Entrepreneurship is always in danger. Any action of a businessman can turn into a risk and lead to damage, losses and losses. A powerful incentive forcing a person to commit them is the likelihood of receiving a certain income.
Definition of risk
Modern economic practice has recently acquired such concepts as "risk characterization", "unstable situation", "risk analysis", "risk minimization". Only a few years ago, the combination of accumulated international experience and the Russian theoretical base made it possible to legislate these concepts, as well as make them an obligatory part of a business plan or investment project.
Risk is the probability of how much the expected income will not be received or what part of the resources will be lost.
Risk characteristic:
- potential damage expressed in money;
- the likelihood of the risk occurring;
- the level of risk, that is, the ratio of the costs necessary to prepare and implement the risk and potential damage: if the result exceeds 1, then the risk is considered unjustified;
- legitimacy of the risk: this value is determined by the probability of the risk being within the limits established by law and standards (for example, the reserve fund of the tour operator must be at least 1 million rubles).
Human activity also always accompanies risk. The cause of the danger may be the environment or directly the person himself.
Risk is the probability that a hazard will occur, causing specific consequences and an uncertain amount of damage. An example is the risk of disease.
Entrepreneurial risks
Entrepreneurial risk was first classified by J. Keynes. He believed that the price of goods should include: the costs associated with increased wear and tear of the equipment used, the volatility of market conditions, as well as a number of destruction caused by the occurrence of any emergency (risk costs). 
In the economic sphere, it is customary to distinguish the following types of entrepreneurial risks:
- Borrower or entrepreneur risk- arises in the event that an investment of own funds is planned, and the entrepreneur has doubts about whether the benefit that he planned will be achieved.
- Creditor risk- occurs in cases where there is a credit transaction. It is connected with the validity of the trust, because the debtor may begin to evade the fulfillment of his own obligation or organize a deliberate bankruptcy. The likelihood of risk is also increased due to insufficient collateral for the loan in the event that an involuntary bankruptcy occurs as a result of the expected income not being achieved.
- Inflation risk- a possible decrease in the value of a unit of money. This suggests the conclusion that the reliability of a cash loan is much lower than that of real property. In addition, the long-term investment investment puts the debtor in a privileged position in relation to the creditor.
J. Keynes believed that entrepreneurial risk requires preliminary quantitative and qualitative analysis.
Types of business risks
The concept of business risk includes the following questions:
- risk management;
- business risk insurance;
- distribution of risks in accordance with the subjects;
- change in risk conditions, etc.
Among the main ones, one can single out the “danger” of the national level (the economy of the native country) and the international level (the economy of other countries).
National entrepreneurial risks include:
Economic risks of the macroeconomic level are represented by national and local ones. The subject of the first is the highest body of state power. Local risk is inherent in private, specific tasks and manifests itself at the level of sectoral or regional economic management.
Subject of risk
The characteristic of risk assumes its classification in accordance with the subject, type and manifestation. Risk subjects are usually legal or natural persons participating in it or causing it.
The subjects of entrepreneurial risks can be:
- manufacturing enterprises;
- individuals (individuals or profit recipients);
- other entities (organizations practicing non-productive activities, including a government agency).
The main types of risk include:
- production (clean);
- investment;
- innovative;
- financial;
- complex;
- commodity;
- bank.
The last type of risk is a separate position, since its importance and specificity is very high.
Risk Analysis
Any enterprise, business, company is inherent in the presence of certain risks that may affect the final result. In the process of implementing a business strategy, the rights, obligations and obligations of the entrepreneur may change, an unforeseen or previously unused process may appear, as well as consequences of a different type. The choice of optimal actions aimed at achieving the result is greatly influenced by risk analysis and taking into account the influence of side effects. 
The assessment should use all available information to determine the likelihood of a particular event occurring and the possible magnitude of its consequences. Risk analysis is aimed at identifying all negative events and circumstances, for example, a loss during the venture, a natural disaster that led to serious consequences, etc. At the same time, it is possible to identify potential positive consequences.
Qualitative risk analysis
This study is based on an internal (instinctive) assessment of the emerging events. This level presupposes subjective judgment and the opinions it evokes.
A qualitative risk assessment is of a simple descriptive nature, while the analyst-researcher must reach a quantitative result, a cost estimate of the identified risk, its negative consequences and “stabilization” measures. 
The qualitative approach as the main task sets itself the identification and identification of possible types of risks inherent in the project. In addition, the estimated consequences of the hypothetical realization of the identified risk should be described and given, and measures aimed at minimizing and / or compensating for this event should be proposed.
Quantitative risk analysis
Quantitative risk assessment can be carried out using the following methods:
- Deterministic Approach involves a point estimate, that is, in order to understand what the outcome will be in a particular case, each event must be assigned a certain value. For example, the financial model allows you to evaluate the following options: the worst (unprofitable project), the best (future profit) and the most likely (moderate, relative profit). This method has a number of disadvantages: it does not allow for the maximum possible number of scenarios for the development of events (only the main versions are considered), in addition, risk factors that have a significant impact on the situation are not sufficiently taken into account, which greatly simplifies the model.
- Stochastic risk analysis is a much more reliable method. This approach involves the use of range values of the initial parameters (a probability distribution is made). At the same time, different variables have different probabilities of consequences. The value is chosen randomly based on a possible probability distribution.
Internal and external risk factors
The risk factors of any business can be divided into 2 groups:
- internal;
- external.
An external (objective) factor is everything that has a direct connection with the production process of a business entity, that is, an organization.
External risk factors can be:
- regional;
- socio-economic;
- political;
- industry.
The socio-economic sphere includes: inflationary risk factor, deflationary, tax, percentage, price in relation to raw materials, materials and components. As a result of the impact of these factors, the market situation may change dramatically, the solvency of demand may decrease, or competition will become tougher.
The regional factor includes: socio-demographic risk, regional and tax. The industry factor implies the danger of the organization's position in the industry, environmental and others. The political factor is the loss of control caused by instability and the impossibility of normal business activities due to the fact that restrictions were introduced related to the exchange of goods and trade.
An internal (subjective) risk factor can manifest itself directly in the process of doing business and directly depends on what type, method, strategy and tactics of management have been chosen.
Hazard identification
Danger often has a potential, that is, hidden character. Hazard identification consists in detecting and establishing characteristics of a quantitative, spatial, temporal and other nature, without which it is impossible to develop and implement operational and preventive measures that contribute to the normal functioning of the technical system and improve the quality of life. 
The identification process makes it possible to identify the range of hazards, the likelihood of their manifestation, spatial localization (coordinates), the scale of damage, and a number of other parameters necessary to solve a particular problem.
Hazard identification involves the use of the following methods:
- Engineering defines hazards that have a probabilistic nature of origin.
- The expert detects failures and looks for the reasons for their origin. This requires the creation of a special expert commission, consisting of various experts giving opinions.
- Sociological. In this case, the danger is determined on the basis of a study of the opinions of the population (social group).
- Registration uses information about the count of any events, resource costs, the number of victims, etc.
- Organoleptic. For analysis, only the information that was received by the human senses (vision, touch, smell, taste, etc.) is taken. An example is a visual inspection of products or equipment, as well as determining by ear the clarity of the engine.
The risk profile is of Italian origin and represents a danger or an obstacle that could be foreseen to a certain extent. In other words, it is an uncertainty that, due to certain events, it was difficult or impossible to foresee.
Many sciences, such as catastrophe theory, psychology, philosophy, medicine, etc., tried to establish and explore the concept of risk. At the same time, each of them took its own subject of study as a basis and used its own approaches and methods. This is where the multifaceted nature of this phenomenon lies.
The free interaction of market entities and dynamically developing competition led to the fact that economic risks were recognized as an objectively necessary category, entailing significant adjustments in the amount of not only entrepreneurial income, but also wages.
On methods for assessing economic risks
To determine the level of risk, you need to do the following:
- identify possible solutions to the problem;
- determine the potential consequences that the implementation of the decision may lead to;
- make an integral risk assessment, in terms of quantitative and qualitative aspects.
There are several risk assessment methods designed to implement the above activities in a complex. But, despite this, the general trend of hazard assessment in 2 directions remains. It is about the level of risk and the risk of time.
The first determines the ratio of the magnitude of the expected losses and the amount of fixed assets of the organization, as well as the likelihood that these losses will occur.
Any method of assessing the level of risk as an initial parameter takes the variability of the consequences of a decision.
Variability is the amount of fluctuation that has occurred in a certain range of values as a result of the fact that there was a deviation from the characteristic mean value.
The main postulate of the level of risk is the following definition: a greater value of variability is fraught with a higher level of project risk.
Another factor that strongly influences risk is time. That is why the economic danger is often referred to only as an "increasing function of time", that is, the longer the decision is implemented, the higher the level of risk.
Investment risks
Investment risk takes place where there is a possibility that profit may not be received or lost at all in the process of implementing a particular business project. In this case, the object of risk is the property interest of persons who have invested their own funds, that is, investors.
In accordance with the peculiarities of implementing a business plan or a method of raising borrowed funds, the following risks can be distinguished:
- credit;
- inherent in the first stage of the investment project;
- entrepreneurial, directly related to the second stage of investment activity;
- country.
Investment risks are characterized by a complex structure, since each of the above components of the group cannot be called homogeneous.
Thus, the general risks that take place at the first stage of the project implementation are as follows:
- identification of a technical error in the project;
- incorrect execution of a legal right: a lease or ownership in relation to a land plot, a property or a permit to start construction work. The causes of risk are often hidden in the lack of relevant knowledge.
- Cost overrun due to increased project cost.
The second stage of the investment project implementation should ensure its payback. This stage involves the usual trade or production activities, so it is pursued by various adverse consequences, otherwise called entrepreneurial risks.
Financing an investment project by obtaining a loan can only be used for certain purposes specified in the feasibility study of the business plan. This situation may cause the risk of possible non-repayment of the amount of borrowed funds and interest on them, that is, credit risk. The reasons may be different: project incompleteness, changing market situation, low level of marketing processing of the business plan, or emergency circumstances.
Experts from various industries in messages and reports write about the terms "danger" and "risk".
In the scientific literature, they write about different interpretations of the term "risk". The term "risk" has several meanings. Terms differ in content. Risk in the terminology of insurance is used to refer to the object of insurance of an industrial enterprise or company, an insured event of flood, fire, explosion, the insurance amount of danger in monetary terms, or a collective term to refer to undesirable and uncertain events. Economists and statisticians who deal with these questions understand risk as a measure of the possible consequences that will occur at some point in the future. In the psychological dictionary, risk is an action aimed at an attractive goal, the achievement of which is associated with elements of danger, the threat of loss, a situational characteristic of activity, consisting of uncertainty and adverse consequences, determined by a combination of the probability and magnitude of adverse consequences. Several definitions of the term describe risk as the occurrence of an accident. Accidents: danger, accident, catastrophe. Accidents occur under certain conditions of production or the atmospheric environment surrounding a person. Definitions as the value of the active activity of the subject, the objective properties of the environment. The common in all the above representations includes an event. There will be an unwanted event or there will be no unwanted event. Usually a probabilistic measure of man-made occurrences and natural phenomena, accompanied by the emergence, formation and action of the dangers of the social, economic and technological harm caused by this. Risk is usually a probabilistic measure of the occurrence of man-made or natural phenomena, accompanied by the emergence, formation and action of hazards, causing social, economic, environmental damage and harm. from an unwanted event, some combination of values.
Risk is actually a measure of danger. Use the concept of the degree of risk.
The concept of the degree of risk (Level of risk) - does not differ from the concept of risk.
