The Norwegians announced the discovery of large reserves of oil and gas, which ended up at the bottom of the Barents section transferred by Russia aseas. Norwegians rub their hands with joy, while the Russian media draw analogies with previously occupied Russian territories, on which serious resources were later discovered. But in fact, not everything is so clear...
After the 2010 agreement with Norway, something very good happened. The country is very similar to Russia in terms of the level of dependence of well-being on the volume of oil and gas exports. However, the long-exploited fields of the North Sea were already depleted, and Norway was slowly and surely rolling into a bleak and poor future.
“The results presented today prove that the southeast of the Barents Sea is the most interesting of the new areas on the Norwegian continental shelf,” says Geir Selleset, communications manager at the Norwegian Petroleum Association, gleefully in an interview with BarentsObserver.
These reserves help Norway a lot. The volume of oil production in the country has been declining for a number of years. The peak of oil production in Norway was passed in 2000, when it was 3.12 million barrels per day. By 2007, the daily level of oil production on the Norwegian continental shelf had dropped to the lowest level since 1994 of 2.6 million barrels. At the end of 2012, it amounted to less than half of this level - 1.53 million barrels per day. The gas situation is slightly better. Production rose 12 percent last year to 1.94 million barrels of oil equivalent. But now the Norwegians have a lot of plans.
After two years of seismic sounding of the obtained territory, the Norwegians found that recoverable hydrocarbon reserves of about 1.9 billion barrels of oil equivalent are a good increase, given that oil reserves in Norway are estimated at 8.5 billion barrels. The world's third largest oil exporter after Russia and Saudi Arabia has only 0.7 percent of the world's reserves (18th in the world). Gas reserves in the country are estimated at 2.5 billion cubic meters. m (1.2 percent of world reserves, 13th place).
Background
The main agreements regarding the status of these areas of the sea, one way or another, include consideration of the issue around the Svalbard archipelago. Under the agreement of 1872, the right to Svalbard was assigned simultaneously to Russia and Sweden, which at that time included Norway. But during the Civil War in Russia, in February 1920, eight states (USA, Denmark, France, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Great Britain and Sweden), without taking into account the opinion of Russia, which these countries successfully plundered, transferred sovereignty over Svalbard to Norway.
The gift was chic ... but with a catch. Norway received the right to land only. The sea around Svalbard and the continental shelf remained a free zone.
Moreover, according to the agreement, favorable conditions were laid down for foreign TNCs in the event that sometime something in this area will be developed: the export duty on Svalbard should not be higher than one percent of the maximum value of exported minerals within 100 thousand tons. And if the volume of export is even greater, then a reduction factor should work. In general, Norway itself did not get anything from such a gift.
In the 30s, the USSR joined the agreement of 1920 with the right to conduct economic activity on the island. Although he considered the act of 20 years discriminatory for himself. In 1926, Moscow determined the boundaries of maritime possessions in this area, using the principle of sector division. The end points were the North Pole and the extreme point of the land border, between which a straight line was drawn dividing the water area. At the same time, the Norwegians used the delimitation along the median line between the island possessions of the two countries. The result was a disputed area of about 155,000 square kilometers. A piece larger than all Norwegian maritime possessions in the North Sea.
Despite the fact that the 1920 Agreement does not allow Norway to consider the waters around the archipelago as its own, Oslo demonstrates by all means and local national acts that this is its own territory. Thus, Norway practically denounces the 1920 treaty. Some of the provisions signed by Russia in 2010 are also highly ambiguous. For example, in Article 2, the Russian side waives "any sovereign rights or jurisdiction" of the Russian Federation on the other side of the demarcation line, where Svalbard is located.
The legal case is that, wanting more and refusing the 1920 agreement, Norway also renounces sovereignty over Svalbard, since this is the only agreement under which Oslo can count on its full jurisdiction over the island. Thus, the situation rolls back to the agreement of 1872, when the status of Svalbard was determined by only two states - Russia and Sweden-Norway. Although Moscow has not publicly presented arguments of this kind yet, the implementation of the Strategy for the Russian presence in the Svalbard archipelago until 2020 will be indicative.
shared the shelf
Contrary to the bright, and therefore commonplace association with the famous hero of one of the favorite folk comedies, the deal to transfer the water territory to the Norwegians does not resemble the transfer of the Kem Volost, by the way, to the same Swedes ... Both countries initially shared the shelf and underground wealth. And Moscow knew that there were hydrocarbon reserves in the area. The Soviet seismic service regularly reported on the available reserves, although there were no exact data. However, the territory was not demarcated and neither side could calmly develop mining in this sector.
It is no coincidence that a large part of the agreement is devoted to hydrocarbons and describes in particular detail how the parties will jointly use the fields that are located on both sides of the demarcation line. Such close attention suggests that the conditional demarcation lines were laid taking into account the deliberate division of the existing fields into the Russian and Norwegian sectors in order to then organize joint production, which is devoted to most of the agreement.
