class passenger cars with a European-made diesel engine);
b) the calendar time period for which the capacity is estimated (usually a calendar or fiscal year, less often a quarter);
c) the geographical boundaries of the market being assessed.

In studies commissioned by industrial and trading companies currently use the following, basic, methods for calculating the market capacity.

Determining the market capacity based on its structural characteristics. This approach requires relatively little financial outlay and can be implemented in the course of desk research. The following are taken into account: the total volume of production (P R ) , the value of exports of products by the state and non-state commodity organizations (E G , E ng ) , state and non-state imports (Them G , Them ng ) , data on product balances at the beginning and end of the analyzed period in warehouses trade organizations (O t n , O t to ) , as well as the change in government stocks over the same period (Z G n , W G to ) . Based on the above data, the total market capacity (E) will be equal to:

E = P R - (E G + E ng ) + (im G + Im ng ) + (O t n - O t to ) + (Z G n - Z G to ).

Determination of market capacity based on the research panel index. The following data is required: total retail stores selling analyzed products (TO common ) ; number of retail stores included in the panel (TO P ); period for which panel data is collected (t, months); leftovers

products in the warehouses of each store at the beginning and end of the study period (O i n , O i to ) and sales volume for the same period (P i ). The calculation formula is as follows:

where i = 1,…, K P.

If we designate the panel index as And P , then the formula will take a simpler form:

According to a similar scheme, the market capacity is calculated based on the data of the consumer panel. Values E, obtained using the panels of sellers and consumers must match (the volume of sales equals the volume of purchases).

Determination of the organization's position in the market and evaluation economic efficiency its functioning is impossible without the calculation of predictive estimates of sales volume (capacity) of products. Forecasting the market capacity consists in substantiating, using various methods, the total volumes of consumption of a particular group of goods (services) in certain period time.

The heuristic approach based on the involvement of experts is widely used in the practice of forecasting the possible market capacity. The specificity of market capacity forecasting as a macroeconomic phenomenon is due to the need for an organization planning its activities in the market to have sufficient information, primarily about the state policy guidelines for regulating the economy and its consequences for the general socio-economic situation. The lack of this information significantly complicates the use of this approach at the level individual enterprises. In such conditions, characterized by external and internal limitations, the use of expert opinions is the most acceptable and allows you to make a forecast of the market capacity.

Experts can be enterprise specialists, industry consultants or specialized organizations with their experience in analyzing and forecasting market conditions, as well as product consumers who determine the demand for specific goods and services.

The basis for forecasting market capacity within the framework of the economic-mathematical approach is to identify stable trends in the change in the aggregate market demand for a certain group of goods or services in past periods of time, assuming the inertial nature of the development of market processes, in transferring the identified dependencies and patterns to the future.

The simplest method for assessing the market capacity in the economic-mathematical approach is the formation of trend models.

The resulting trend models provide the possibility of extrapolating the identified dependencies to the planned time points in order to obtain predictive estimates of the market capacity.

If there is a sufficient volume of statistical information, a correlation-regression analysis is carried out by the series of values of the market capacity and an independent macroeconomic parameter.

Send your good work in the knowledge base is simple. Use the form below

Students, graduate students, young scientists who use the knowledge base in their studies and work will be very grateful to you.