The degree of risk is a measurable value.
The term risk is currently used in hazard analysis and safety (process risk) and production management.
The formation of dangerous and emergency situations is the result of a certain set of risk factors generated by the relevant sources.
With regard to life safety, such an event can be the death of a person, an accident or catastrophe of a technical system or device, pollution or deterioration of the ecological system, the death of a group of people, an increase in mortality, an increase in security costs.
Each undesirable event may occur in relation to a specific victim - the object of risk.
There are individual, technical, environmental, social and economic risks.
Types of risk.
Technical. Technical systems and objects. Violation of the rules of operation and technical systems and objects. Accident, explosion, catastrophe, fire. Anthropogenic environmental disasters, technical disasters.
Ecological. Ecological systems. Anthropogenic intervention in the natural environment, man-made emergencies. Anthropogenic, environmental disasters, natural disasters.
Social. social groups. Emergency. Decreased quality of life. group trauma. Diseases. The death of people. The rise in mortality.
Economic. Material resources. Increased risk of production. Increased danger of the natural environment. Increasing security costs. Damage from inadequate protection.
Individual. Human. conditions of human life. Diseases. Injury. Disability. Death.
Individual risk is determined by the probability of realization of potential hazards in the event of hazardous situations. It can be determined by the number of realized risk factors:
R-individual risk;
P - the number of victims who died per unit of time t from a certain risk factor f,
W is the number of people exposed to the risk factor f per unit of time t.
Source of individual risk. The most common risk factor for death.
The internal environment of the human body. Aging.
Victimization. Victim of potential dangers.
Social ecology. Poor quality air. Water. Food. Viral infections. Household injuries. Fires.
Professional activity. Dangerous and harmful production factors.
Transport communications. Accidents and catastrophes of vehicles. Collisions with a transport man. Accident. Catastrophe.
non-professional activity. Sport.
Social environment. Armed conflict. Murder.
Environment. Earthquake. Eruption. Flooding, landslides, hurricanes and other natural disasters.
individual risk. A person is at risk in environmentally unfavorable conditions of the atmospheric environment.
A comprehensive indicator of the reliability of the elements of the technosphere. It expresses the probability of an accident or disaster during the operation of machines, mechanisms, the implementation of technological processes, construction, operation of buildings
R T ‗ ΔT (t)_
Technical risk
T number of accidents per time unit t on identical technical systems and objects
T is the number of identical technical systems and objects subject to a common factor.
Sources and factors of technical risk f.
Sources and factors of technical risk.
The number of accidents per time unit t on systems and objects.
Individual risk can be voluntary if it is caused by human activity.
Choice of constructive schemes and principles of operation of technical systems.
Errors in determining operational loads. Wrong choice of construction materials. Insufficient margin of safety. Lack of technical safety equipment in the projects. Poor quality construction. Technology. Security Criteria Documentation. Serial production of unsafe equipment. Deviation from the specified chemical materials. Insufficient accuracy of structural dimensions. Violation of the regimes of thermal and chemical-thermal treatment, parts. Violation of the regulations for the assembly and mounting of structures and machines. Violation of the rules for the safe operation of technical systems.
Use of technology inappropriately. Violation of passport design regimes, operation. Untimely preventive inspections and repairs. Violations of the requirements of transportation and storage. Staff mistakes. Weak skills of action in a difficult situation. Inability to evaluate information about the state of the process. Poor knowledge of the essence of the ongoing process. Lack of self-control under stress. Indiscipline.
environmental risk.
Ecological risk expresses the probability of an ecological disaster, catastrophe, disruption of the further normal functioning and existence of ecological systems and objects as a result of anthropogenic interference in the natural environment or natural disaster.
Unwanted environmental risk events both directly in intervention areas and beyond:
Ro═ environmental risk
О number of anthropogenic technological disasters and natural disasters per unit of time t
Number of potential sources of environmental damage in the territory under consideration
The scale of ecological risk Rom is estimated by the percentage ratio of the area of crisis or catastrophic territories to the total area of the considered biogeocenosis.
Rom = ∆S 100
An additional indirect criterion of environmental risk can be an integral indicator of the environmental friendliness of the territory of the enterprise, correlated with the dynamics of population density (number of employees):
OT = +ΔX + ΔM(t)S
O Т ═ ΔX+-Δ M (t)S
From the level of environmental friendliness of the territory.
S area of the study area.
Sources and factors of social risk.
Urbanization of ecologically unstable territories. Settlement of people in areas of possible formation of increased seismicity. Industrial technologies and objects of danger. Accidents at nuclear power plants, thermal power plants, chemical plants, product pipelines. Technogenic pollution of the environment. Social and military conflicts.
Combat actions. The use of weapons of mass destruction. epidemics.
Spread of viral infections. Unsatisfactory living conditions.
Economic risk is determined by the ratio of benefits and harms received by society from the type of activity in question.
Bibliography
1. "OBZH: Safety through training" 2008 Moscow.
RISK
an action that jeopardizes the satisfaction of some sufficiently important need. The risk situation is based on the choice of two alternative behaviors - associated with a possible failure, on the one hand, and involving at least a minimal preservation of what has already been achieved, on the other. At the same time, the choice of risky behavior is not always due to the higher value of the result achieved in this case. Often there is a tendency to disinterested risk, which is perceived as an independent value.
RISK
situational characteristic of activity, consisting in the uncertainty of its outcome and possible adverse consequences in case of failure. In psychology, this term corresponds to three main interrelated meanings.
1. Risk as a measure of the expected disadvantage in case of failure in an activity, determined by a combination of the probability of failure and the degree of adverse consequences in this case.
2. Risk as an action, the implementation of which endangers the satisfaction of some rather important need, or in some respect threatens the subject with loss - loss, injury, damage. Experimentally, motivated risk, calculated on situational advantages in activity, and unmotivated risk are distinguished here. In addition, based on the ratio of the expected gain and the expected loss in the implementation of the corresponding action, justified and unjustified risks are distinguished.
3. Risk as a situation of choice between two (or even more) possible options for action, the outcome of which is problematic and associated with possible adverse consequences: less attractive, but more reliable, and more attractive, but less reliable. Traditionally, there are two classes of situations:
1) those in which success and failure are evaluated according to a certain scale of achievements - situations like "level of claims";
2) those in which failure entails punishment - physical threat, pain, social sanctions. At the same time, the choice of risky behavior is not always due to the higher value of the result achieved. Often there is a tendency to unselfish risk, perceived as an independent value.
An important distinction is made between situations of chance, where the outcome depends on chance, and situations of skill, where it is related to the abilities of the subject. It was found that, other things being equal, people show a higher level of risk in situations that are not related to chance, but to skill - when they believe that something depends on them.
In psychology, the concept of risk is revealed mainly in the aspect of risk acceptance - the subject's active preference for a dangerous option of action to a safe one. Attention is drawn to the phenomenon of a shift towards a greater or lesser level of risk in a group discussion of activities (-> shift is risky).
Risk
Specificity. An action that jeopardizes the satisfaction of some sufficiently important need. The risk situation is based on the choice of two alternative behaviors - associated with a possible failure, on the one hand, and involving at least a minimal preservation of what has already been achieved, on the other. At the same time, the choice of risky behavior is not always due to the higher value of the result achieved in this case. Often there is a tendency to disinterested risk, which is perceived as an independent value.
RISK
An action that threatens something of value. Risk and the role it plays in psychological phenomena have been studied in depth: for example, choice shift, play (and following articles), benefit and value (1,3).
Risk
Greek risikon - cliff] - a situational characteristic of an activity, consisting in the uncertainty of its outcome and possible adverse consequences in case of failure. In psychology, the term "R." correspond to three main interrelated values: 1) R. as a measure of expected trouble in case of failure in activity, determined by a combination of the probability of failure and the degree of adverse consequences in this case; 2) R. as an action that in one way or another threatens the subject with loss (loss, injury, damage). Experimentally, R. motivated, calculated on situational advantages in activity, and unmotivated R. are distinguished. In addition, based on the ratio of the expected gain and the expected loss in the implementation of the corresponding action, justified and unjustified R. are distinguished; 3) R. as a situation of choice between two possible options for action: less attractive, but more reliable, and more attractive, but less reliable (the outcome of which is problematic and associated with possible adverse consequences). Traditionally, two classes of situations are distinguished here, in which: a) success and failure are evaluated according to a certain scale of achievements (situations like "level of claims"), b) failure entails punishment (physical threat, pain impact, social sanctions). There is an important difference between those situations where the outcome depends on chance (chance situations) and those in which it is related to the abilities of the subject (skill situations). It was found that, all other things being equal, people show a higher level of R. in situations that are not related to chance, but to skill, when a person believes that something depends on him. In psychology, the concept of "R." is revealed mainly in the aspect of accepting R., i.e. active preference by the subject of a dangerous option of action to a safe one. The attention of researchers is traditionally attracted by the phenomena of a shift towards a higher or lower level of R. in the conditions of a group discussion of activity. V.A. Petrovsky
RISK
a situational characteristic of behavior and activity, which consists in making a decision that, on the one hand, significantly increases the expected gain, on the other hand, reduces the likelihood of its achievement and increases the extent of a possible loss in case of failure. In psychology, the term "R." correspond to three main interconnected values. 1. R. as a measure of the expected disadvantage in case of failure in an activity, determined by a combination of the probability of failure and the degree of adverse consequences in this case. 2. R. as an action that in one way or another threatens the subject with loss (loss, injury, damage). Experimentally, R. motivated, calculated on situational advantages in activity, and "disinterested" R. are distinguished. In addition, based on the ratio of the expected gain and the expected loss in the implementation of the corresponding action, justified and unjustified R. 3. R. are distinguished as a situation of choosing between two possible options for action: less attractive, but more reliable, and more attractive, but less reliable ( the outcome of which is problematic and associated with possible adverse consequences). Traditionally, two classes of situations are distinguished in which: a) success and failure are evaluated according to a certain scale of achievements (situations such as "level of claims"); b) failure entails punishment (physical threat, pain impact, social sanctions). R. to one degree or another is usually present in the decision-making process for conflict actions. It is associated with difficulties in predicting the opponent's response, dynamism, uncertainty and complexity of the conflict situation. In a conflict, in contrast to activity, the avoidance of R., the more unjustified, rather contributes to the preservation of health, material values, and even life. Making a risky decision is usually associated with a struggle of motives. Therefore, R. can serve as a cause of intrapersonal conflict.