The agreement between the parties explicitly spells out the principle according to which the field, crossed by the line of demarcation, can only be exploited jointly and as a whole. Such an approach will make it possible to remove possible disagreements on the issue of distribution of hydrocarbon resources in advance and effectively. The exploitation of any hydrocarbon deposit that extends to the continental shelf of the other party can only be started in accordance with the provisions of the Unification Agreement, the agreement states.
What kind of unification agreement this is, one can only guess. Actually, the voluminous appendix number two to the signed agreement is precisely the very part for which everything was started. Russia started the Arctic race in 2007 when a flag was planted at the bottom of the North Pole. This prompted a number of countries with access to the Arctic to be active and interested in the Arctic lands, where inaccessible and, it seems, gigantic hydrocarbon deposits are hidden.
Among them was Norway, with which Russia had a long-standing territorial dispute. In 2010, Russia ceded part of the disputed territory in the Barents Sea to Norway, receiving in return the absence of obstacles from the Norwegians in conducting the Nord Stream and removing the territorial dispute from the agenda.
In 2012, the largest oil companies in both countries, with a predominant share of state participation, signed agreements on joint work. In May 2012, Rosneft and the companies agreed to work together offshore in the Barents and Okhotsk Seas, both Russian territory, and on the Norwegian shelf. The level of Russian participation in production on the territory transferred to the Norwegians will be the most accurate indicator of the effectiveness of this agreement for the Russian side. In this case, the agreement between the Russian Federation and Norway will resemble an agreement between neighbors to share the available reserves for two.
And what are the main characters agreements of 1920? After all, they are unlikely to be happy with how Oslo and Moscow pushed them aside with their own bilateral agreement. It turns out that they are already in business and seem to agree to the proposed terms and the quiet cancellation of the 1920 agreement.
Rosneft's offshore partners are Exxon Mobil (USA), ENI (Italy) and the same Norwegian Statoil, which also works with Exxon Mobil. In return, foreign partners pay for exploration and provide Rosneft with the opportunity to buy a stake in their foreign projects. As for the British, in the fall of 2012, Rosneft and BP agreed to buy out the latter's stake in TNK-BP. In addition, the British company will receive two out of nine seats on Rosneft's board of directors.
Oslo about oil, Moscow about Svalbard
Some synchronicity in the actions of the governments of the two countries suggests that the parties are still moving within the framework of a single plan. On February 27, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate presented optimistic data on oil and gas reserves in new territories, mentioning, by the way, that in early March, Deputy Prime Minister Dvorkovich held a meeting of the government commission to ensure the Russian presence in the Svalbard archipelago. Russia plans to create a multifunctional scientific center on the island and extract minerals, as planned by the Strategy of the Russian Presence on the Svalbard Archipelago until 2020.
The Ministry of Transport, Rosmorrechflot, Rostourism and the state trust Arktikugol were instructed to prepare a development report by April 2013 transport system and ensuring safe navigation in the Svalbard area.
The past 2017 was not an easy year for the Russian oil industry. Production growth has generally stalled due to falling global prices, sanctions and cuts under the OPEC+ deal. However, this trend did not affect offshore projects, where production volumes increased by more than 1.5 times last year. In addition, as a result of geological exploration, the most large reserves on the territory of Russia last year were found exactly on the shelf. Experts attribute this to the emergence of Russian technologies for the implementation of offshore projects and predict further growth in production in the Russian waters.
growth acceleration
Oil production on the Russian shelf in 2017 grew much more than previously planned. Back in September last year, Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation Kirill Molodtsov told reporters that the ministry expects an increase in oil production on the Russian shelf in 2017 compared to 2016 by 16.6%, to 26 million tons, gas - by 3.3% , up to 34 billion m3. However, already in mid-December, the Ministry of Energy corrected its forecasts and announced that oil production on the Russian shelf in 2017 would grow by 61%, to 36 million tons.
The Ministry of Energy notes that the situation was positively affected by the use of new technologies in the field of oil and gas production, including in offshore projects. “Of the total number of technologies, and there are approximately 600 of them, more than 300 are produced in Russia. More than 200 have Russian developments and analogues, that is, they practically have a project development stage,” said Kirill Molodtsov, making a presentation at the Tyumen oil and gas conference in the fall. “There are technologies that we are very excited about, and we will develop them further. These are absolutely autonomous production systems, the completion of offshore fields, drilling, the possibility of creating and developing projects in the Arctic,” the Deputy Minister noted. Kirill Molodtsov also pointed out that the sanctions imposed against Russia in 2014 did not have such a strong negative impact on offshore production as expected.
“Some of the events that took place around 2014 should have had a negative impact, but I would like to emphasize that all companies that work on the shelf both on projects that have been launched and on projects that are currently being considered have not actually changed their plans ", - explained Kirill Molodtsov. He also added that the companies continue to direct funds for the development of offshore projects. Thus, the total volume of investments last year only in the Arctic shelf is estimated at 150 billion rubles.
New discoveries
It is worth noting that our subsoil users not only developed existing projects, but also carried out geological exploration, as a result of which major discoveries were made. One of the largest discoveries belongs to Rosneft, which discovered large oil reserves as a result of drilling the Tsentralno-Olginskaya-1 well in the Khatanga license area in the Khatanga Bay of the Laptev Sea.