Risk
from the Greek risikon - cliff] - features of activity activity, "setting" the obvious uncertainty of its result and sometimes causing negative and even harmful consequences for the subject. According to experts in the field of risk and risky behavior, within the framework of classical social psychology and personality psychology, the term "risk" can be legitimately used in its three main meanings: consequences in this case; 2) risk as an action that in one way or another threatens the subject with loss (loss, injury, damage). Experimentally, motivated risk, calculated on situational advantages in activity, and unmotivated risk are distinguished. In addition, based on the ratio of the expected gain and the expected loss in the implementation of the corresponding action, justified and unjustified risks are singled out; 3) risk as a situation of choice between two possible options for action: less attractive, but more reliable, and more attractive, but less reliable (the outcome of which is problematic and associated with possible adverse consequences). Traditionally, two classes of situations are identified here, in which: a) success and failure are evaluated according to a certain scale of achievements (situations like “level of claims”), b) failure entails punishment (physical threat, pain impact, social sanctions)” (V. A. Petrovsky). At the same time, it should be noted that the phenomenon of risk manifests itself in completely different ways in situations where the subject hopes, as they say, for luck and his decision to take risks is not based on his awareness that he is able to cope with the problem, and in situations where his willingness to take risks is directly related to his idea that he can succeed in connection with his abilities and skills. It is shown that in the second case, the willingness to take risks and confidence in the justification of such a risk in the subject is much higher than in the first case. In practical psychology, the concept of "risk", as a rule, is considered as a term that largely explains the implementation of activity, which involves the adoption by the subject of a decision that can lead to adverse, dangerous consequences of its implementation, and the rejection of that decision, the implementation of which is obviously safe. It is impossible not to stop at one more point in connection with the problem of risk. In psychology, quite firmly, especially in recent decades, the concept of “shift to risk” has been firmly established, which in the semantic plan means a certain effect achieved as a result of a group discussion about the proposed, planned activity. “Shift to risk” is essentially an increase (although some researchers believe that it is in this logic that cases of a decrease in risky activity should also be described) of the riskiness of real and individual, and group actions as a result of group discussions. In this case, as a rule, we are talking about changes in the level of riskiness of secondary individual decisions compared to the original individual decisions, changes in the level of riskiness of secondary group decisions compared to the primary group decision, changes in the level of riskiness of secondary individual decisions compared to the primary group decision, about the change in the level of riskiness of the secondary group decision in comparison with the primary individual decisions.
For the first time the phenomenon of "shift to risk" was recorded in 1961 by J. Stoner. Preparing for the defense of the dissertation, the main hypothesis of which was the assumption that groups are more conservative and cautious in making decisions than individuals, J. Stoner developed an experiment in which subjects were asked to solve the dilemma of fictional characters of the following type: “Carol is a talented teacher community college. She gets a good salary and loves her job. However, Carol always wanted to be her own boss and have her own restaurant. She found a promising young chef to work with, looked for a new restaurant, and checked with her bank about the possibility of obtaining a loan. Opening a restaurant would require Carol to quit her job and invest all of her personal savings into it. If the restaurant is successful, Carol will realize her long-standing ambition and earn a good income. On the other hand, Carol is aware that many new ventures end in failure. If the restaurant turns out to be unpopular, she will waste a lot of time and money and lose her safe and secure teaching job.
Imagine that you are giving advice to Carol. Indicate the lowest probability of success that you think is acceptable for Carol. Carol should open a restaurant if the chances of success are at least:
1 in 10 (Open a restaurant, even if the chances of success are almost non-existent); 2 to 10; 3 to 10; 4 to 10; 5 to 10; 6 to 10; 7 to 10; 8 to 10; 9 to 10; 10 to 10 (Only open a restaurant if success is guaranteed)"1.
After the subjects individually solved 12 similar problems, they were united in groups of five people, in which they had to discuss the available options and come to a consensus. As a result, according to D. Myers, “to everyone's amazement, group decisions usually turned out to be more risky. Experiments revealed the fact that this effect (“risk shift” - V.I., M.K.) is observed not only when consensus is required from the group: after a brief discussion, people also changed their individual decisions. Moreover, researchers have successfully reproduced the Stoner result with subjects of different ages and occupations in many different countries.
However, further research has shown that, under certain conditions, group discussion leads to more conservative and cautious decisions: “It is now proven that when the initial positions of group members are conservative, group discussion leads to a shift towards even more conservatism. Conversely, when these initial positions tend to be more risky, the results of the group discussion are biased towards even more risk. This allowed S. Moscovici and M. Zavalloni to conclude that the "shift to risk" is the most common manifestation of a broader socio-psychological phenomenon, called the phenomenon of group polarization. At present, group polarization is understood as “the strengthening of pre-existing tendencies of group members caused by the influence of the group; shift of the average trend towards its pole instead of a split of opinions within the group”2.
In everyday life, the phenomenon of “shift to risk” is especially clearly manifested in informal adolescent groups, united in which adolescents are prone to much more risky and often even extremist actions than those they would decide to do alone. A similar trend is observed in the so-called extreme sports, especially when it comes to really super-risk actions bordering on unconscious suicidal attempts - hiking in the mountains without proper preparation and organizational support, skiing on unprepared slopes and in avalanche conditions, etc. . P.
However, this in no way means that the “shift to risk” phenomenon should be viewed as an unambiguously negative phenomenon. Without it, in particular, the development and implementation of many significant innovations would be practically impossible. At the same time, it is clear that unjustified risk and adventurous decisions in an organizational context can have the most detrimental and often irreversible consequences. In addition, in the context of the organization, differences in the perception of risk are largely due not only to personal characteristics, but also to the official status position of the individual. In particular, as noted by R. Foster and S. Kaplan, “a CEO who risks billions on behalf of his company, but is associated with it by a long-term contract, does not risk like a lower-level manager who, if the project fails, can be fired from work” 3.
In this regard, within the framework of organizational psychology and management psychologists, numerous attempts have been made to find objective methods for assessing potential risk and develop decision-making algorithms based on them depending on the situational context.
The most famous scheme of this kind to date was developed by a number of American organizational psychologists. They proceeded from the understanding of risk as the assumption that "... that an unfavorable event can occur with a certain degree of probability." On this basis, for a comparative assessment of the alternatives "greater gain - greater probability of failure" and "smaller gain - less probability of failure", they introduced the concept of "expected value". At the same time, it was noted that “the latter is expressed as the product of the level of profits (or costs) by the probability of this event occurring. Thus, if the chances of earning $10 are estimated at 20%, then this is equivalent to a situation of earning $5 with a probability of 40%. Both rates are valued at the same expected value - $2. In the first case, it is 20% of $10, and in the second, 40% of $5. However, the magnitude of the absolute gain and the degree of risk in these options differ by a factor of two. Under these conditions, according to the scientists who proposed the concept of “expected value”, the decision to choose between two alternatives will depend on how much the “expected value” will correspond to ... the “target value” that the decision maker operates in his mind1, in other words, the size of the planned profit.
In the example under consideration, if the expected value of $2 calculated according to the above formula is close to the target value set by the company's management, the latter will most likely follow the path of risk minimization - i.e., will choose the option of obtaining an income of $5 with a probability of 40% . If the expected value of $2 is significantly lower than the target value, then managers are likely to choose to earn $10 with a probability of 20% on a hit or miss basis.
The same thing, as it may not seem strange at first glance, will happen if the expected value is significantly higher than the target, although a different principle applies, namely: “appetite comes with eating”.
Although the presented scheme may seem rather complicated, it is confirmed by a large number of empirical studies conducted in various organizations, in particular by McKinsey consultants, and provides a practical social psychologist specializing in business consulting with a real tool as a situational assessment of alternatives related to with risks, and for management training.
At the same time, a social psychologist working with an organization is obliged to pay special attention to those cases when decisions related to risk assessment are made on an irrational basis under the influence of the subjective preferences of top management. R. Foster and S. Kaplan explain the reason for such situations as follows: “If a decision maker, having failed several times in choosing alternatives, again encounters a similar choice situation, he will choose the same as before. This choice is made not on a rational, but on an irrational, emotional level. So do some corporations, especially those in industries that have entered the period of maturity, which have already tried (and unsuccessfully) to diversify their production. At the same time, leaders and managers suffering from such a “loser complex” in their actions can equally take unjustified risks, and, on the contrary, suppress any initiative and creativity in a total (and again unsuccessful) desire to avoid failures. . It is quite clear that such actions have an extremely negative impact on the performance of not only business organizations, but also any other social communities.
A practical social psychologist who, in the course of his professional activity, is faced with the need to work with a group in the context of an actual adoption of a significant group decision, must understand the nature of the risky behavior of a particular individual, and also take into account the fact that often, if not usually, during a group discussions about the nature of the planned actions there is a fairly significant shift towards risk.
The concept of "risk" has dozens, if not hundreds of definitions. This is one of the most discussed issues among research theorists. Moreover, what should be emphasized, this term is used in extremely different areas of science, from medicine to international relations. Moreover, each area has its own specific approach to this concept. Risk is incorporated into so many different disciplines that it is not surprising that it is defined again in very different ways.
Approaches to the concept risk very different, but they have something in common. Risk inherent in the choice and can substantially influence the decision made regarding the various options. In addition, risk suggests that options can be made according to a meaningful hierarchy of preferences. Finally, risk has to do with the distribution of the outcomes of a decision and how meaningful they are to the person or people making the decision.
This paper proposes a possible approach to solving this problem.
In case of risk, we face at least two cardinal problems. The first one consists in risk. The second is in its subjective assessment, which in itself is also risk. The latter circumstance is not always taken into account by researchers.
The classic idea of risk associated with the possibility of losses as a result of various reasons. Another approach is related to the fact that losses must necessarily be synchronized with the probability of winnings. This point of view has become dominant in Western economic science since the beginning of the 21st century.
However, there are significant differences in approaches to at risk within different fields of science. In microeconomics, for example, risk usually determined by the possibility of negative results. In other words, risk defined as a low probability of success and a high price for the latter.
Most definitions risk unites that the very concept risk unites events, consequences and possibilities, and uncertainty is expressed through probability. In this case, the last factor of the listed ones is very significant.
Basically there are two ways to interpret the probability in the domain risk. According to the first, probability is understood as a relatively frequent repetition of events. According to the second, probability is a subjective measurement of uncertainty about future events and consequences, which is viewed through the prism of an expert's position and is based on existing information and knowledge. Thus probability refers to the subjective or informative evaluation of itself.
If we follow the first definition, then we generate expectations of the inherent “genuine risk". However, this expectation is uncertain, since there can be a very large discrepancy between it and the actual risk parameters.
Variation in the results of an experiment that, for example, generates a true probability value is often referred to as random uncertainty.
In the case of the second definition, we are faced with the possibility of indeterminate estimates that do not have a direct connection with the correct certainty. The probability estimate in this case always exists on the knowledge of the premises
The term "subjective probability" is often problematic when used in real life, because the concept of "subjective" does not look scientific. In principle, it can be replaced by the concept of "probability based on knowledge". Moreover, probabilities are used as tools to express uncertainties.
Risk is defined in different fields of science (and sometimes in the same) in different ways, but the key definitions again come down to uncertainty about the achievement of goals or about potential losses, as well as incomplete control over the implementation of decisions. . Probably, here one should also add uncertainty in the specific definition of a specific risk which is usually overlooked by researchers.
In normal practice risk associated with something negative, with the possibility of loss. For example, it is considered that risk is any event that can have a negative impact on the objectives of the organization. General concept risk in the overwhelming majority of cases, it is associated with the possibility of loss or damage arising from the activities of organizations or the human factor.
At the same time, it is important to pay attention to certain changes. Thus, before 1997, all official published economic risk management standards in the United States used only negative definitions. risk. It was not a dominant, but an absolute trend. In fact, these definitions were synonymous with such concepts as danger, threat, loss, etc. In them risk was seen as an uncertainty that could have a negative, undesirable effect on one or more entities. Thus, risk was seen as equivalent to threat.
However, since 1997, publications began to appear that offered either a neutral definition risk as an uncertainty that may affect one or more objects (where the type of impact has not been determined), or a broader definition, including both the disadvantages and advantages of risk. In other words, it was about risk which can have a positive or negative effect on one or more objects. Hence, for example, the following definition, which can be considered not only relatively short, but also balanced: risk is “a condition in which there is a possibility of deviation from the desired result, which is expected or hoped for”.
As a result, since about 2000, the apparent majority of newly published or republished official standards relating to management risk in economics and finance, unequivocally considered risk as including not only threats, but also opportunities. At the same time, it should be taken into account that in some scientific publications and after 2000, in the definition risks references were made to previous official publications (in this case, the reference was made to one of the works of the British Banking Association in 1999).