In June last year, the company announced that as a result of geological exploration on the shelf in the Eastern Arctic, it had drilled the Tsentralno-Olginskaya-1 well, from which core sampling showed high oil saturation. According to seismic surveys, this area may contain colossal oil reserves, which are estimated at 9.5 billion tons. Already in October, based on the results of drilling just one of these wells, the State Reserves Commission (GKZ) put an oil field with recoverable reserves of 80 .4 million tons
As stated in the message of Rosneft, as a result of drilling the Tsentralno-Olginskaya-1 exploration well from the coast of the Khara-Tumus peninsula on the shelf of the Khatanga Bay of the Laptev Sea (Eastern Arctic), it was found that the resulting core was saturated with oil with a predominance of light oily fractions. Based on primary studies, it can be concluded that a new oil field has been discovered, the volume of the resource potential of which increases as drilling continues.
The field discovered by Rosneft in the Eastern Arctic may be the largest and unique on the shelf, said the head of the Ministry natural resources and ecology of Russia Sergey Donskoy. Another major offshore discovery belongs to Gazprom Neft, which discovered oil reserves in the Sea of Okhotsk, 55 km from the coastline of the northeastern part of the shelf of Sakhalin Island.
The Ayashskoye field, later renamed Neptun, is part of the Sakhalin-3 project. Gazprom Neft expects that out of geological oil reserves of 250 million tons, the volume of recoverable reserves will be 70-80 million tons. As stated in the Gazprom Neft corporate magazine, the company plans to prepare a detailed reserve assessment by mid-2018. Based on these data, a decision will be made on the additional exploration of Neptune in 2019. The company plans to start oil production at the field in 2025-2026.
Sakhalin break
Sakhalin break Most of the oil on the Russian shelf is produced in the Sakhalin area. Last year, according to the regional administration, oil production in the region, including gas condensate, amounted to 17.7 million tons, which is 1.9% less than in 2016. Meanwhile, gas production increased by 3.2% to 30.5 bcm.
Almost the entire volume of hydrocarbons in Sakhalin is produced within the framework of two offshore projects - Sakhalin-1 (Rosneft owns 20%) and Sakhalin-2 (a controlling stake in Gazprom),
There have been disagreements between the shareholders of these two projects for many years over the use of gas from the Sakhalin-1 fields. The operator of this project in Russia, Exxon Neftegas, has been trying for several years to negotiate with Gazprom on the supply of gas produced under the project to the markets of the Asia-Pacific region. However, Gazprom has always insisted on the supply of raw materials to the domestic market, which did not suit the shareholders of the Sakhalin-1 project due to the low price of domestic market. As a result, gas from the project was pumped back into the reservoirs, and Exxon Neftegas during this time, according to experts, received a loss of profit in the amount of $5 billion.
In turn, the expansion of the LNG plant under the Sakhalin-2 project through the construction of the third stage was postponed year after year due to the lack of a resource base.
At the end of last year, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said in an interview with the Kommersant newspaper that the differences had been resolved. The parties agreed that gas from the Sakhalin-1 project will be supplied to the third stage of the Sakhalin-2 LNG project, while Gazprom will supply gas to the Eastern Petrochemical Company (VNKhK) of Rosneft. In early February of this year, Glavgosexpertiza of Russia announced that it had issued a positive opinion on design documentation for the reconstruction of the LNG plant as part of the Sakhalin-2 project. Reconstruction is necessary for the construction of the third production line factory. A positive conclusion was issued for the construction of a second berthing facility for LNG shipment with a capacity of 10,000 m3/hour.
The expansion of the technological part is necessary to optimize gas loading. Work will also be carried out on the construction of a coastal fortification, an approach overpass, an LNG offloading platform and other infrastructure facilities.
It remains to be hoped that the price issue, which for many years has been a stumbling block in disagreements between the shareholders of the two largest offshore projects, this time will be resolved quickly and this matter will finally be put to rest.
Good luck for LUKOIL
The right to develop the Russian shelf in 2008 is secured by law for state-owned companies with five years of experience in offshore fields. Only Gazprom, Rosneft and Gazprom Neft meet this criterion.
LUKOIL is the only private company operating on the Russian shelf. The fact is that the company received the right to develop offshore fields in the Caspian even before the tightening of legislation on the conditions of work on the shelf. In 2000, the company discovered a large oil and gas province on the shelf of the Caspian Sea. Now 6 large deposits and 10 promising structures have been discovered there.
At this stage, two fields have been put into operation - them. Yu. Korchagin and them. V. Filanovsky. The latter is one of the largest offshore oil fields Russia with recoverable oil reserves of 129 million tons and gas of 30 billion m3.
Industrial production at the field. Filanovsky began in October 2016 as a result of the commissioning of the first stage of development, including, among other things, an ice-resistant fixed platform (LSP). In January 2018, the company announced that it had completed the construction and put into operation the first well as part of the second stage of the development of the field named after. Filanovsky. As a result of the well commissioning, daily oil production at the field increased to 16.8 thousand tons.
President of LUKOIL Vagit Alekperov told reporters that at the field. Filanovsky, it is planned to produce 5.6-5.8 million tons of oil this year, and already in 2019 the company intends to reach the design oil production of 6 million tons and keep it for 5 years. He also said that this year the company plans to complete the construction of a conductor block for the second stage of the Yu. Korchagin and complete the construction of the third stage of the field named after. Filanovsky.
In addition, Vagit Alekperov said that a tender has already been announced for the development of the Rakushechnoye field, which will be the company's next project in the North Caspian. This field is located in close proximity to the field named after. Filanovsky. Thanks to this, the company plans to use the already built infrastructure, which will reduce the time and cost of field development.
The head of LUKOIL is one of the consistent supporters of allowing private companies to develop offshore projects, including those on the Russian continental shelf. In early February, during a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Vagit Alekperov called the Caspian project a priority and strategically important for the company. He also reminded the Russian president that LUKOIL is developing the East Taimyr subsoil area located near the mouth of the Khatanga, and once again noted the company's interest in offshore projects.
The only one on the Arctic shelf
Prirazlomnoye is the first and so far the only operating mining project on the Russian Arctic shelf. ARCO oil production, operated by Gazprom Neft from the Prirazlomnaya platform of the same name, grew at an accelerated pace during 2017 and reached 2.6 million tons. Gazprom Neft managed to maintain growth rates despite the technical re-equipment of the Prirazlomnoye field the company held last fall.
According to the press service of Gazprom Neft, in 2017 a landmark event for the project was the increase in the well stock by 1 injection and 4 production wells. Currently, 13 wells have been put into operation at the Prirazlomnoye field: 8 production, 4 injection and 1 absorption wells. In 2018, it is planned to drill several more production and injection wells.
In total, it is planned to build 32 wells within the framework of the Prirazlomnoye project, which will ensure peak annual production of about 5 million tons of oil after 2020. This year, Gazprom Neft expects to produce more than 3 million tons at the field, said Deputy CEO for the development of offshore projects of Gazprom Neft Andrey Patrushev during his speech at the 13th exhibition and conference
RAO/CIS Offshore. “The planned increase in production volumes implies, among other things, the introduction of new well construction technologies. One of the key innovations in the Prirazlomnoye project was the commissioning of a multilateral well, the construction technology of which makes it possible to reduce production work and drilling costs. Thus, not only the production, but also the financial efficiency of the project is increased, ”Andrey Patrushev is quoted on the Gazprom Neft Shelf website as saying.
Recall that the industrial development of the field began in December 2013. A new grade of oil - ARCO first entered the world market in April 2014.
In total, more than 10 million barrels of oil have already been shipped to European consumers since the start of field development. Accumulated production at the end of 2017 amounted to about 6 million tons. According to Alexander Dyukov, Chairman of the Management Board of Gazprom Neft, the company plans to produce 4.5 million tons of oil per year at Prirazlomnoye in 2019.
It is worth noting that Gazprom Neft expects to increase oil reserves in this region through geological exploration in the adjacent areas to Prirazlomnoye. As Alexander Novak said earlier, the prospect of production at the Prirazlomnoye field is 6.5 million tons per year.
According to experts, this is a very real task. As Gazprom Neft reported on February 20, in 2017, for the first time, an assessment was made of the promising resources of the Arctic shelf in the company's licensed areas. According to DeGolyer and MacNaughton, the volumes of promising resources of the Arctic shelf amounted to: oil - 1.6 billion tons, gas - 3 trillion m3.
Multidirectional vector
About the prospects for the development of offshore projects, especially in the Arctic, experts and officials talk a lot and willingly. Opinions are unanimous only that the shelf is the strategic potential of the country. In all other respects, this topic causes heated discussions among market participants. Among the most discussed issues: should private companies be allowed to participate in the development, should the moratorium on the issuance of new licenses be lifted, what benefits should be provided, how to bypass sanctions, where to get equipment and what technologies to use.
At the same time, many experts agree that now is really not the best period in the world and domestic economy for revitalizing offshore activities. Thus, Russian Minister of Energy Alexander Novak notes that the activity of interest in the shelves, observed before 2014, is now much lower, and connects this with a decrease in world prices for hydrocarbons. Commenting on plans for the development of the Arctic shelf in an interview with RT, the minister recalled that we currently have about 19 discovered fields there. “This suggests that in the future, with the improvement of the market situation, we, of course, are considering more active exploration, drilling, and commissioning of fields as part of our energy development strategy,” the minister said and once again stressed that the Arctic is the future of our oil production and gas production.
According to Academician Alexei Kontorovich, active exploration of the Russian Arctic waters will take place in 2030-2040. As he explained in an interview with Reuters, Russia will be able to maintain current oil production with the available proven reserves until the middle of the 21st century.
Further, new discoveries are needed on the shelf of the Arctic, which has rich hydrocarbon reserves. Thus, according to the expert, the main task remains the development of appropriate technologies by this time.