At present, the point of view in the economic literature looks more modern, according to which some risks lead to breakthroughs or benefits, while others have purely negative consequences. In general, the prevailing view is that risk is an event associated with a hazardous process that may or may not occur. And three outcomes are possible: losses, profit and no changes.
However, this remark concerns only economic science.
concept risk often used in connection with the term uncertainty. The well-known distinction between risk and uncertainty, due to Frank Knight, is that risk is a calculated uncertainty. This provision has been repeatedly criticized.
Risk often distinguished from uncertainty because of the difference between the impossibility of calculating uncertainties and the computable nature risks based on the possibility of probabilistic knowledge. Other researchers reject this view, noting that actual practices in the field do not really distinguish between risk and uncertainty in this area. Risk and uncertainties are not two different kinds of entities. Uncertainties become risks how soon they appear in the management area.
The emphasis on whether uncertainty is a subjective or objective moment seems to some researchers inappropriate. Both components are necessary for risk to exist. For example, a person jumping out of an airplane without a parachute does not face any risk, since he will definitely die (no uncertainty).
There are some points in the literature that unite risk with uncertainty.
Risk refers to uncertainty about the severity of the consequences or outcomes of activities related to human values.
Risk is directly related to the uncertainty of the result, actions and events.
Risk it is a situation or event when something related to human worth (including people themselves) is in question and when the outcome is uncertain.
Risk it is the indeterminate consequence of an event or action given human value.
Risk equals a combination of two dimensions about events or consequences and their associated uncertainties.
Risk is the uncertainty about the consequences (or outcome) of actions given human value.
Risk exists in any situation where there is uncertainty. And even more so when the stakes are high or the potential payoff is great.
We also note combinations risk with different conditions.
Risk and probability. While certain definitions of risk focus only on the possibility of a certain event occurring, more comprehensive definitions will include both the possibility of a certain event and its consequences. For example, the possibility of a serious earthquake may be small, but the consequences of it will be so catastrophic that it will qualify as a very high risk event.
Risk and a threat. This comparison is carried out in some disciplines. A threat is, in principle, an event with low probability but very high negative consequences, where analysts may not be able to assess the likelihood. Risk, on the other hand, is defined as a high probability event where there is sufficient information to assess both the likelihood and the consequences.
Some definitions risk tend to focus only on the reverse side of scenarios, while others consider the full variety risk.
It must be emphasized that risk in different industries it is customary to define it in different ways. For example, the definition risk in technology, it looks like a product of the probability of an event that is considered undesirable and an estimate of the expected damage from the event. Against, risk in finance is defined in terms of the volatility of the return on investment, even when that return has a positive outcome.
As noted in the literature, in general, the approach to the definition of the term risk in different areas of knowledge can be expressed in several ways.
- Risk equivalent to possible losses.
- Risk tantamount to potential harm.
- Risk is the probability of an unfavorable outcome.
- Risk is a measure of the likelihood and severity of an adverse effect
- Risk it is a combination of probability and degree of consequences
- Risk equals the trinity of a scenario, the likelihood of a scenario, and the consequences of that scenario
- Risk it is a two-way combination of events/consequences and associated uncertainties.
- Risk refers to the uncertainty of the result, actions and events
- Risk it is the indeterminate consequence of an event or action associated with human values.
There are other ways to understand risk. They are usually related to economic risk and the field of decision analysis. In the first case, we are talking about expected losses. On the one hand, results and consequences, as well as utility, are taken into account. Expected utility or harm provides the basis for rational choices. According to this definition, the preferences of decision makers are part of the concept risk. The result is a confounding of scientific assessments of uncertainties about utility or benefit with decision makers' preferences regarding different values of benefit and associated opportunities. There is a point of view that this position related to preferences and values should not be part of the concept of risk and risk assessment. Of course, there is a high level of arbitrariness in choosing what appears to be advantageous, and many decision makers are unwilling to determine the advantage, as this reduces their flexibility in weighing different points in specific cases. Risk can also be described when decision makers are unable or unwilling to determine what exactly they see as a benefit.
Another definition is related to situations where we are talking about objective probabilities for the randomness that appears before decision makers. In the economic literature, traditionally, a distinction is made between the objective situation and uncertainty, which is somehow based on a subjective basis. Although this definition is often used, it is rarely used in practice. It breaks the intuitive interpretation risk which refers to situations of uncertainty and lack of predictability. In addition, it generally does not coincide with the vast majority of definitions of risk.
Recently risk increasingly seen as a combination of threat and opportunity. Those who want high returns must be prepared to deal with a high percentage of risk. Connection between risk and return on investment is most visible when dealing with investment choices. The stock market is more dangerous than investing in bonds, but can bring more profit. It is clear that the level decision risk is key to business success. However, this approach is typical only for economic literature. One of the most fundamental ideas in existence is that the outcome of decisions should be measured in terms of gain or loss, not in terms of overall profit.
A more general solution is expressed in a different perspective: risk is the probability of an accident involving financial loss or death. However, there is also a tendency to understand that risk is always a threat.
Another approach overlooked by most authors is that risk is the level of difference between the result and the expected. In this case, we are talking about an unconventional point of view, which, however, deserves attention.
The conclusions from what has been said are obvious.
First, a general understanding of the concept risk no. There are also no symptoms of approaching him. This is largely due, it seems to me, to the fact that this concept is used in various branches of knowledge and action. For example, in medicine, the possible damage is calculated, and the gain is only implied, while in economics they try to calculate both in advance. In many areas of contact with respect to the term risk Hardly ever.
Secondly, from my point of view, the literature is dominated by the approach of theorists, not practitioners. In principle, this is natural, but this inevitably leads to problems with the latter's understanding of the essence of the ideas under discussion.
Thirdly, it can be assumed that in the foreseeable future, further debates regarding this concept, for the reasons indicated above, will not lead to a fundamental change in the current situation.
From my point of view, the classical opposition between risk and uncertainty since Knight's time does not work practically anywhere. In fact risk grows out of uncertainty. No uncertainty risk.
Grade risk includes analysis risk and the actual evaluation risk. In other words, the score risk itself represents risk, because it always deals with uncertainty, and therefore the possibility of error.
It seems to me that there has been a trend in the last decade and a half to stipulate that risk is a dual unity of gain and loss, on the one hand, is completely fair, but on the other, under the current conditions, leads nowhere. In the vast majority of the world's languages risk always associated with the possibility of loss. In the vast majority of areas of science, too. It is possible that at the present stage, for further progress, it is better to fix this circumstance, albeit for a while.
It seems to me that, from the point of view of current practice, talking about risk can only be instrumental and situational. Subsequently, the circumstances and the progress of science may, of course, change. However, this may only be over time.
Uncertainty in the outcome of a situation, which can sometimes be assessed, predicted, and thereby reduce adverse consequences
Definition, types and functions of risk, psychological aspects of risk, risk management and assessment
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Risk is the definition
Risk is the possibility of danger, failure, random action in the hope of a happy outcome. The risk finds its manifestation through damage, that is, it is associated with the probability of death or damage to the object. And the less the risks are studied, the greater the damage. In this regard, there is a need to collect and analyze information about various adverse events in order to identify general development trends and patterns of their manifestation.
Risk is a characteristic of a situation that has an uncertain outcome, and a prerequisite is the presence of adverse consequences. Risk is understood as uncertainty, or the absence of any possibility of obtaining reliable information about a favorable outcome in the current situation under given external circumstances.
Risk is combination of the likelihood and consequences of adverse events. Also, a risk is often called a directly anticipated event that can bring harm or loss to someone.
Risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on the reputation of the company, leads to gains or losses in monetary terms.
Risk is the probability of a possible unwanted loss of something in a bad combination of circumstances.
Risk is accidents or dangers that are possible, but not inevitable, and may be the causes of losses.
Risk is possible risk of any adverse outcome.
Risk is quantification of hazards, defined as the frequency of one event when another occurs.
Risk is the possibility of an unfavorable situation or an unsuccessful outcome of production and economic or any other activity.
Risk is the likelihood of losses or shortfalls in income compared to the predicted option.
Risk is the probability (threat) of loss by the enterprise of part of its resources, shortfall in income or the appearance of additional costs as a result of certain production and financial activities.
Risk is the possibility of a negative deviation between planned and actual results, i.e. the risk of an adverse outcome per expected event.
Risk is an action (deed, act) performed under the conditions of choice (in a situation of choice in the hope of a happy outcome), when in case of failure there is an opportunity (degree of danger) to be in a worse position than before the choice (than in case of failure to perform this action).
Risk is activities related to overcoming uncertainty in a situation of inevitable choice, during which it is possible to quantitatively and qualitatively assess the likelihood of achieving the intended result, failure and deviation from the goal.
Risk is economic category. As an economic category, it represents an event that may or may not occur. In the event of such an event, three economic outcomes are possible: negative (loss, damage, loss); null; positive (gain, benefit, profit).
Risk is an action performed in the hope of a happy outcome on the principle of luck - no luck.
Risk Characteristics
Risk always assumes the probabilistic nature of the outcome, while basically the word risk is most often understood as the probability of obtaining an unfavorable result (loss), although it can also be described as the probability of obtaining a result different from the expected one. In this sense, it becomes possible to speak of both the risk of loss and the risk of excess profit.
In financial circles risk is a concept related to human expectations of the occurrence of events. Here it may refer to a potentially undesirable effect on an asset or its characteristics, which may result from some past, present or future event. In common usage, risk is often used synonymously with the likelihood of loss or threat.
In professional risk assessments, risk usually combines the likelihood of an event occurring with the impact it could produce, as well as the circumstances surrounding the event's occurrence. However, where assets are valued by the market, the probabilities and impacts of all events are integrally reflected in the market price, and the risk therefore arises only from a change in this price; this is one of the consequences of the Black-Scholes theory of estimation. From the RUP (Rational Unified Process) point of view, a risk is an active/developing process factor that has the potential to negatively affect the course of the process.
Historically, the theory of risks is associated with the theory of insurance and actuarial calculations.
Currently, risk theory is considered as part of crisisology - the science of crises.
The main characteristics of the risk include:
Economic nature;
Objectivity of manifestation;
Probability of occurrence;
Uncertainty of consequences;
Level variability;
Subjectivity of the assessment;
Availability of analysis;
Significance.
The economic nature of risk means that risk is characterized as an economic category, occupying a certain place in the system of economic concepts related to the implementation of the economic process of the enterprise. It manifests itself in the sphere of economic activity of the enterprise, is directly related to the formation of its profit and is often characterized by possible economic consequences in the process of carrying out financial and economic activities.
Risk is an objective phenomenon in the activity of an enterprise, i.e. accompanies everything and all areas of its activity. Despite the fact that a number of risk parameters depend on subjective management decisions, the objective nature of its manifestation remains unchanged.
The probability of occurrence is manifested in the fact that a risk event may or may not occur in the course of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise. The degree of this probability is determined by the action of both objective and subjective factors, however, the probabilistic nature of financial risk is its constant characteristic.
The uncertainty of the consequences of a financial and economic transaction depends on the type of risk and can fluctuate in a fairly significant range. In other words, the risk can be accompanied by both financial losses for the enterprise and the formation of its additional income. This characteristic of risk means the non-determinism (lack of patterns in the appearance) of its financial results, primarily the level of profitability of ongoing operations.