Orest Kasparov, deputy head of Rosnedra, believes that for the economically viable development of the Arctic shelf, the cost of oil should exceed $80 per barrel. In his opinion, it is precisely because of low oil prices, and not because of sanctions, that Russian companies are postponing the development of some offshore projects.
Prospects for the exploration and production of hydrocarbons on the world and Russian shelves in policy brief"LUKOIL" "The main trends in the development of global oil and gas markets until 2025".
Vladimir Akramovsky
© "LUKOIL"
It has long become a tradition for a number of world oil majors to periodically make public own research and forecasts for the development of the oil and gas industry. This year for the first time Russian company LUKOIL also presented to the general public its own assessment of global trends in the development of oil and gas markets. A team of analysts from one of the Russian leaders regularly conducts research in this area. Previously, such a review was prepared solely for the purpose of updating the development strategy and forming the investment program of LUKOIL. Today, according to the company's analysts, the entire Russian oil and gas industry also objectively needs to update the development strategy. In a published overview of global trends Special attention is given to the analysis of the pressing problems of the oil and gas industry in Russia. Among the main "challenges" for the country is a natural decline in production at old fields in the coming years, which can be fully compensated by a set of measures, mainly related to the large-scale use of new technologies. For Russia in the current conditions, one of the key "resources of growth" is the activation of exploration and production of hydrocarbons on the shelf, which require the use of unique knowledge and technologies.
FOCUS ON THE DEEP SEA SHELF
Global trends are such that as traditional onshore oil reserves are depleted, shelf resources are playing an increasingly prominent role in meeting growing consumption. And if the discovery of new giant deposits is no longer expected on land, then the prospects for the shelf in this regard are very promising. According to scientists, only proven world oil reserves on the shelf amount to 280 billion barrels. In recent years, most onshore discoveries have been in small and medium-sized deposits. "Over the past 20 years, the number of major discoveries on the shelf has exceeded the number of major discoveries on land, and offshore production reaches almost 30% of the world's total," Lukoil's analytical review emphasizes.
“With the development of technology, the depth of developed offshore fields is also increasing. Modern technologies allows drilling even at depths exceeding 3000 m. About 27% of offshore production is now in deep water, and this share will continue to grow,” the report says. The accident at the Deepwater Horizon platform in the Gulf of Mexico forced many companies to rethink their approaches to ensuring safety offshore drilling.As a result, additional measures to prevent contingencies naturally lead to an increase in the cost of offshore hydrocarbon production.High tax burden in certain countries, such as Angola and Nigeria, also contributes to an increase in the cost of deepwater development.
The implementation of complex offshore projects involves huge financial costs. However, high oil prices will encourage such investments. According to LUKOIL analysts, the price of oil for profitable development of deep-water reserves should be from 50 to 90 dollars, depending on the depth and region of production.
Taking into account global trends - population growth and motorization in Asia, the depletion of the traditional base of hydrocarbon resources, a moderate growth rate of oil production in North America and Iraq, the planned high budget expenditures of the OPEC countries and, as a result, the latter limits production volumes to maintain prices at not less than $100 per barrel - a significant decline in oil prices in the medium term is unlikely.
The last decade has been characterized by an unprecedented rise in exploration and production costs worldwide. According to LUKOIL's estimates, since the beginning of the 2000s, companies' expenses for exploration, development and production have more than tripled. Growing demand for hydrocarbons is forcing companies to develop ever more costly unconventional reserves. In particular, to conduct production on the deep-sea shelf. Currently, the cost of profitable production per day is about 15 million barrels - more than $70 per barrel.
"The largest increase in production will come from the deep water shelf, low-permeability reservoirs in the United States, heavy oil from Canada and Venezuela," the review emphasizes.
As for the increase in gas production, here, along with progress in the development of shale resources, new regions of traditional gas production will play a big role by the beginning of the next decade. In particular, in Europe, "the shelf of the Eastern Mediterranean by the beginning of the next decade may become a new global source of LNG. The total recoverable resources of the Mediterranean shelf of Israel, Cyprus, Lebanon and Egypt, according to various estimates, amount to several trillion cubic meters of gas."
A significant increase in oil production, as noted in a study by LUKOIL, is expected after 2015, when new large fields will be put into operation.
CHALLENGES FOR RUSSIA
According to the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, Russia's geological oil reserves amount to 74.3 billion tons, and resources - 157.1 billion tons. However, summarized in the review of "LUKOIL", modern technical capabilities significantly limit the powerful resource potential of the country. Thus, recoverable reserves on the territory of the Russian Federation are estimated at 22 billion tons. The assessment of reserves according to the international classification, which takes into account the economics of field development projects, is approximately two times lower than according to the Russian one. The initiation by the state of additional economic incentives for the development of fields that are currently unprofitable will help build up reserves according to the international classification.