The expected unfavorable consequences implies that although the consequences of a risk manifestation can be both negative and positive indicators of the performance of financial and economic activities, the risk in economic practice is characterized and measured by the level of possible adverse consequences. This is due to the fact that a number of risk consequences determine the loss of not only income, but also the capital of the enterprise, which leads it to bankruptcy (i.e., to irreversible negative consequences for its activities).
The variability of the level lies in the fact that the risk characteristic of a particular operation or for a particular line of business of the enterprise is not unchanged. It changes over time (it depends on the duration of the operation, since the time factor has an independent effect on the level of risk, manifested through the level of liquidity of invested financial resources, the uncertainty of the movement of the loan interest rate in the financial market, etc.) and under the influence of other objective and subjective factors that are in constant dynamics.
The subjectivity of the assessment means that despite the fact that the risk as an economic phenomenon has an objective nature, its estimated indicator - the level of risk - is subjective. This subjectivity (unequal assessment of this objective phenomenon) is determined by different levels of completeness and reliability of the information base, qualifications of financial managers, their experience in the field of risk management and other factors.
The presence of an analysis implies that the risk exists only when the subjective opinion of the “assuming” about the situation is formed and a qualitative or quantitative assessment of the negative event of the future period is given (otherwise it is a threat or danger);
The significance of the risk lies in the fact that the risk exists when the proposed event is of practical importance and affects the interests of at least one subject. There is no risk without belonging.
Risk classification
According to the factors of occurrence:
Economic (commercial) risks.
Political risks are understood as risks caused by a change in the political situation that affects business activities (closure of borders, a ban on the export of goods, military operations in the country, etc.).
Economic risks include risks caused by adverse changes in the economy of the enterprise or in the economy of the country. The most common type of economic risk, in which private risks are concentrated, are changes in market conditions, unbalanced liquidity (inability to fulfill payment obligations in a timely manner), changes in the level of management, etc.
According to the nature of the account:
External risks include risks that are not directly related to the activities of the enterprise or its contact audience (social groups, legal and (or) individuals who show potential and (or) real interest in the activities of a particular enterprise). The level of external risks is influenced by a very large number of factors - political, economic, demographic, social, geographical, etc.
Internal - risks caused by the activities of the enterprise itself and its contact audience. Their level is influenced by the business activity of the enterprise management, the choice of the optimal marketing strategy, policy and tactics, and other factors: production potential, technical equipment, level of specialization, level of labor productivity, safety precautions.
By the nature of the consequences:
Pure risks (sometimes also called simple or static);
Speculative risks (sometimes they are also called dynamic or commercial);
Pure risks are characterized by the fact that they almost always carry losses for entrepreneurial activity. The causes of pure risks can be natural disasters, wars, accidents, criminal acts, incapacity of the organization, etc.
Speculative risks are characterized by the fact that they can carry both losses and additional profit for the entrepreneur in relation to the expected result. Reasons for speculative risks may be changes in market conditions, changes in exchange rates, changes in tax legislation, etc.
By area of origin:
Production risk;
Commercial risk;
financial risk;
insurance risk.
This classification is based on areas of activity, it is the largest group.
In terms of prevalence:
Global risks;
Global risks are understood as such risks, the emergence of which does not depend on the will of any subjects, most often they are of an objective nature. The consequences of the onset of such risks affect the interests of all subjects of risk management. They (risks) are extremely burdensome, and their overcoming requires significant economic and financial costs.
Moreover, the list of tools that can be used to manage such risks is extremely limited precisely because of the wide coverage of those affected by negative consequences.
Quite often, such risks include natural disasters - typhoons, earthquakes, floods. However, at the same time, such risks also include political risks, which in a broad sense are understood as the risks of changing political regimes, social unrest and unrest, wars and related consequences.
Private risks, in contrast to global ones, are quite local, both in terms of the nature of their origin and exposure to the consequences of such risks.
It is quite difficult to draw a clear line separating global and private risks. However, the main criterion should be not so much the nature of the risk as the risk exposure of risk management subjects.
For example, a fire can damage or completely destroy an individual homeowner's home assets, while a forest fire can burn vast areas of forests, destroy hundreds of private properties, and kill many people.
By type of hazard:
man-made risks are risks associated with human economic activity (for example, environmental pollution);
Natural risks are risks that do not depend on human activity (for example, an earthquake);
mixed risks are risks representing events of a natural nature, but associated with human activities (for example, a landslide associated with construction work).
Foresight:
Projected risks are risks that are associated with the cyclical development of the economy, the change in the stages of the financial market, the predictable development of competition, etc.;
unpredictable risks are risks characterized by complete unpredictability of manifestation. For example, force majeure risks, tax risk, etc.
The predictability of risks is relative, since forecasting with a 100% result excludes the phenomenon under consideration from the category of risks. For example, inflation risk, interest rate risk and some other types.
According to this classification feature, risks are also divided into regulated and unregulated within the enterprise.
Potential damage:
Permissible risk is risk, losses for which do not exceed the estimated amount of profit on the operation being carried out;
Critical risk is risk, losses on which do not exceed the estimated amount of gross income for the operation being carried out;
Catastrophic risk is risk, the losses on which are determined by the partial or complete loss of equity capital (may be accompanied by the loss of borrowed capital).
According to the complexity of the study:
A simple risk characterizes the type of risk that is not divided into its individual subspecies. For example, inflation risk;
Complex risk characterizes the type of risk, which consists of a complex of subspecies. For example, investment risk (the risk of an investment project and the risk of a specific financial instrument).
For financial implications:
A risk that entails only economic losses has only negative consequences (loss of income or capital);
Loss of profit risk characterizes the situation when an enterprise, due to existing objective and subjective reasons, cannot carry out a planned operation (for example, if a credit rating is lowered, an enterprise cannot receive the necessary loan);
The risk entailing both economic losses and additional income (“speculative financial risk”) is inherent, as a rule, in speculative financial transactions (for example, the risk of implementing a real investment project, the profitability of which in the operational stage may be lower or higher than the calculated level).
By the nature of manifestation in time:
Constant risk is typical for the entire period of the operation and is associated with the action of constant factors. For example, interest rate risk, currency risk, etc.;
Temporary risk characterizes a risk that is permanent in nature, arising only at certain stages of a financial transaction. For example, the risk of insolvency of the enterprise.
Possibility of insurance:
Insured risks are risks that can be transferred in the order of external insurance to the relevant insurance companies;
Uninsured risks are risks for which there is no offer of relevant insurance products on the insurance market.
The composition of the risks of these two groups under consideration is very mobile and is associated not only with the possibility of their forecasting, but also with the effectiveness of certain types of insurance operations in specific economic conditions under the prevailing forms of state regulation of insurance activities.
By frequency of implementation:
High risks are risks that are characterized by a high frequency of occurrence of damage;
Medium risks are risks, which are characterized by an average frequency of damage;
Small risks are risks that are characterized by a low probability of occurrence of damage.
There are many definitions of risk, born in different situational contexts and different application features. From the most common point of view, each risk (measure of risk) is in a certain sense proportional to both the expected losses that can be caused by a risk event and the probability of this event. Differences in definitions of risk depend on the context of losses, their assessment and measurement, when losses are clear and fixed, for example, “human life”, risk assessment focuses only on the probability of an event (frequency of an event) and the circumstances associated with it.
Based on the foregoing, the following types of risks are also distinguished:
Technical risk is the probability of failure of technical devices with consequences of a certain level (class) for a certain period of operation of a hazardous production facility;
Individual risk is the frequency of damage to an individual as a result of exposure to the studied accident hazard factors;
Potential territorial risk (or potential risk) is the frequency of occurrence of damaging factors of an accident at the considered point of the territory. A special case of territorial risk is an environmental risk, which expresses the probability of an environmental disaster, catastrophe, disruption of the further normal functioning and existence of ecological systems and objects as a result of anthropogenic interference in the natural environment or natural disaster;
Collective risk (group, social) is the risk of a danger of one kind or another for a team, a group of people, for a certain social or professional group of people. A special case of social risk is economic risk, which is determined by the ratio of benefits and harms received by society from the type of activity in question;
Acceptable (permissible) risk of an accident is a risk, the level of which is acceptable and justified based on socio-economic considerations. The risk of operation of the facility is acceptable if, for the sake of the benefits received from the operation of the facility, the society is ready to take this risk. Thus, an acceptable risk is a compromise between the level of safety and the ability to achieve it. The amount of acceptable risk for different societies, social groups and individuals is different. For example, for Europeans and Indians, women and men, rich and poor. At present, it is generally accepted that for the action of man-made hazards, in general, an individual risk is considered acceptable if its value does not exceed 10−6;
Occupational risk is the risk associated with a person's professional activities;
Nanorisk (nano-10−9) is a special type of risk associated with the creation and development, research, use of nanomaterials and nanotechnologies, including a synergistic effect. In contrast to the risks of nanomaterials and nanotechnologies - technogenic risks associated with the use of nanomaterials and nanotechnologies, nanorisks are determined by the minimum amount of substance and the minimum amount of energy embedded in the finished product compared to currently existing energy-intensive materials and technologies that allow reaching the level of 10−8 1 /year in exceptional cases. With the use of nanomaterials and nanotechnologies, there is a real opportunity to achieve a level of technogenic risk of 10−9 1/year, which is at least an order of magnitude less than the existing one. The probability of death for the population from hazards associated with the technosphere is considered unacceptable if it is more than 10−6 per year, and acceptable if this value is less than 10−8 1/year. The decision on objects, the level of individual risk for which lies in the range of 10−6−10−8 1/year, is made on the basis of specific economic and social aspects. The level of technogenic risk of 10−9 1/year should be fixed by law for all nanomaterials and nanotechnologies.
Within the discipline "Risk Management" the following types of risks are considered:
Subjective - risk, the consequences of which cannot be objectively assessed;
Objective - risk with accurately measurable consequences;
Financial - risk, the direct consequences of which are monetary losses;
Non-financial - risk with non-monetary losses, such as loss of health;
Dynamic - risk, the probability and consequences of which change depending on the situation, for example, the risk of an economic crisis;
Static - a risk that does not change over time, for example, the risk of a fire;
Fundamental - non-systematic, non-diversified, risk with total consequences;
Private - systematic, diversified, risk with local consequences;
Pure - risk, the consequences of which can only be damage or preservation of the current situation;
Speculative - a risk, one of the consequences of which may be a benefit - does not exist by definition, but is a dual random event combining both risk and chance.
By chance, the actual return on investment will always deviate from what is expected. Deviation includes the possibility of losing some or all of the original investment. It is usually measured by calculating the standard deviation of historical returns or average returns from a particular level. Risk in finance has no definition, but some theorists, notably Ron Dembo, have identified very general methods for estimating risk as the "regret rate" expected after a trade has closed. Such methods have been exceptionally successful in limiting bank interest rate risk in financial markets. Financial markets are considered to be the evidence base for common risk assessment methods. However, these methods are also difficult to understand. Mathematical difficulties collide with other social ones such as disclosure, evaluation and transparency. In particular, it is often difficult to say whether a particular financial instrument should be "insurable" (reducing measurable risk by neglecting certain random profits) or can be "played" in the market (increasing measurable risk and demonstrating catastrophic losses to the investor with the promise of very high profits). , which increases the expected value of the instrument). Since measures of regret rarely reflect actual human risk aversion, it can be difficult to determine whether the results of such transactions will be satisfactory. Risk seeking describes a person who has a positive second derivative of his utility function, willingly (in fact always pays a premium) assesses all risks in the economy, and therefore is unlikely to exist. In financial markets, it may be necessary to measure credit risk, which is likely in various areas of financial activity (direct lending, leasing, factoring), informational choice of moments of action and initial risk, model risk probability and legal risk, if, of course, there are regulatory or civil acts, taken as a result of a series of investor regrets.