At most Russian fields, there is a natural decline in production due to the depletion of reserves. Most of the Russian oil production is carried out in the fields of Western Siberia, where the first major discoveries were made back in the 1960s. "...90% of oil in the Russian Federation is produced from fields discovered before 1988, and only 10% from fields discovered in the 1990s and 2000s," the review notes. In the 2000s, the rate of decline in production from the carry-over well stock increased significantly, reaching an annual level of 11%. Active exploration and production intensification since 2009 allowed the rate of decline to stabilize, however, these rates are still high.
A certain positive dynamics of production, achieved in 2010, was largely the result of the commissioning of new fields. The largest increase in production came from large onshore fields in Eastern Siberia - Vankorskoye, Talakanskoye and Verkhnechonskoye. In order to fully overcome the natural decline in production, it is necessary to commission 3–4 fields annually, comparable in size to the Vankor field (about 500 million tons), - this is the result of the review.
If we take into account the sale at the auction in 2012 of the last three undistributed large oil fields onshore, then today we can finally state that in the future, new large Russian fields will be commissioned precisely on the shelf.
THE ARCTIC IS A KEY RESOURCE FOR GROWTH
The possibility of developing huge oil reserves on land at a relatively low production cost (compared to offshore projects) for a long time naturally influenced Russia's "lag" in the development of offshore fields. However, today the country is already objectively forced to be more actively involved in the development of the shelf. The initial oil reserves, according to the "Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2025", have already been developed by more than 50%, in the European part - by 65%, including in the Ural-Volga region - by more than 70%. The degree of depletion of reserves of large actively developed deposits is approaching 60%.
"The development of the Arctic shelf can become a significant source of production growth in the long term," the review emphasizes. To date, the total hydrocarbon resources on the Russian Arctic shelf are estimated at 76.3 billion tons of reference fuel (toe), and recoverable - at 9.6 billion tons of fuel equivalent. The main part of these resources (about 70%) falls on the continental shelf of the Barents, Pechora and Kara seas.
Exploration of hydrocarbon resources of the Russian continental shelf is insignificant and in most areas does not exceed 10%. At the same time, the exploration of oil and gas resources of the continental shelf of the Caspian, Barents and Okhotsk seas exceeds 15%. Most of the developed reserves are natural gas.
Recall, according to the estimates presented in the "Energy Strategy of Russia for the period up to 2030", the forecast gas resources on the continental shelf of the Russian Federation exceed 60 trillion m 3, of which the explored balance reserves of gas of industrial categories A + B + C 1 are about 7 trillion. The harsh conditions of the Arctic: difficult ice conditions, low temperatures, lack of infrastructure - all this requires the use of unique knowledge and technologies. If drilling exploration wells For a short period of the Arctic summer - the problem is solved, then the issues of the system for their arrangement and subsequent production are much more complex.
The unique experience of LUKOIL's work on Varandey, on the shelves of the Caspian and Baltic, as well as on the foreign deep-sea shelf could be very useful for Arctic projects. However, the current legislation limits the access of private companies to the development of offshore fields in Russia. Today, only state-owned companies have the right to extract oil in the Russian Arctic.
"The removal of this restriction could give an additional impetus to exploration activities in the region, promote the diffusion of technology, and spread the risks among a larger number of participants," the analytical review concludes.
WHERE IS THE EXIT?
While maintaining the current conditions for the admission of companies to work on the shelf, the authors of the review emphasize, production on the Arctic shelf will be about 12 million tons.
The analytical review considers options for the development of the entire industry, while it tactfully does not mention the plans of Lukoil itself. What course will the Russian major follow in its offshore strategy? For the company, based on the current situation, two ways out are obvious. The first is to wait for positive changes in the legislation. It is objectively not in the interests of the state to limit the number of companies that are willing and able to invest in offshore exploration and subsequently develop these new deposits as soon as possible, quickly involving them in turnover, bringing taxes to the state and providing new jobs.
If this does not happen, for such a major player as LUKOIL, there will be a second option - to focus on new potentially effective foreign projects on the deep-water shelves of Norway, Brazil, Venezuela, and West African countries. The company is ready to implement such a scenario - today it is actively involved in exploration projects on the shelves of Vietnam, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Norway, Romania, Sierra Leone and Uzbekistan.
The authors of the review emphasize: "In order to maintain sustainable production in the long term, additional steps are needed to reform the system of taxation of oil production. Otherwise, a decrease in production can be expected starting from 2016–2017."
However, past experience indicates the ability of the government to adequately respond to the decline in production of "black gold". "Timely measures to mitigate the tax burden made it possible to ensure a stable level of production after the crisis period of 2008-2009. In particular, in 2010-2011, the export duty rate was reduced, MET benefits were granted, preferential export duty rates were introduced for fields in Eastern Siberia and the Northern Caspian shelf, as well as the 10-10-10 preferential system to stimulate the production of extra-viscous oil," the review notes.
Moreover, in July 2013, the President of Russia signed a law that provides for differentiation of the extraction tax rate for hard-to-recover oil reserves. In accordance with the law, the government of the Russian Federation will have the right to establish formulas for calculating the rates of export customs duties for such oil. The procedure for determining and applying a coefficient characterizing the degree of complexity of oil production and the depletion of a particular hydrocarbon deposit has been established. In particular, for production from the Bazhenov, Abalak, Khadum and Domanik productive deposits, this coefficient will be equal to zero.
So, the first progressive legislative changes in this direction have already been made. Now next in line is an equally important issue - stimulating the effective development of the shelf of the Russian seas.
offshore production
Offshore oil production
We are on a drilling platform - a complex technical structure designed for offshore oil production. Coastal deposits often continue on the part of the mainland located under water, which is called the shelf. Its borders are the coast and the so-called edge - a clearly defined ledge, beyond which the depth rapidly increases. Usually the depth of the sea above the crest is 100-200 meters, but sometimes it reaches up to 500 meters, and even up to one and a half kilometers, for example, in the southern part of the Sea of \u200b\u200bOkhotsk or off the coast of New Zealand.
Different technologies are used depending on the depth. In shallow water, fortified "islands" are usually built, from which they carry out. This is how it has long been mined in the Caspian deposits in the Baku region. The use of this method, especially in cold waters, is often associated with the risk of damage to oil-producing "islands" floating ice. For example, in 1953, a large ice mass that broke away from the shore destroyed about half of the oil wells in the Caspian Sea. Less commonly used technology is when the desired area is edged with dams and water is pumped out of the resulting pit. At a sea depth of up to 30 meters, concrete and metal overpasses were previously built, on which equipment was placed. The flyover was connected to the land or was an artificial island. Subsequently, this technology has lost its relevance.
If the field is located close to land, it makes sense to drill an inclined well from the shore. One of the most interesting modern developments is remote control of horizontal drilling. Specialists control the passage of the well from the shore. The accuracy of the process is so high that you can get to the desired point from a distance of several kilometers. In February 2008, Exxon Mobil Corporation set a world record for drilling such wells as part of the Sakhalin-1 project. The length of the wellbore here was 11,680 meters. was carried out first in a vertical and then in a horizontal direction under the seabed at the Chayvo field, 8-11 kilometers from the coast.
The deeper the water, the more sophisticated technologies are applied. At depths up to 40 meters, stationary platforms are built, but if the depth reaches 80 meters, floating drilling rigs equipped with supports are used. Up to 150-200 meters, semi-submersible platforms operate, which are held in place with anchors or a complex dynamic stabilization system. And drilling ships are subject to drilling at much larger sea depths. Most of the "wells-record holders" were carried out in the Gulf of Mexico - more than 15 wells were drilled at a depth exceeding one and a half kilometers. The absolute record for deep water drilling was set in 2004 when Transocean and ChevronTexaco's Discoverer Deel Seas began drilling a well in the Gulf of Mexico (Alaminos Canyon Block 951) at a sea depth of 3,053 meters.
In the northern seas, which are characterized by difficult conditions, stationary platforms are often built, which are held at the bottom due to the huge mass of the base. Hollow "pillars" rise up from the base, in which the extracted oil or equipment can be stored. First, the structure is towed to its destination, flooded, and then, right into the sea, the upper part is built on. The plant on which such structures are built is comparable in area to a small city. Drilling rigs on large modern platforms can be moved to drill as many wells as needed. The task of the designers of such platforms is to install the maximum of high-tech equipment in the minimum area, which makes this task similar to the design spaceship. To cope with frost, ice, high waves, drilling equipment can be installed right on the bottom.
The development of these technologies is extremely important for our country, which has the world's largest continental shelf. Most of it is located beyond the Arctic Circle, and so far these harsh spaces are still very, very far from being mastered. According to forecasts, the Arctic shelf may contain up to 25% of the world's oil reserves.
- The Norwegian platform "Troll-A", a bright "representative" of the family of large northern platforms, reaches 472 m in height and weighs 656,000 tons.
- The Americans consider 1896 to be the start date of the offshore oil field, and its pioneer is the oilman Williams from California, who drilled wells from the embankment he built.
- In 1949, 42 km from the Absheron Peninsula, on the overpasses built to extract oil from the bottom of the Caspian Sea, a whole village called Oil Rocks was built. Employees of the enterprise lived in it for weeks. The Oil Rocks Overpass can be seen in one of the James Bond films - "The whole world is not enough."
- The need to maintain the subsea equipment of drilling platforms has significantly influenced the development of deep-sea diving equipment.
- To quickly close the well in an emergency - for example, if a storm prevents the drillship from remaining in place - a kind of plug called a "preventer" is used. The length of such preventers reaches 18 m, and the weight is 150 tons.
- The beginning of the active development of the offshore shelf was facilitated by the global oil crisis that erupted in the 70s of the last century. After the embargo was announced by countries, there was an urgent need for alternative sources of oil supplies. Also, the development of the shelf was facilitated by the development of technologies that by that time had reached such a level that would allow drilling at significant sea depths.
- gas field Groningen, discovered off the coast of Holland in 1959, not only became the starting point in the development of the North Sea shelf, but also gave the name to the new economic term. Economists called the Groningen effect (or Dutch disease) a significant appreciation of the national currency, which occurred as a result of an increase in gas exports and had a negative impact on other export-import industries.