The fundamental idea in finance is the relationship between risk and return. The greater the risk that an investor is willing to take, the greater the potential return. The reason for this is that investors need to be compensated for taking on additional risk. For example, US Treasury bonds are considered to be one of the safest investments and provide a lower percentage of income compared to corporate bonds. The reason for this is that a corporation is much more likely to go bankrupt than the US government. Because the risk of investing in a corporate bond is higher, investors are offered a higher percentage of return.
In information security, risk is defined as a function of three variables:
The probability of the existence of a threat;
The probability of the existence of insecurity;
Potential impact.
If any of these variables approaches zero, the overall risk approaches zero.
Risk functions
The 4 main functions of risk are:
Protective;
Analytical;
innovative;
Regulatory.
The protective function is manifested in the fact that risk is a normal state for an economic entity, therefore, a rational attitude towards failures should be developed. It has two aspects: historical and genetic (search for remedies) and social and legal (the need for legislative consolidation of the concept of "legitimate risk").
The analytical function is related to the fact that the presence of risk implies the need to choose one of the possible solutions, in connection with which the entrepreneur in the decision-making process analyzes all possible alternatives, choosing the most cost-effective and least risky. Depending on the specific content of the risk situation, alternativeness has varying degrees of complexity and is resolved in various ways. In simple situations, for example, when concluding a contract for the supply of raw materials, an entrepreneur usually relies on intuition and past experience. But with the optimal solution of one or another complex production problem, for example, making a decision on investing, it is necessary to use special methods of analysis. Considering the functions of entrepreneurial risk, it should be emphasized once again that, despite the significant loss potential that risk carries, it is also a source of possible profit. Therefore, the main task of the entrepreneur is not to avoid risk in general, but to choose decisions related to risk on the basis of objective criteria, namely: to what extent can the entrepreneur act when taking risks.
Entrepreneurial risk performs an innovative function by stimulating the search for non-traditional solutions to the problems facing the entrepreneur.
An analysis of foreign literature shows that international economic practice has accumulated positive experience in innovative risk management. Most firms, companies achieve success, become competitive on the basis of innovative economic activity associated with risk. Risky decisions, a risky type of management lead to more efficient production, from which entrepreneurs, consumers, and society as a whole benefit.
The regulatory function has a contradictory character and appears in two forms: constructive and destructive. Entrepreneurial risk is generally focused on producing meaningful results in non-traditional ways. Thus, it allows to overcome conservatism, dogmatism, inertia, psychological barriers that impede promising innovations. This is a constructive form of the regulatory function of entrepreneurial risk.
The constructive form of the regulatory function of risk lies in the fact that the ability to take risks is one of the ways of successful entrepreneurial activity.
However, risk can become a manifestation of adventurism, subjectivism, if the decision is made in conditions of incomplete information, without due consideration for the patterns of development of the phenomenon. In this case, the risk acts as a destabilizing factor. Therefore, although the risk is a "noble cause", it is not expedient to implement any decisions in practice, they must be justified, have a balanced, reasonable character.
The history of the concept of risk
The study of risk is closely connected with the development of probability theory.
In the Middle Ages, the development of mathematics was due, in particular, to an analytical interest in gambling - cards, dice.
In the 20th century, Knight's concept arose: "Risk versus Uncertainty"
In his pioneering work Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit (1921), Frank Knight offered an original perspective on the distinction between risk and uncertainty.
“… Uncertainty must be understood in some sense radically different from the familiar notion of risk, from which it has never been properly separated. … The essential fact is that "risk" means in certain cases an amount derived from a measurement, while in other cases it is something distinctly not of this nature; these are the far-reaching and critical differences in the relations of phenomena, depending on which one of these two concepts is really present and working. … It will be shown that measurable uncertainty, or proper "risk", we will use that particular term, differs from non-measurable one in such a way that the former is not really uncertainty at all. »
The 20th century saw the emergence of what is known as scenario analysis, which matured during the Cold War, the confrontation between global forces, especially between the US and the USSR, but was not widely adopted in insurance circles until the 1970s, when the oil crisis erupted and sparked a boom. methods of deeper comprehensive foresight.
Scenario analysis is a risk analysis method based on the analysis of project development scenarios. When carrying out scenario analysis, assumptions are formulated and a cash flow budget is calculated for not one, but three to five possible scenarios for the development of events. When the scenario changes, all parameters of the financial model can change.
Firstly, this approach helps to broadly characterize the potential benefits and losses of the project (to compare the scale of possible benefits and losses). Secondly, it allows you to give a probabilistic description of the project as a whole.
To calculate the probabilistic characteristics of the project, each of the scenarios is assigned its own probability of implementation P.
Then the integral characteristics of the project are calculated.
1. Mathematical expectation of NPV:
2. NPV standard deviation:
Knowing the mathematical expectation and standard deviation, we can try to plot the distribution curve for NPV (most often this is a normal distribution).
Based on this curve, the probability that NPV is less than zero can be found. At the same time, this will be the probability that the profitability of the project will be less than the discount rate adopted for calculating NPV.
A significant contribution to the theory of risk assessments was made during the development of radiation and environmental risk assessments, when the theory of “non-threshold risks” triumphed.
Governments around the world are making extensive use of sophisticated scientific risk assessment methods to set the most appropriate standards for, for example, environmental regulation, as already done by the US Environmental Protection Agency.
Psychology of risk
Currently, there are three main directions in the psychological studies of risk.
The first defines risk as "a situational characteristic of the actions (activities) of the subject, expressing the uncertainty of their result for the acting subject and the possibility of adverse consequences in case of failure." Here, the risk is considered within the framework of the concept of supra-situational activity and the theory of achievement motivation.
The concept of motivation to achieve success studies the motivational sphere of a person, which reflects "the desire of the individual for the best performance of activities in a situation of achievement."
The situation of achievement is characterized by the presence of two conditions: the task to be performed and the quality standard for the performance of this task. In this situation, two oppositely directed tendencies are manifested in the activity of the individual: the desire to achieve success and the desire to avoid failure.
Within the framework of supra-situational activity, the risk is always calculated on "situational advantages"; risk is motivated, expedient. This is a risk for something: for the sake of self-affirmation, money, etc.
As noted, "over-situational risk as a special form of manifestation of the activity of the subject is associated with the existence of over-situational activity, which is the ability of the subject to rise above the level of the requirements of the situation, to set goals that are excessive from the point of view of the original task."
The second direction considers risk from the point of view of decision theory as a situation of choice between alternative or possible courses of action.
This position is related to the measurement of the probability of an error or failure of a choice in a situation with several alternatives.
And, finally, the third one studies the relationship between individual and group behavior in situations of risk and represents the socio-psychological aspect of risk.
What the above concepts have in common is that they unanimously consider a risk situation as an assessment situation.
Risk expresses “a predictive assessment of the probability of an unfavorable outcome of a developing (not yet ended) situation. Risk is not a descriptive (attributive) characteristic of the situation, but an evaluation category, inextricably linked with a person's action, his evaluation - "evaluation of himself."
According to this definition, a risk situation arises only when there is a subject acting in this situation. It is important to note that a risk situation can be dangerous if the subject is forced to act in it, but a dangerous situation is not necessarily risky. For different subjects operating in the same conditions, the situation may turn out to be different - risky for one and non-risk for another.
Consequently, the concept of risk is inextricably linked with the idea of the subject's action and can be defined as a characteristic of this action. But the characterization of an action as risky is not attributive, but evaluative. Risk is an assessment of the possibility of carrying out an action, the possibility of achieving a result corresponding to the goal.
In this way, risk is"predictive, pre-action assessment, formed at the stage of organizing or planning an action."
In addition to predictive assessment, a necessary condition for a risk situation is uncertainty. And, if we consider the risk in the psychological aspect, then the main sources of uncertainty are in the acting subject itself. It is he who "weighs" the conditions under which the action will be carried out, the factors affecting the action and its future result.
And ultimately, according to a number of researchers, all sources of uncertainty are subjective and are determined by the ability and limitations of a person to take into account various factors that affect the action and its future result.
Sources of uncertainty can be both external and internal.
External sources have already been discussed above, and for psychological analysis, the identification of internal sources of uncertainty is of primary importance.
If we imagine the structure of activity as a “four-component model”, then internal sources include:
The cognitive component is the content of the reflection in the subjective image of individual properties and characteristics of reality, the properties of integral objects or phenomena, as well as their connections and relationships;
Motivational component - the motive of activity, the purpose of individual actions or a task;
Operational component of activity - plans, strategy and tactics.
Identification of internal sources of uncertainty allows you to understand how the subject forms an idea about the situation, about the future result of the action, which prevents him from acting "for sure" and getting the desired result, which creates a risk situation.
A rather important task is the need to assess the degree of uncertainty and identify factors that determine the criteria for making a decision by the subject about whether he should act, postpone the action or abandon it.
Thus, the factors that determine the criterion for making a decision include the significance of success or the cost of failure of a future action. If the significance is high, the subject is ready to take risks, i.e. “lower the decision criteria and take action.” In situations where undesirable consequences have a high price, the decision criteria increase, the subject's actions become more cautious.
Another factor is the subjective assessment of the costs of achieving the desired result. The more costs an action requires, the higher the criterion for deciding whether it is necessary.
A special group of factors influencing the choice of criterion is associated with the individual and personal characteristics of the subject. First of all, it is the propensity to risk.
Thus, the psychological study of risk should take place in the following areas:
The study of the reflexive nature of opportunities and limitations as a determining prerequisite for assessing the situation of uncertainty and making decisions in it;
A clearer systematization of sources of uncertainty in a risk situation;
The study of individual-personal features of the reflexive regulation of the subject's actions in a risk situation.
Public perception of risk
The presence or absence of a risky situation, a person's propensity for risk depends not only on social status or the influence of various factors, but also largely on how a person perceives a risky situation, what image of risk is best known to him.
A number of studies have shown that people are risk-averse when the potential loss is high and risk-averse when the potential gain is high. Or, in other words, the magnitude of the risk depends on “a subjective assessment of the likelihood of the event occurring.” More specific studies on the perception of probabilities in decision making, when inferences are drawn from probabilistic information, have found that the perception of risk depends on human biases or inclinations.
And, of course, the public perception of risk largely depends on its "semantic image", since in the ordinary sense, risk, depending on the context, has different semantic meanings.
Researchers (in particular, Ortvin Renn, 1992) identify "four main semantic images of risk in public perception":
Imminent Danger ("Sword of Damocles");
Slow killers ("Pandora's Box");
Cost-benefit ratio (Scales of Athena);
Thrill-seekers ("The Image of Hercules").
In the first case, the risk is seen as a random threat that can cause an unpredictable disaster, and there is no time to deal with this danger. This image is associated with artificial sources of risk, which have a great catastrophic potential. This is such an accident that causes fear and a desire to avoid it. This does not include natural disasters - they are perceived as "regular" and therefore predictable, unlike the risk of large-scale technology. This risk image includes, for example, nuclear power plants.
In the second case, the risk is seen as an invisible threat to health or well-being. The effect is usually distant in time and only affects a few people at a time. These risks are more likely to be learned from others than experienced firsthand. Central to such risks is that "a certain degree of credibility is required in the institutions that provide information and manage the hazard." If trust is lost, the public demands immediate action and blames these institutions for everything.
Typical examples are food additives, radioactive substances.
In the third case, the risk is considered on the basis of the balance of income and losses. This image is used by people only in the perception of money gains and losses. For example, betting and gambling, which require complex probabilistic justification. People are usually able to perform such probabilistic reasoning, but only in the context of gambling, insurance.
The fourth image includes the desire of people to feel themselves in a state of risk, to experience thrills. These risks include all leisure activities that require skill to overcome dangerous situations. Such risks are always voluntary and require personal control over the degree of risk.
The listed concepts of risk show that "an intuitive understanding of risk is multidimensional and cannot be narrowed down to the product of probabilities and consequences." The perception of risk varies greatly depending on the social and cultural environment. But nevertheless, for almost all countries there is a common feature: most people perceive risk as a diverse phenomenon and integrate their ideas into a joint system in accordance with the nature of the risk and its cause.
People respond to a risky situation according to their perception of risk, not according to an objective level of risk or a scientific assessment of risk. Scientific assessments affect individual responses insofar as they correspond to individual perceptions. And in the individual perception of risk, the magnitude of the consequence has more weight than the likelihood of its occurrence.
In addition, the individual perception of risk is influenced not only by the assessment of the magnitude of the consequences, but also by the commonness of the risk situation, the presence or absence of group pressure, the social status of a person, his psychological characteristics, etc.
Behavior of subjects in a risk situation
When considering this problem, several aspects are distinguished, the essence of which can be fixed in the form of questions:
What are the features of risk depending on the specific subject carrying out risky activities?
What and how is the peculiarity of risk manifested depending on the sphere in which the actions of the subject are realized?
How do social, psychological and socio-psychological factors influence the choice of risky alternatives by a particular subject?
In order to answer the first question, it is necessary to reveal the content of the concept of "subject".
The subject is the bearer of object-practical activity and cognition, the source of activity directed at the object. From this understanding of this category, the following main types of subjects of social action can be distinguished:
An individual - to the extent that he is the bearer of certain social, psychological and socio-psychological qualities and properties;
Group - is a relatively small community of people who are in personal communication and interaction;
Collective - a social community that unites people who carry out joint activities, engaged in solving a specific social problem;
Social group - a relatively stable collection of people who have common interests, values;
Society - the largest community of people, united according to certain criteria;
Human civilization (humanity) as a real integrity.
The specificity of the attitude of social actors to activities with elements of risk is determined by a number of circumstances. For example, the prerequisites for unequal behavior of members of the management team and performers are created by the fact that it is the former who make decisions that the latter execute. The attitude towards decision-making with a certain degree of risk is influenced by differences in social status - it is usually higher for the management team than for performers.
In addition, differences in attitudes towards risk also depend on which subject - an individual or a group - makes a decision related to risk. The process of group decision-making, in comparison with the individual, has some features: collective decisions, as a rule, are less subjective and are associated with a greater likelihood of implementation.
A.P. Algin notes in his work that “in the course of an experimental study of the processes of group decision-making, the phenomena of shifting the risk of group polarization were discovered, indicating that group decisions are not reducible to the sum of individual ones, but are a specific product of group interaction. The phenomenon of risk shift means that after a group discussion, the level of riskiness of group or individual decisions increases compared to the initial decisions of group members.
This pattern means that a person acting in a group is ready to make decisions with a greater level of risk than an individual acting alone. It is group pressure that plays a significant role in changing the level of riskiness of decisions made.
The discovery of risk shift has raised the question of why group decisions are associated with greater risk than individual decisions. Several hypotheses have been formulated to explain this phenomenon.
These are primarily the following hypotheses:
The hypothesis of diffusion (separation) of responsibility;
Familiarization hypothesis;
leadership hypothesis;
Utility change hypothesis;
The hypothesis of risk as a value.
The responsibility diffusion hypothesis is based on the fact that "group discussion generates emotional contacts between group members and leads to the fact that the individual will experience less responsibility for risky decisions, since they are developed by the whole group." Group discussion reduces the anxiety of group members in situations of risk. If the supposed risky decisions lead to failure, the individual will not be alone responsible - it will spread to all members of the group.
Thus, according to the responsibility diffusion hypothesis, the group makes a decision with a higher level of risk because the responsibility for it is distributed among all members of the group and this reduces the fear of failure.
The Familiarization Hypothesis suggests that the risk shift is not a group effect per se, but is a "pseudo-group effect", i.e. although it occurs in a group, it actually does not apply to the consequences of group influence. According to this hypothesis, "Any procedure that increases familiarity with a problem that involves risk encourages participants in the experiment to take greater risks about the problem."
Thus, the risk shift is not a product of a group discussion, but the result of courage, riskiness, which manifests itself as more and more knowledge of the problem, “entering” into it during the discussion.
The leadership hypothesis is based on the study of the qualities of group members who are perceived by the group as leaders. This hypothesis states that people who are initially (before the discussion) more inclined to choose risky decisions tend to lead in group discussions as well. Therefore, the ultimate degree of group risk may be the result of the influence of the group leader.
For example, this hypothesis is confirmed by the peculiarities of the actions of groups of offenders. Studies show that about 54-56% of crimes are committed by teenagers not alone, but in groups. Approximately 30% of the surveyed groups had a pronounced leader.
The utility hypothesis assumes that as a result of the exchange of information in the course of the discussion, there is a change in the utility that members of the decision-making group attribute to the available alternatives. As a result of group interaction, the utility of the risk also changes, due to the fact that the subjective values of the value attributed to the risk by individual members of the group become similar.
The hypothesis of risk as a value was first proposed by R. Brown. The main idea is that people value risk and in a group situation, many of them, including "cautious individuals", tend to take more risky decisions in order to increase their status in the group. Therefore, in the context of a group discussion, they change their assessments towards greater risk in order to create an image of themselves as people who are decisive, capable and able to take risks.
Features of the manifestation of risk are associated not only with the activities of specific subjects, but also with the scope of the implementation of the subject's activities.
If we consider risk as a “specific type of activity under conditions of uncertainty”, and activity as “a process of expedient transformation of natural and social reality by a person”, then from this point of view there is a risk of economic, pedagogical, sports, political, professional, etc.
A feature of, for example, occupational risk is that it appears in the form of a possible danger, i.e. a person carrying out a certain professional activity is constantly in a situation of "inevitable" risk. A quantitative measure of the occupational risk of death can be taken as the probability of death of a person per unit of time: for example, per year.
People can take risks in the performance of their professional duties for a variety of reasons: because of a falsely understood pride, for fear of undermining their own prestige in the eyes of others, for the sake of fame or material incentives, a sense of duty, etc.
Sports risk is associated with the study of the attitude of the athlete's personality to risk. Risk for many athletes acts as a pleasure, an emotional stimulus, a special form of physical lift that life creates on the verge of danger. The craving for risk can also be determined by the desire to prevail over the forces of nature, over oneself, to defeat the opponent.
When considering the issue of the influence of various factors on the choice of risky alternatives by the subject, several points of view are distinguished:
The subjectivist point of view - its essence lies in the fact that the decisions that a person chooses are determined by his personal properties and qualities: such as temperament, willpower, etc.;
The situational point of view assumes that the behavior of people in a situation of choice is mainly controlled by the external environment: the organizational structure of enterprises, the media, etc.;
The third point of view combines the two previous positions, therefore it is the most objective and is based on the “recognition of the expediency to distinguish among the factors influencing the choice of one or another risky alternative or the rejection of risk, social, psychological and socio-psychological, which dialectically interact, mutually influence each other. on a friend."
In the structure of social factors, a special place belongs to phenomena that can be called "general sociological". These primarily include a certain organization of society, the level of development of productive forces, the system of state power, etc. They have an indirect impact on the processes of choosing decisions, risky alternatives, and accepting a certain degree of risk.
The social predisposition of an individual, group, team to accept or reject risk largely depends on the current management structure, organizational environment, etc.
Risk taking is not just a personality trait. It manifests itself differently in different conditions.
A.P. Algin notes that “if the planning system is focused primarily on quantitative indicators and is based on administration, then, obviously, there are few daredevils in such conditions to take risks. It is more prudent to abandon risky, albeit more promising actions, decisions ... If reasonable risk is considered the norm in an organization, then employees here will be much more likely to make bold, proactive decisions compared to a team where risk is considered a "social evil".
The choice by the subject of a specific alternative associated with a certain degree of risk depends not only on the influence of the external environment, but also on the action of psychological factors. The choice of solution is influenced by individuality, temperament, psychological make-up, motives, and relatively stable personality traits.
For example, such a volitional quality as decisiveness (a person’s ability to make decisions independently, the subject’s ability to boldly take responsibility for the chosen decision) is necessary in difficult situations when risk-related actions and a choice from several alternatives are required. A decisive person is more inclined to choose risky decisions, in contrast to a person who is dominated by such a quality as caution.
Together with social and psychological factors, the direction of choice and the attitude of the subject to risk are also influenced by socio-psychological factors. These include: belonging of a person to a certain social group, the specifics of interaction between members of the group, its organizational structure, the degree of consistency among members of a group of different interests, etc.
Impact of Risk on Team Cohesion
The impact of risk on team cohesion depends on many factors. Among them, one can distinguish both subjective and objective. The subjective, first of all, include psychological factors that have already been considered earlier, and the assumption that what kind of person is, such a level of decisions in risky situations should be expected from a person.
But T.V. Kornilova notes that "a fairly significant psychological pattern is the discrepancy between individual curves of personal and intellectual development." A person may be ready for some decisions intellectually, but not grow up to them personally, and therefore not cope with the situation.
So, for example, studies show that former losers should not fall into top-class managers (at the level of the board of directors). The fact is that they usually cannot put corporate or other people's interests above personal ones. For this, it is necessary that in a person’s youth the success of achievement motivation be sufficiently reinforced; only such a person will not be afraid of the success of another if his own interests are affected as a result. In other words, the psychological advice of these studies is: beware of failures, they are not inclined to contribute to the success of others, so they will not be able to be good leaders.
Therefore, naturally, a team whose members are ready to make decisions in a situation of uncertainty and in the past have not often been “losers” will be more united in a situation of risk. This is due, first of all, to the fact that in this group there will be no disagreements and prerequisites for conflict: people are able to put common interests above personal ones and not focus on personal interest in solving the problem.
Also, subjective factors affecting the cohesion of the team in a risky situation include the degree of knowledge or ignorance about the risk. The statement is known that "knowledge about the possibility of an event or its consequences helps to bring it closer or avoid it."
For example, during the Great Patriotic War, knowledge of the possibility of enemy troops entering the city could mobilize and rally the townspeople, since under these circumstances the degree of risk of "imminent danger" increased.
But Kozeletsky Yu. argues that often "knowledge makes us cowards." And it is precisely from the knowledge of the degree of risk that the cohesion of the team decreases.
The news of an existing danger, such as the presence of an explosive in a room, can lead to chaos in the group and reduce cohesion to zero.
The objective factors include the phenomenon of the "son of a bitch": here the conflict between the individual and the group is considered.
A person is considered as a carrier of a certain degree of risk for the team. This may be a risk to physical well-being (for example, the appearance in the team of a person prone to physical violence), the risk of losing value orientations (for example, the appearance of a Social Democrat in the liberal party), etc.
And in a conflict with one person, when there is a threat of the collapse of the team, the group integrates, unites, despite the previous disagreements.
Sometimes this phenomenon is caused artificially to integrate the group and increase its cohesion.
In addition, the objective factors influencing the degree of team cohesion include the degree of danger that threatens this team.
It has been established that the degree of group cohesion is linearly dependent on the degree of risk. As a rule, the higher the level of risk, the higher the level of team cohesion.