Brief electronic reference book on the main oil and gas terms with a system of cross-references. - M.: Russian State University oil and gas them. I. M. Gubkina. M.A. Mokhov, L.V. Igrevsky, E.S. Novik. 2004 .
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We are on a drilling platform, a complex technical facility designed for offshore oil production. Coastal deposits often continue on the part of the mainland located under water, which is called the shelf. Its borders are the coast and the so-called edge - a clearly defined ledge, beyond which the depth rapidly increases. Usually the depth of the sea above the crest is 100-200 meters, but sometimes it reaches up to 500 meters, and even up to one and a half kilometers, for example, in the southern part of the Sea of \u200b\u200bOkhotsk or off the coast of New Zealand.
Different technologies are used depending on the depth. In shallow water, fortified "islands" are usually built, from which drilling is carried out. This is how oil has long been extracted from the Caspian fields in the Baku region. The use of such a method, especially in cold waters, is often associated with the risk of damage to oil-producing "islands" by floating ice. For example, in 1953, a large ice mass that broke away from the shore destroyed about half of the oil wells in the Caspian Sea. Less commonly used technology is when the desired area is edged with dams and water is pumped out of the resulting pit. At a sea depth of up to 30 meters, concrete and metal overpasses were previously built, on which equipment was placed. The flyover was connected to the land or was an artificial island. Subsequently, this technology has lost its relevance.
If the field is located close to land, it makes sense to drill an inclined well from the shore. One of the most interesting modern developments is the remote control of horizontal drilling. Specialists control the passage of the well from the shore. The accuracy of the process is so high that you can get to the desired point from a distance of several kilometers. In February 2008, Exxon Mobil Corporation set a world record for drilling such wells as part of the Sakhalin-1 project. The length of the wellbore here was 11,680 meters. Drilling was carried out first in a vertical and then in a horizontal direction under the seabed at the Chayvo field, 8-11 kilometers from the coast.
The deeper the water, the more sophisticated technologies are applied. At depths up to 40 meters, stationary platforms are built, but if the depth reaches 80 meters, floating drilling rigs equipped with supports are used. Up to 150-200 meters, semi-submersible platforms operate, which are held in place with anchors or a complex dynamic stabilization system. And drilling ships are subject to drilling at much greater sea depths. Most of the "record wells" were conducted in the Gulf of Mexico - more than 15 wells were drilled at a depth exceeding one and a half kilometers. The absolute record for deep water drilling was set in 2004 when Transocean and ChevronTexaco's Discoverer Deel Seas drillship began drilling a well in the Gulf of Mexico (Alaminos Canyon Block 951) at a sea depth of 3,053 meters.
In the northern seas, which are characterized by difficult conditions, stationary platforms are often built, which are held at the bottom due to the huge mass of the base. Hollow "pillars" rise up from the base, in which the extracted oil or equipment can be stored. First, the structure is towed to its destination, flooded, and then, right into the sea, the upper part is built on. The plant on which such structures are built is comparable in area to a small city. Drilling rigs on large modern platforms can be moved to drill as many wells as needed. The task of the designers of such platforms is to install the maximum of high-tech equipment in the minimum area, which makes this task similar to designing a spaceship. To cope with frost, ice, high waves, drilling equipment can be installed right on the bottom.
The development of these technologies is extremely important for our country, which has the world's largest continental shelf. Most of it is located beyond the Arctic Circle, and so far these harsh spaces are still very, very far from being mastered. According to forecasts, the Arctic shelf may contain up to 25% of the world's oil reserves.
Interesting Facts
- The Norwegian platform "Troll-A", a bright "representative" of the family of large northern platforms, reaches 472 m in height and weighs 656,000 tons.
- The Americans consider 1896 to be the start date of the offshore oil field, and its pioneer is the oilman Williams from California, who drilled wells from the embankment he built.
- In 1949, 42 km from the Absheron Peninsula, on the overpasses built to extract oil from the bottom of the Caspian Sea, a whole village called Oil Rocks was built. Employees of the enterprise lived in it for weeks. The Oil Rocks Overpass can be seen in one of the James Bond films - "The whole world is not enough."
- The need to maintain the subsea equipment of drilling platforms has significantly influenced the development of deep-sea diving equipment.
- To shut down the well quickly in an emergency—for example, if a storm prevents the drillship from staying in place—a kind of plug called a "preventer" is used. The length of such preventers reaches 18 m, and the weight is 150 tons.
- The beginning of the active development of the offshore shelf was facilitated by the global oil crisis that erupted in the 70s of the last century. After the embargo was announced by the OPEC countries, there was an urgent need for alternative sources of oil supplies. Also, the development of the shelf was facilitated by the development of technologies that by that time had reached such a level that would allow drilling at significant sea depths.
- The Groningen gas field, discovered off the coast of Holland in 1959, not only became the starting point in the development of the North Sea shelf, but also gave the name to a new economic term. Economists called the Groningen effect (or Dutch disease) a significant appreciation of the national currency, which occurred as a result of an increase in gas exports and had a negative impact on other export-import industries.