Thus, we can conclude that, although a risky situation can not only serve as a good reason for organizing subjects, but also disorganize the activities of the team (the phenomenon of “knowledge-ignorance” about the risk), but in most cases the risk situation increases the degree of cohesion of the group.
Creating Risk
Creating risk is a fundamental issue for all forms of risk assessment. In particular, because bounded rationality (our mental faculties are overwhelmed, so we limit ourselves to mental shortcuts - “hot keys”) significantly devalues the risk of extreme events, because their probability is extremely small for intuitive assessment. For example, one of the leading causes of death, traffic accidents, is caused by drunken drivers in part because any given driver creates the problem himself, largely or completely ignoring the risk of a serious or fatal accident.
The above examples of body, threat, cost of life, professional ethics and regret show that the risk corrector or expert is often faced with a serious conflict of interest. The expert also faces cognitive bias and cultural bias, and one cannot always be sure that moral bias can be avoided. The creation of risk is a risk in itself, which increases as the expert is the least likely to be the client.
For example, extremely dangerous events, in which all participants do not want to be again, can be ignored in the analysis despite the fact that the events have occurred and have a non-zero probability. Or, an event everyone agrees to be inevitable may be removed from analysis for reasons of greed or unwillingness to admit that it is believed to be inevitable. These human tendencies to error and wishful thinking often affect even the most rigorous applications of the scientific method and are a major concern of the philosophy of science.
Any decision making under uncertainty must take into account cognitive bias, cultural bias, and terminological bias: "No group of risk assessors is free from 'group thought': accepting obviously wrong answers simply because people are usually socially ill to disagree."
One effective way to address "creating risk" problems is through risk assessment or risk measurement (although some argue that risk cannot be measured, only estimated) is to ensure that scenarios, as a strict rule, must include unpopular and possibly improbable (in a group) with a low probability of high impact "threats" and/or "vision events". This allows participants in the risk assessment to subtly instill fear of the other and other personal ideals so that people act differently for any reason other than following formal requirements and instructions.
For example, a private advanced analyst with an air attack scenario might be able to reduce this threat to the US budget. This could be admitted as a formal risk with a nominal low probability. This would make it possible to deal with threats even though the threats were dismissed by senior government analysts. Even a small investment in diligence on the subject could possibly have thwarted or prevented such an attack - or at least "insured" against the risk that the public administration might be mistaken.
Fear as an intuitive assessment of risk
At this time, we must rely on our own fears and hesitations to insulate ourselves from circumstances most deeply unknown to us. In his book The Gift of Fear, Gavin de Becker states: “True fear is a gift, it is a signal of survival, which, however, sounds only in the face of danger. All other unguaranteed fears dominate us in a way that no other living being on Earth allows itself to do. It shouldn't be like this." Risk must be defined in such a way as to be the way we collectively measure and share this "true fear" - an amalgam of rational doubt, reckless fear, and a host of other "non-quantitative" aberrations in our own experience.
The field of behavioral finance focuses on human risk aversion, asymmetric regret, and other ways in which human financial behavior changes from what analysts usually explore "rationally". Risk in this case is the degree of uncertainty associated with the return on assets. Recognizing, and respecting, the irrational influence on human decision making can go far on its own to reduce disasters due to naive risk assessments that pretend to be rational, but actually just combine many separate biases into one rational assessment.
What is the difference between risk and threat
In scenario analysis, "risk" is distinguished from "threat". A threat is an unexplored negative event that some analysts may not be able to evaluate in their risk assessment because the event never occurred, and for which no information is available on effective preventive measures (steps taken to reduce the likelihood or impact of a possible future event). ). This difference is most clearly illustrated by the precautionary principle, which seeks to reduce a threat by requiring it to be reduced to a set of well-defined risks before moving on to actions, projects, innovations, or experiments. Threat examples:
Natural disasters: earthquake, flood, tsunami, volcanic eruption, forest fires;
Anthropogenic disasters: nuclear threat, ecological threat.
Risk example:
natural disasters: tsunamis, according to the results of the analysis, may occur with a probability of no more than 1 time in 100 years. The wave height in the affected area will be no more than 10 points on the Richter scale, which will lead to the destruction of the perimeter fence of the enterprise at a distance of 15 meters and the edge of the left wing of the building materials storage warehouse No. 3 (see the attached diagram). The total damage, taking into account possible environmental pollution, will not exceed 173 thousand rubles in current prices. Losses among personnel are possible only in case of gross violation of the rules of action in an emergency. Identification of an emergency will occur in at least 15 minutes, and notification of personnel in 12 minutes. 30 sec. The probability of loss of personnel per employee H = 1x10-12 ... Appendix. Plan of measures to reduce the level of the specified risk and cost estimates.
Risk assessment and forecasting
The means of measuring and assessing risk varies as it broadly covers different professions, and in fact means means that may be defined by different professions, e.g. a doctor manages medical risk, a civil engineer manages the risk of structural failure, etc. A professional code of ethics is usually focuses on risk assessment and risk mitigation (by a professional on behalf of the client, the public, society or life in general).
The risk is mainly assessed by a probabilistic characteristic (a dimensionless value from 0 to 1), but the frequency of risk realization can also be used. The frequency of implementation is the number of cases of a possible manifestation of a hazard in a certain period of time. For example, per year, then the units of measurement can be as follows - 1 / year or people / year, etc.
Two long-established points of view on risk can be distinguished - the first is based on scientific and technical assessments: the so-called theoretical risk, the second depends on the human perception of risk: the so-called effective risk. These two points of view are constantly in conflict in the social, human and political sciences. In recent years, in connection with the emergence of a new direction in the theory of probability - eventology - the concept of eventological risk has arisen, which can be considered as the first serious attempt to combine both theoretical and effective risk in one concept.
Eventological risk
Eventology directly introduces man and mind as an eventological distribution into scientific and mathematical research; thus providing an opportunity not only to develop effective eventological models of various aspects of human risk perception, but also to give such a general mathematical definition of "eventological risk" (as an eventological distribution of a certain set of past, present and future events), which, without conflicting with the majority of existing definitions of theoretical and effective risk, absorbs them as numerous private options
Statistical risk is often reduced to the probability of some undesirable event. Typically, the probability of such an event and some estimate of its expected harm are combined into one plausible outcome that combines a set of risk, regret, and reward probabilities into an expected value for that outcome.
Effective risk
While it is usually not possible to directly measure effective risk, there are many informal methods used to estimate or "measure" it. Formal methods most often measure one of the risk measures: the so-called VaR (Value At Risk).
Risk sensitive industries
Some industries manage risk in a highly-defined quantitative way. These include the nuclear and aircraft industries, where the possible failure of a complex set of designed systems could lead to very undesirable results. The total risk is the sum of the individual risks of the individual classes. In the nuclear industry, "effect" is often measured by the level of radiological radiation outside the emitting area, the measurement is often combined into five or six bands, ten gradations wide.
Risks are assessed using event tree methods. Where these risks are low, they are generally considered to be "widely acceptable". A higher level of risk (usually up to 10 to 100 times considered widely acceptable) must be justified against the costs of reducing it and the possible benefits that make it bearable - these risks are considered "tolerable". Risks outside this level are classified as "intolerable".
The level of risk "widely acceptable" is taken into account by governments of various countries - the earliest attempt was made by the British government and academic researcher F.R. people seem to find it acceptable. This led to the so-called Farmer's Curve of the acceptable probability of risk events versus their consequences.
Such a technique is generally referred to as Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), or Probabilistic Safety Assessment.
Risk management
Risk management is a system for managing risk and economic (more precisely, financial) relations that arise in the process of this management, and includes the strategy and tactics of management actions.
Management strategy refers to the directions and methods of using funds to achieve the goal. Each method corresponds to a certain set of rules and restrictions for making the best decision. The strategy helps to concentrate efforts on various solutions that do not contradict the general line of the strategy and discard all other options. After reaching the set goal, this strategy ceases to exist, since new goals put forward the task of developing a new strategy.
Tactics - practical methods and techniques of management to achieve a set goal in specific conditions. The task of management tactics is to choose the most optimal solution and the most constructive management methods and techniques in a given economic situation.
Risk management as a management system consists of two subsystems: the managed subsystem - the object of management and the management subsystem - the subject of management. The object of management in risk management is risky investments of capital and economic relations between business entities in the process of risk realization. Such economic relations include relations between the insured and the insurer, the borrower and the lender, between entrepreneurs, competitors, etc.
The subject of management in risk management is a group of managers (financial manager, insurance specialist, etc.), which, through various options for its impact, performs the purposeful functioning of the management object. This process can be carried out only if the necessary information is circulated between the subject and the object of management. The management process always involves the receipt, transfer, processing and practical use of information. The acquisition of information that is reliable and sufficient under specific conditions plays a major role, as it helps to make the right decision on actions in a risk environment. Information support consists of various kinds of information: statistical, economic, commercial, financial, etc.
This information includes information about the probability of a particular insured event, event, the presence and magnitude of demand for goods, capital, financial stability and solvency of its customers, partners, competitors, etc.
Whoever owns the information owns the market. Many types of information are subject to trade secrets and may be one of the types of intellectual property, and therefore be made as a contribution to the authorized capital of a joint-stock company or partnership. The fact that the financial manager has sufficient and reliable business information allows him to quickly make financial and commercial decisions, affects the correctness of such decisions. This leads to lower losses and higher profits.
Any management decision is based on information, and the quality of this information is important, which should be assessed when it is received, and not when transmitted. Information now loses relevance very quickly, it should be used promptly.
An economic entity must be able not only to collect information, but to store and retrieve it if necessary. The best card file for collecting information is a computer that has both a good memory and the ability to quickly find the information you need.
Here are the main methods for reducing the degree of risk:
Diversification, which is the process of distributing invested funds between various capital investment objects that are not directly related to each other, in order to reduce the degree of risk and loss of income;
Acquisition of additional information about the selection and results. More complete information allows you to make an accurate forecast and reduce risk, which makes it very valuable;
Limitation is the setting of a limit, that is, the maximum amount of expenses, sales, loans, etc., used by banks to reduce the degree of risk when issuing loans, business entities to sell goods on credit, provide loans, determine the amount of capital investment, etc. .;
Self-insurance occurs when an entrepreneur prefers to insure himself rather than buy insurance from an insurance company; self-insurance is a decentralized form, the creation of in-kind and monetary insurance funds directly in business entities, especially in those whose activities are at risk; the main task of self-insurance is to promptly overcome temporary difficulties in financial and commercial activities;
Insurance - protection of the property interests of economic entities and citizens in the event of the occurrence of certain events (insured events) at the expense of monetary funds formed from the insurance premiums they pay.
Diversification allows you to avoid part of the risk in the distribution of capital between various types of activities (for example, the purchase by an investor of shares of five different joint-stock companies instead of shares of one company increases the probability of receiving an average income by five times and, accordingly, reduces the degree of risk by five times).
Sources and links
smoney.ru - analytical business weekly
en.wikipedia.org - a resource with articles on many topics, the free encyclopedia Wikipedia
grandars.ru - economist's encyclopedia
risk24.ru - risk management, enterprise risk management
askins.ru - website about insurance and risk management
bibliotekar.ru - electronic library Librarian.Ru
stroifinanc.ru - StroyFinance
allbest.ru - global network of abstracts
psyh.ru - site of the magazine "Our psychology"
radiuscity.ru - site of the magazine "Radius City"
1atoll.ru - site of the production and commercial company "Atoll"
risk-manage.ru - community of risk managers, website "Risk Management in Russia"
youtube.com - YouTube, the largest video hosting in the world
images.yandex.ru - search for images on the Internet through Yandex